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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KAPX 210503
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
103 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

SPOTTY SPRINKLES WILL DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
FURTHER OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SET UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES...PROVIDING DRY CONDITIONS
AND A SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

A COLD FRONT ANCHORED TO AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SWING SE THIS EVENING. THIS 
WILL ALLOW COOLER AND SOMEWHAT BREEZIER WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD NRN 
LOWER AND ERN UPPER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM THUS FAR HAS BEEN MINIMAL...WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS 
OVER ERN UPPER AND FAR NE LOWER. HOWEVER...WITH CONTINUED CAA 
TONIGHT /H8 TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR -2C OVERNIGHT/...CYCLONIC FLOW... 
AND PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE PROSPECTS FOR INCREASING 
DRIZZLE STILL LOOKS GOOD - PER INHERITED FORECAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS 
SUPPORT THIS IDEA...WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE /LOW T-TD DEPRESSIONS/ UP 
TO ROUGHLY -5C ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD BASES. FORECAST WILL REFLECT 
DRIZZLE ALL AREAS THIS EVENING...MOST WIDESPREAD OVER THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER. SUBTLE DRYING THEN BEGINS TO WORK INTO FAR N/W 
AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY AND EVENTUALLY NNE OVERNIGHT...WILL NEED 
TO WATCH FOR SOME LAKE HURON ENHANCEMENT AS UPPER LOW DEEPENS JUST E 
OF REGION. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE 
DEPTH LATE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS OF NE LOWER...HAVE TENTATIVELY 
LIMITED PRECIP TO DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT...WITH A LITTLE FLARE-UP NOT 
REFLECTED IN FORECAST OVER NE LOWER UNTIL DAYBREAK.

UNDER CONTINUED CLOUDY SKIES...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 
INTO THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TUESDAY FROM 
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO 
THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING 
EASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. NORTHEASTERN LOWER 
WILL START TUESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS AS A 
POOL OF MOISTURE FROM AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS 
OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE HURON 
CONTRIBUTING ALSO. 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 0C...WHICH WILL ONLY 
PUT DELTA T/S AROUND 10 TO 11...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE RAIN 
SHOWERS UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER EAST DURING THE LATE 
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS. MICHIGAN WILL BE UNDER A SHARP 
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE NOR'EASTER OVER NEW 
ENGLAND AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY 
AND THURSDAY. VERY DRY AIR IN ALL LEVELS WILL PROVIDE FOR A MOSTLY 
CLEAR AND PRECIPITATION-FREE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME 
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S AND COLD NIGHTS DOWN TO THE MID TO 
UPPER 20S. THE WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE FOR NORTHERN MICHIGAN.

FRIDAY...SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A QUICK 
COUPLE HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK 
SURFACE REFLECTION...ALONG WITH A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE PROGRESSES 
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY FRIDAY. CLEARING SHOULD BE 
FAIRLY QUICK AS DRY AIR ONCE AGAIN RETAKES THE REIGNS OVER NORTHERN 
MICHIGAN AHEAD OF ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT BEGINS TO BUILD 
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATE FRIDAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL 
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ABOVE 
NORMAL...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 50S. THE LIGHT WIND REGIME 
CONTINUES WITH WESTERLY WINDS.

REST OF PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OUR FORECAST 
AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND CHANCES OF RAIN 
SHOWERS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THANKS TO 
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL MAKE 
IT/S WAY TO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. TIMING THIS FAR OUT WILL 
INEVITABLY CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT...BUT MODELS TEND TO 
BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY 
BEING THE ONSET OF THIS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. WINDS FINALLY BEGIN 
TO RAMP UP MONDAY...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 MPH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE 
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. 
THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH 12 TO 14C FORECAST 850MB TEMPS 
COULD BRING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

...MVFR CIGS TRENDING TO CLEARING IN NW LOWER...

PRETTY SOLID MVFR CIGS OUT THERE...BUT THERE IS SOME RAPID CLEARING 
DUE TO DRY AIR...COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. COULD SEE PLN CLEARING 
AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH CIGS BECOMING SCATTERED AT TVC/MBL LATER THIS 
MORNING. A GUSTY NE FLOW OFF LAKE HURON AND OVERLAKE INSTABILITY 
WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MVFR THROUGH THE 
DAY...WITH MAYBE SOME SCATTERING OUT LATE AND INTO THE EVENING. THE 
MVFR COULD EASILY COME BACK IN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT...IN WEAKENING 
ENE FLOW AND STILL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS...AFTER DIURNAL PROCESSES 
HAVE LONG ENDED.

ALSO PATCHY DRIZZLE LIKELY IN APN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 409 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

CAA AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY PASSING 
THROUGH LAKE HURON WILL ALLOW WINDS AND WAVES TO INCREASE TONIGHT TO 
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES. 
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ345-
     347>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ323-342-
     344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ321.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...BS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...BS