000
FXUS63 KILX 201104
AFDILX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
504 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 307 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST CWA EARLY LAST EVENING AND
WAS NOW CENTERED CLOSE TO THE OHIO RIVER. STRATOCUMULUS DECK WAS
LAGGING BEHIND A BIT...BUT NOW COVERED THE NORTHWEST 2/3 OF THE
CWA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE NEXT IN THE SHORTWAVE SERIES
APPROACHING NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
ISSUES OF THE DAY INCLUDE SKY COVER FOR TODAY...AND THE EFFECTS OF
THE SUNDAY/MONDAY STORM SYSTEM OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHORTWAVE TO QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WITH DRIER LOW LEVELS...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES FROM THIS FEATURE. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO ERODE
THOUGH...AS INVERSION TIGHTENS AROUND 850 MB. MUCH OF THE DAY
EXPECTED TO BE CLOUDY...WITH SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARD LATE
AFTERNOON. MORE RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND
SHOULD BE CENTERED IN MISSOURI BY MIDDAY FRIDAY AND ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHALLENGE TO A
SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CWA...AND ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTHWEST. DID ADD A
FEW FLURRIES FOR AREAS WEST OF I-55 DURING THE MORNING.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
LONGER RANGE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH CUTOFF UPPER LOW
WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS ILLINOIS
SUNDAY NIGHT. REMOVED RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING AND CONVERTED
THE AFTERNOON TO SILENT 20 POPS...AS THE AIR WILL BE QUITE DRY
INITIALLY AND IT WILL TAKE MUCH OF THE DAY TO GET SUFFICIENTLY
MOIST. SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EVEN...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING BEFORE HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE AND THICKEN. ONCE
PRECIPITATION FORMS DURING THE EVENING...IT SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT
AND MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MUCH OF
THIS TO BE RAIN. MAY SEE SOME WRAPAROUND FLURRIES LATER MONDAY
THOUGH.
CUTOFF LOW TO BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST AT THAT TIME
RANGE THOUGH.
GEELHART
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED 504 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
POSITIVE SIDE IS CIG HEIGHTS WILL BE ABOVE 3KFT. SO VFR CIGS IS
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR CLOUDS TO BEGIN
TO THIN OUT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED EARLY THIS EVENING...AND
THEN BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. THIS APPEARS REASONABLE AND WILL
FOLLOW THIS TREND IN NEW TAFS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY NEXT
24HRS AND COULD BE TAD GUSTY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
AUTEN
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
