000
FXUS66 KOTX 141138
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
438 AM PDT SUN MAR 14 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL ENTER A DRY WEATHER PERIOD THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MILD ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. BY MID-WEEK THE REGION WILL COOL DOWN BACK TO NORMAL
WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SATELLITE INDICATES A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. A DEEP AND AGGRESSIVELY DIGGING
BROAD GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO DIRECT THE NEXT DEEP
PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED INTO WESTERN CANADA...WITH THE FRINGE OF
THIS FETCH CRESTING THE RIDGE AS VARYING DEGREES OF HIGH CIRRUS.
LATEST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS RELATIVELY SIMPLE
FLOW REGIME AND FORECAST FIELD OF MOTION. TODAY WILL BE A QUIET
...MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION. THE AIR MASS
IS MORE STABLE WITH THE RIDGE PROMOTING A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN
THE MID-LEVELS...AND THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS IS DRY. THUS AFTERNOON
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE EFFECTIVELY INHIBITED...AND SOLAR
HEATING WILL EFFICIENTLY WARM THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAUSING QUICK
RISES OFF OF COOL MORNING TEMPERATURES ONCE THE SUN RISES. TODAY'S
HIGHS WILL LIKELY BREAK 50 DEGREES AT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS.
TONIGHT NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL DRY PATTERN...EXCEPT THE
FRINGE OF THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FEED WILL BEGIN TO BREAK INTO THE
REGION AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST INTO MONTANA. THIS
INCREASED MOISTURE WILL MANIFEST ITSELF AS INCREASING HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH ONLY A GHOST OF A CHANCE OF HIGH MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE CASCADE CREST AND PEAKS OF THE OKANOGAN
HIGHLANDS. OTHERWISE IN GENERAL A COOL AND BENIGN WEATHER NIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES NOT AS LOW AS THIS MORNING'S WIDESPREAD SUB-
FREEZING READINGS WITH MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. /FUGAZZI
MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT...THE INLAND NW REMAINS IN A MILD S TO SW
FLOW...WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC COAST AND RIDGE
AXIS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. MOISTURE RIDING UP THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO THE CWA...ESPECIALLY
THE NORTHWEST HALF. A RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND NEAR THE
CASCADES...WHICH REMAINS CLOSER TO THE STORM TRACK...DEEPER
MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. /JCOTE
FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
CYCLONE OFF THE PACIFIC NW COAST WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SE
BC. AS THIS OCCURS...A TRAILING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SWING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WHILE THE GFS
STILL BRINGS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER THAN
THE EC...IT HAS TRENDED CONSIDERABLY TOWARDS THE EC SOLUTION
DURING THE PAST 24HRS. AS A RESULT...TUESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE
WARMEST OF DAY OF THE YEAR THUS FAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE WA AND THE CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE. AS
THE MODELS HAVE ZEROED IN ON A COMMON SOLUTION...IT APPEARS THE
BULK OF THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SE BC. AS A
RESULT...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH DURING MUCH OF
THE LIGHT PRECIP EVENT ON TUESDAY NIGHT. /NEUMAN
WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY...AFTER THE TUESDAYS SYSTEM PASSES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
DEVELOPING DRIER WESTERLY FLOW. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER
IDAHO. THURSDAY...THE FLOW TURNS NNW AND A DISTURBANCE DROPS IN
FROM CANADA...ELEVATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLIGHTLY OVER FAR
EAST WA AND ID. THEREAFTER MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY FALTERS
A BIT. YET AVERAGE CONSENSUS BEGINS TO BUILD A RIDGE ONTO THE
COAST AND SHIFTS THE MEAN STORM TRACK EAST...THOUGH THE FLOW
REMAINS NW TO WNW. SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER THE ID
PANHANDLE IN THIS FLOW. THERE HINTS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE DRY/PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS...WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...ARE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE INLAND NW. /JCOTE
&&
.AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PLACID SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER SHALLOW MORNING FOG AND
STRATUS IN THE VALLEYS NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA BASIN AND AT KCOE.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THIS FOG AND STRATUS COULD ENCOMPASS
THE KSFF AND KGEG TAF SITES FOR OCCASIONAL LIFR CONDITIONS FROM
12Z TO 15Z...WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR
BETWEEN 15Z AND 17Z IF THIS FOG FORMS AT ALL. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z MONDAY. HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE CRESTING THE RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC WILL ALLOW MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND THICKEN AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WITH
ALTOCUMULUS DECKS AND THICK CIRRUS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THESE CEILINGS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 120 KFT MSL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 52 34 57 39 61 33 / 0 0 0 0 10 60
COEUR D'ALENE 53 30 59 37 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 10 60
PULLMAN 52 32 60 40 63 33 / 0 0 0 0 10 60
LEWISTON 58 32 64 44 68 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 50
COLVILLE 55 32 58 34 63 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 60
SANDPOINT 49 28 55 32 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 60
KELLOGG 51 30 57 33 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 10 70
MOSES LAKE 54 37 58 40 64 32 / 0 0 0 0 10 20
WENATCHEE 54 35 56 38 59 34 / 0 0 0 10 10 20
OMAK 53 34 55 39 59 32 / 0 0 10 10 20 20
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
