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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KAPX 270505
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
105 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER ATTM WITH LAST PUSH
OF LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY MOVING S/SE ACROSS THE AREA.
MOISTURE/FORCING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS WAVE DEPARTS AND
SNOWSHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN. A BIT OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
IN NORTH FLOW AREAS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH UPSTREAM AIRMASS
IS QUITE DRY AND WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE ACTIVITY. OVERALL...CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND WILL MAKE ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

SHORT WAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING EAST OUR OF OUR CWA LATE
THIS EVENING. SYNOPTIC SNOW HAS DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS AS WE BEGIN TO EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A LAKE ENHANCED
EVENT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE. THIS PROCESS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS TARGETING NORTHERLY FLOW AREAS OF
FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN. SOME POPS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NE LWR MICHIGAN AS THE SHORT WAVE WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE VERY LIGHT...WELL
UNDER AN INCH. STRONG CAA BEHIND THE WAVE WILL DROP OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE TEENS.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT... 

ON THE LATEST SURFACE WEATHER MAP...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS DRAPED 
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
CENTRAL MANITOBA. MEANWHILE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. 
APX RADAR SHOWED A SHRINKING AREA OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST 
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MAIN NEAR TERM FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVES AROUND 
POPS AND WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.

SO FAR MODELS HAVE BEEN WAY...WAY OVERDONE WITH THE AMOUNT AND 
EXTENT OF MOISTURE WITH INCOMING COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT 
WAVE. THIS COMES AS LITTLE SURPRISE AS OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS HAVE 
BEEN INDICATING THAT MODELS WERE/ARE OUT OF TOUCH. THEREFORE...HAVE 
BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WOULD NOT 
BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF 
ACCUMULATION...THOUGH ANY LEFTOVER ACTIVITY AFTER DARK COULD LEAD TO 
A LITTLE ACCUMULATION. AS FAR AS LAKE EFFECT GOES...EXPECT A BIT OF 
NORTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD VEER INTO THE 
NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. LOW 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY FROM PURE ADVECTION AS WINDS REMAIN A 
BIT BRISK THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE RAISED LOWS JUST A TAD WHICH 
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO FAR NORTH TO THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEENS ALONG THE NORTHERN LOWER LAKESHORES. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...COLD BUT MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH SATURDAY/RAIN/SNOW AND WIND 
SUNDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE 
EASTERN UPPER SUNDAY...ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: HEMISPHERIC PATTERN SHOWS LONG WAVE 
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTH AMERICA...AND A 
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC BASIN WITH SHORT WAVE 
TROUGHS NEAR 160W AND 160E.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST 
ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ACROSS 
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  LOW/MID LEVEL 
COLD ADVECTION INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...A CHILLY -20C 850MB 
TEMPERATURES ON 12Z YPL SOUNDING INDICATIVE OF THE INCOMING AIR 
MASS.  

SHORT WAVE TROUGHING OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO SLIDES SOUTHEAST TONIGHT 
AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE STRONG RIDGING REMAINS 
OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.  SECONDARY WEAK WAVE CROSSES THE UPPER 
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT...AFTER WHICH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE PACIFIC MOVE 
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/BRITISH COLUMBIA...FLATTENING THE WESTERN 
RIDGE AND SETTING UP A MORE PACIFIC-DOMINANT FLOW PATTERN INTO NEXT 
WEEK.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO MICHIGAN FOR SATURDAY... 
FOLLOWED BY PACIFIC SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMNANTS FOR THE BACK END OF 
THE WEEKEND.  AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA 
WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...AND 
LINGER SATURDAY BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS 
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY.  COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO PACIFIC SHORT WAVE 
REMNANTS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. 

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: NUISANCE LAKE CLOUD ISSUES FRIDAY...LOW 
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING...PRECIPITATION TIMING/TYPE ISSUES 
AND WINDS FOR SUNDAY.  

