000
FXUS64 KFWD 131721 AAC
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1121 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2010
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING
MVFR CIGS NEAR PARIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ERODE THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS BECOME LGT/VAR LATER TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
91/DUNN
&&
.UPDATE...
12Z FWD SOUNDING AND KFWS RADAR VWP STILL INDICATING 25-45 KT...
UNIDIRECTIONAL NW FLOW THROUGH 700 MB WHICH IS EASILY TRANSFERRING
MOMENTUM DOWN AND INCREASING WINDS MORE THAN FORECAST PER 16Z OBS
AND WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO BREEZY CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON...
THOUGH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING TREND ON WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED MID
AFTERNOON/3-4 PM AND AFTER. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN GREAT SHAPE.
05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM CST SAT MAR 13 2010/
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DECREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLOWER WIND
SPEEDS THAN ON FRIDAY. WE STILL EXPECT WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15 TO 20
MPH RANGE AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR MIXES
DOWN. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM WARMING INTO THE
MID 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE SOME WRAP AROUND CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOW DAYTIME WARMING A BIT.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND RESULT
IN ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/FAR WEST TEXAS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20...WHERE MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS WILL BE THE
STRONGEST. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN BY THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE
COMING IN LINE WITH PRECIPITATION RETURNING TO NORTH TEXAS ON THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS LOW AND AWAIT SOME RUN TO RUN
MODEL CONSISTENCY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 68 44 72 47 63 / 0 0 0 5 10
WACO, TX 71 41 74 46 67 / 0 0 5 5 10
PARIS, TX 60 40 67 42 63 / 0 0 0 5 5
DENTON, TX 67 40 72 45 63 / 0 0 0 5 10
MCKINNEY, TX 65 38 68 43 63 / 0 0 0 5 5
DALLAS, TX 67 45 73 47 64 / 0 0 0 5 10
TERRELL, TX 65 41 71 45 65 / 0 0 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 67 44 74 47 67 / 0 0 0 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 73 40 76 45 68 / 0 0 5 5 10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
