000
FXUS63 KSGF 151812
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
112 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS PACKAGE DEAL WITH PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH TODAY/TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW STARTING TO EJECT OUT OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AS KICKER OVER NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS...THROUGH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BACK INTO WESTERN TEXAS THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWING SOME CONVECTION ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET...BUT THIS AREA IS RAPIDLY
MOVING OUT OF OUR CWA INTO NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
WESTERN MISSOURI AFTER 12Z THIS MORNING AND THROUGH EASTERN
MISSOURI BY EARLY EVENING AS UPPER LOW EJECTS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA THIS MORNING AND THEN INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS
EVENING. EXPECT FROPA HERE AT SPRINGFIELD SHORTLY AFTER NOON TIME
TODAY...WHICH WILL PROBABLY CORRESPOND TO OUR HIGH TEMPERATURE.
GFS SHOWING 850MB TEMPS FALLING FROM 14C THIS MORNING TO ABOUT 8C
THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE MOST DECENT LIFT AND DYNAMICS WILL OCCUR
OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AS THIS HAPPENS AND HAVE DECREASED QPFS AND
REMOVED TSTM WORDING FROM THE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL MOST LIKELY BE OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY WILL MOST LIKELY SEE THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES AND GREATEST INSTABILITY.
REST OF WEEK LOOKS DRY AND COOL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO IOWA AND KEEPS US IN NORTHERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH MID 60
HIGHS AND LOW 40 LOWS ACROSS THE CWA. BY FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE STATE AND WINDS DIE OFF. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS
CONTINUE TO LOOK THE COLDEST AND HAVE FORECAST LOWS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN ZONES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THIS
MORNINGS HWO THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST FOR OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FURTHER EXPANSION WEST.
AFTER SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN AND WE START TO SEE
ANOTHER WARM UP IN TEMPERATURES. NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTHERN KANSAS/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
CLAYCOMB
&&
.AVIATION...
FRONT ROUGHLY ALONG A COU-SGF-HRO LINE AT 18Z. RAIN AND SHOWERS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ARE DROPPING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
INTO THE IFR CATEGORY. MAY SEE SOME TSRA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY EAST OF THE SGF TERMINAL. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY AS THE 850 MB THERMAL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
GAEDE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