FRIDAY...FORECAST STARTS FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL 
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD MOSTLY BE THROUGH THE AREA BY 
DAYBREAK.  ACCOMPANYING THIS WILL BE A THERMAL TROUGH WITH 850MB 
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TOWARD -20C...SO CONCERNS WITH LAKE INDUCED 
CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ABOUND FOR FRIDAY.  AT THIS POINT...LOOKS 
LIKE AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE 
CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRY CHANCES WITH MORE OF AN OPEN 
WATER FETCH THAN OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH STILL HAS A GOOD 
BIT OF ICE COVER FROM GRAND TRAVERSE BAY NORTHWARD.  SO COMBINATION 
OF LAKE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES EXPECTED TO BRING MORE CLOUDS ACROSS 
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED 
SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES.  OUTSIDE OF THAT EXPECT TO SEE MORE SUN...AND 
WILL BE A CHILLY AFTERNOON IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY 
REACH THE TEENS-MID 20S.  HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO 
MICHIGAN FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD FRIDAY 
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AS WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE MOST AREAS.  STILL 
SOME CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS NEAR LAKE HURON...BUT REMAINING AREAS 
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING 
POTENTIAL.  LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO SHOULD BE 
COMMON.  

SATURDAY...LOOKING PRETTY GOOD WITH SURFACE HIGH SLIDING INTO THE 
OHIO VALLEY AND HEIGHT RISES/SHORT WAVE RIDGING ARRIVING FROM THE 
NORTHWEST.  STILL COLD BY LATE MARCH STANDARDS...WITH FORECAST HIGHS 
IN THE UPPER 20S-MID 30S A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.  STILL 
QUIET SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE 
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS SURFACE HIGH PULLS AWAY AND GRADIENT TIGHTENS 
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE MIDWEST. 
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING...AFTER A 
QUICK DROP TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEVEL OFF AND/OR RISE OVERNIGHT AS 
WINDS PICK UP (LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S EXPECTED).

SUNDAY...SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE 
UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH A 
BAND OF PRECIPITATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITHIN 
AN AXIS OF HALF-INCH PLUS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  THERE ARE SOME 
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP ARRIVAL BETWEEN THE FASTER AMERICAN 
GUIDANCE AND SLOWER NON-AMERICAN GUIDANCE (ECMWF/GGEM).  WILL SPLIT 
THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND HOLD PRECIP CHANCES OFF UNTIL SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON.  PRECIP TYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE...SOME OF WHICH WILL 
BE TIED TO TIMING (AN EARLIER ONSET MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW THAN 
RAIN).  FOR NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD MORE FROZEN PRECIP ACROSS EASTERN 
UPPER...AND RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER AND ADJUST THE 
DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER.  LOOKING AT A PRETTY WINDY DAY AS WELL 
SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OVER 30MPH EXPECTED (PERHAPS OVER 
40 MPH NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN).

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE SIGNIFICANT...RAIN SNOW MIX 
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

AS THE SHORT LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...OUR 
ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS A LITTLE MESSY AND A BIT UNSETTLED...AS 
THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE TROUGHY SIDE OF ZONAL. THIS WILL SET THE 
STAGE FOR PERIODIC CLIPPERS TO PUSH THROUGH EVERY COUPLE DAYS...VERY 
MUCH TYPICAL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN SPRING.

OUR FIRST SYSTEM AND THE MOST WELL DEFINED IS A CLIPPER THAT 
TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
DECENT MOISTURE WITH THE H8 0C ISOTHERM IN THE VICINITY SHOULD
SPELL OUT A RAIN SNOW MIX...AT LEAST FOR THE ONSET. THEN THE
DIURNAL PROCESS SHOULD ENSURE ALL RAIN AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A
SECONDARY TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ON TUESDAY...THOUGH WITH LESS
SUPPORT...WILL GO DRY FOR NOW BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP. INSTEAD...WILL FOCUS MORE ON YET ANOTHER CLIPPER
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THAT WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN
TO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES: COOLISH READINGS ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATING 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NEAR NORMAL IN MOST 
CASES...AND EVEN A LITTLE ABOVE ON WEDNESDAY AS LOCALES IN THE 
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA BREAK THE 50 DEGREE MARK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS STILL
EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE MUCH DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
NE LWR MICHIGAN (APN)...WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR NW LOWER WITH VFR CONDITIONS. N/NW WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO
20 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR 
     LSZ321.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KEYSOR
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...KAB
AVIATION...KEYSOR