000
FXUS64 KSJT 201133
AFDSJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
533 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTH WINDS. PRE FRONTAL AHEAD OF FRONT
MEANS STRONGEST WINDS MAY LAG FRONT BY AN HOUR OR TWO. POST
FRONTAL STRATUS MAY BRING CIGS DOWN TO MVFR OCCASIONALLY AT KABI
LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TOWARD SUNSET AND LOSE
GUSTY CHARACTER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/
SHORT TERM...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO
LUBBOCK. MSAS 3 HOUR SURFACE PRESSURE CHANGE SHOWS A 3 TO 4 MB
MAXIMUM IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS.
SATELLITE IR LOOP INDICATES SOME LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT JUST MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
FRONT LOOKS ON TRACK FOR AN ARRIVAL ALONG OUR INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING. BY NOON...THE FRONT WILL BE
NEAR OUR INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. LATEST MSAS SURFACE TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION PLOT INDICATES THE COLD AIR SURGE IS AROUND 6 HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT. SO...TEMPERATURE NUMBERS CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE LOOK
GOOD FOR HIGHS TODAY. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...SURFACE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA. LOWS TONIGHT AT OR A FEW
DEGREES BELOW FREEZING LOOK REASONABLE FOR THE BIG COUNTRY.
ELSEWHERE...NUMBERS AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING LOOK GOOD.
BEYOND TONIGHT...LOOK FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM...
TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT AND RAIN POTENTIAL REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
CURRENTLY THE GFS AND ECMWF DO NOT AGREE ON TIMING. THE ECMWF
PUSHES THE NEXT FRONT SOUTH OF OUR AREA BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING.
THE GFS IS 6 TO 12 HOURS SLOWER AND MUCH CLOSER TO OUR PREVIOUS
TIMING FORECAST. THUS...I DECIDED TO CONTINUE WITH TIMING CLOSE TO THE
GFS FOR CONTINUITY. IN ADDITION...THIS MODEL RUN NOT AS PROMISING
FOR RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...I DECIDED TO
CONTINUE OUR 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE TWO PERIODS AS
WE HAD IN OUR PREVIOUS PACKAGE. ALSO...I DECIDED TO ADD 20 POPS
FOR OUR NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY MAINLY FOR MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO MID WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS NEXT WEDNESDAY A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ABILENE 58 30 52 36 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
SAN ANGELO 58 33 53 37 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
JUNCTION 69 34 55 37 65 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/04
