000
FXUS62 KCAE 201641
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1141 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD DRY HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH...AHEAD OF A DRY REINFORCING COLD FRONT
THAT WILL SLIP THOUGH EARLY TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD DRY HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER WILL BUILD DOWN INTO OUR REGION FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL VA THROUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
INTO NORTHERN GA/AL WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. ALREADY
SEEING SLIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 20S. SUNNY SKIES. MAX TEMPS
THICKNESS TECHNIQUE BASED ON THE CHS/FFC SOUNDING INDICATING
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S AND MID 50S BASED ON THE GSO SOUNDING.
THEREFORE... HIGH IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S STILL LOOK
REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR FRI
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TO RESUME LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY. GOOD CAA AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON FRI...A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE AND LOCAL NUMBERS VERY
CLOSE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL STAY CLOSE TO CONSENSUS. TIME
SECTIONS SHOW SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...BUT AIRMASS DRIES OUT FOR FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANADIAN...GFS...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS RUN.
A DRY NW UPPER FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH A SERIES OF
UPPER DISTURBANCES...THAT MAY ONLY BRING SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS...AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TO REMAIN
OVER OUR REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALSO PROVIDE FOR A
SERIES OF CONTINUED COLD MORNINGS. IT APPEARS THAT A FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE RECOVERY TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
BECOMING WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS. COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WITH A FEW STRATO-CUMULUS POSSIBLE
AND WIND SHIFT TO NORTHWEST.
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...10
AVIATION...10
