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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KAPX 022303
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
703 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A WARM FRONT BEGINS ITS APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT 
AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL BRING 
A PERIOD OF WINDY AND WARM WEATHER INTO LATE WEEK...WITH SEVERAL 
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE IS A 
LIGHTNING THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. 

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE 
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE THAT WE HAVE DECENT 
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6.5 C/KM) AND SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF 
MIXED LAYER CAPE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH WIND FIELDS 
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE (0-6KM BULK SHEAR 30 TO 35 KNOTS). SKIES SHOULD 
CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AS 
SOUTHWEST WINDS DO NOT APPEAR TO DECOUPLE. LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES NORTHERN MICHIGAN WITH ONE MORE 
PRECIPITATION-FREE DAY BEFORE OUR NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGINS 
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM AN ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND 
FLOW.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WARM FRONT FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN ITS MARCH 
THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN...PRODUCING RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS...MAIN 
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN ANY STORMS THURSDAY MORNING. 
IF...AND IT/S A BIG IF FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN...SUBSIDENCE BEHIND 
MORNING CONVECTION DEPARTS FAR ENOUGH EAST AND REMNANT CLOUD COVER 
DIMINISHES...SOME STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY 
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE COLD FRONT FROM SAID LOW PRESSURE 
SYSTEM APPROACHES. MOST FAVORABLE AREA WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND THE 
MOST DIURNAL HEATING WOULD BE NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND INTO THE 
EASTERN UPPER PENINSULA. THIS AREA ALSO CORRELATES WELL WITH 0-6KM 
BULK SHEAR OF NEARLY 50 KTS...0-3KM HELICITY NEAR 400 
M^2/S^2...AMPLE MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 
70 DEGREES AND PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES...SOUTHWESTERLY LOW 
LEVEL JET BETWEEN 35 AND 40 KTS...AND MLCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2500 
J/KG...DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WOULD BE FAVORABLE IF AFOREMENTIONED 
CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES BY THURSDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MAIN 
THREATS IN ANY STORM WOULD BE WIND AND HAIL...WITH CAPE IN THE HAIL 
GROWTH ZONE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF 
TORNADOES IN ANY SUPERCELL THAT DOES DEVELOP. OTHER SCENARIO: IF 
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES LATE INTO THE DAY THURSDAY THEN WE WILL JUST 
SEE RAIN CHANCES WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER POSSIBLE... LIMITING ANY 
REAL ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP TO PRODUCE ANY SEVERE WEATHER. 
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER FRIDAY. AS THE 
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH NORTHERN MICHIGAN FROM NORTHWEST TO 
SOUTHEAST BEGINNING IN THE MORNING HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY 
REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 60S IN THE UPPER PENINSULA...LOWER 70S OVER 
NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN...AND NEAR 80 OVER OUR SOUTHEAST 
COUNTIES...AS THIS WILL BE THE LAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS 
FOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO DECREASE 
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE SAID COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO 
DEPART EAST.

REST OF PERIOD...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...PRODUCING COOLER AND 
PRECIPITATION-FREE DAYS. MODELS AGREE OF A DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING 
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE IN THIS PERIOD...BUT SPECIFICS WILL 
HAVE TO WAIT AS TIMING AND LOCATION BECOMES MORE CONFIDENT...THIS 
WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT 
THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU 00Z THURSDAY THANKS TO SURFACE RIDGING AND
DRY AIR THRU THE COLUMN. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 326 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BRUSHES THROUGH THE LAKES. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
WEDNESDAY...REMAINING UNDER 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT 
ARRIVES...POTENTIALLY BECOMING QUITE GUSTY TOWARD THURSDAY NIGHT 
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHTER 
WINDS...AND MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE 
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...AS