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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KAPX 261021
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
621 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY THIS MORNING...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND 
COAST EXTENDS BACK ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES. 
SEVERAL INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE SEEN ON SFC/UPPER AIR 
ANALYSIS. ONE SUCH TROUGH WAS PUSHING THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN ATTM BUT 
WAS RATHER MOISTURE-STARVED. ONLY SOME PATCHY CLOUDS WERE PUSHING IN 
FROM THE NE...AND ALSO DISSIPATING WITH TIME. ANOTHER MORE DEFINED 
AND STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH DEEPER LOWER 
ATMOSPHERE MOISTURE...WAS ACROSS QUEBEC...AND WAS PRODUCING SOME 
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS ESTABLISHED TO OUR 
WEST...AND A COOLER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WAS CREEPING BACK INTO THE 
REGION. 
 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

PATTERN NOT TO CHANGE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MID LEVEL TROUGH 
WILL SWEEP THROUGH NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING VARIABLE CLOUD 
COVER. NOT ENTIRELY SURE ON A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER SINCE THE 
MOISTURE IS RATHER MINIMAL AND THE FORCING IS WEAK...BUT WILL GO 
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY WEST/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY EAST SCENARIO. THIS OUGHT 
TO BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. IF ANYTHING...WOULD THINK THERE COULD 
BE A BIT MORE SUN ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AS WELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT 
TIGHTENS UP A BIT...LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD SEE SOME LATER 
DAY GUSTINESS TO 16-20MPH. 

BEHIND WHATEVER EXTENT OF CLOUDINESS WE GET WITH THE INITIAL 
TROUGH...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF CLEARER SKIES BEFORE THE 
NEXT ARRIVES. THIS STRONGER TROUGH HAS BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING. 
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN 
AREAS...AND TEETERING ON MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST. THERE IS ALSO AN 
OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SPIT OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS FAR NE LOWER...BUT 
BEST BET IS TO GO WITH JUST CLOUDS FOR RIGHT NOW. 

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH 
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF CLOUDS AS WELL AS CONTINUED COOL 
TEMPERATURES MONDAY. INCREASING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT 
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SHOULD THEN LEAD TO CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES WITH A MILDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS MONDAY RANGING FROM THE 
MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. HIGHS TUESDAY 
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. LOWS IN THE CHILLY 
UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S 
TUESDAY NIGHT. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

LONG TERM MODELS DROP DOWN ANOTHER TROUGH FROM THE NORTH WEDNESDAY 
INTO THURSDAY (THE ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST/COOLEST WITH THIS SYSTEM). 
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY COOLER 
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S (THOUGH THE ECMWF WOULD 
INFER TRIMMING A FEW DEGREES OFF OF GIVEN GUIDANCE). MORE PRONOUNCED 
RIDGING THEN BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND FINALLY BRINGING 
WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S FRIDAY THEN THE 
60S TO PERHAPS LOWER 70S OVER THE WEEKEND. LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S 
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS THEN THE UPPER 30S AND 40S FOR 
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...VFR FOR THE TAF PERIOD...

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE FOR
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. VARYING DEGREES OF VFR CLOUDS
WILL WRAP INTO NRN MICHIGAN...BROUGHT IN BY ONE MID LEVEL TROUGH
TODAY...AND ANOTHER STRONGER TROUGH TONIGHT. THESE CLOUDS WILL
PRIMARILY IMPACT PLN/APN.

LATER DAY/AFTERNOON GUSTS 16-19KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS ESTABLISHED WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN...AND WILL 
REMAIN THERE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE THEN WEAKENS 
AND DRIFTS BACK OVER NRN MICHIGAN LATER TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN 
NORTHERLY WINDS...WITH THE BETTER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING 
UP TO 20 KNOTS. GRADIENT SLACKENS THEREAFTER AND WINDS ARE NO LONGER 
A CONCERN. 

NO ADVISORY PLANNED FOR THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SULLIVAN
LONG TERM...SULLIVAN
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD