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000
FXUS63 KAPX 220309
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE FLITTING BY IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A SMALL PRECIP SHIELD ADVANCING ACROSS UPPER MI
AND SURROUNDING AREAS. THIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY SNOW...BUT HAS BEEN
MIXING WITH RAIN ALONG THE NORTHERN LAKE MI COAST (ISQ). POPS WERE
BOOSTED IN EASTERN UPPER MI TONIGHT TO LIKELY...CHANCE POPS WERE
BROUGHT SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN LOWER...AND MIXED
POPS WERE MENTIONED NEAR LAKE MI.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

HAPPY WINTER SOLSTICE EVERYONE...THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT DAYS WILL
BE GETTING LONGER FROM HERE ON OUT (NOT THAT ANYONE WILL BE ABLE
TO TELL FOR A WHILE). WEATHER WISE...SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT. NOT MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT DOWN THIS WAY BUT THIS FEATURE MAY SCRAP EASTERN
UPPER...MAINLY CHIPPEWA COUNTY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF MACKINAC
COUNTY WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW (ONLY LIKE HALF AN INCH AT BEST).
MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION WHICH
MAY ATTEMPT TO LIFT OUT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION LEAVING AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. MY BET WOULD BE FOR THE LOW CLOUD
DECK TO REMAIN BUT EITHER WAY...CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP MUCH
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY RANGING FROM THE MILD MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

...WET TO START THE HOLIDAY WEEK THEN TURNING COLDER...

WEATHER IMPACTS: WINTER STORM POTENTIAL FOR CHRISTMAS EVE/DAY HAS 
DIMINISHED IN LATEST MODEL TRENDS. STILL CAUTIOUSLY WATCHING THIS 
SYSTEM.

SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: STRONG PACIFIC JET ENERGY CONTINUES TO POUR INTO 
THE PAC NW/BRITISH COLUMBIA REGION THIS MORNING...SQUEEZED BETWEEN 
STRONG RIDGING JUST OFF THE SRN CALIFORNIA/BAJA REGION AND A FAIRLY 
DEEP TROUGH AXIS ALONG 165W. MID LEVEL FLOW DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL CONUS ALREADY STARTING TO BUCKLE TODAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE 
OF INCOMING SHORT WAVE ENERGY IN THE NRN ROCKIES (AND A COUPLE SMALL 
SCALE WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS). ACROSS THE GREAT 
LAKES...SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE 
REGION WITH A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE EAST INTO 
NEW ENGLAND. BUT ABUNDANT STRATUS IS DRAPED FROM THE MIDWEST INTO 
NRN MICHIGAN BRINGING A RATHER DRAB WINTER SOLSTICE TO THE NORTH 
WOODS. 

FORECAST OVERVIEW: PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY STILL SLATED TO DIG OUT 
A DEEP CLOSED SFC AND UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. INITIAL SFC LOW THAT DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS SLOWLY WEAKENS AND 
MIGRATES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND 
STILL LOOKING TO BRING A ROUND OF (MAINLY) RAIN TO THE CWA MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ICING CONCERNS 
INITIALLY MONDAY NIGHT (SEE BELOW). BUT UNFORTUNATELY...THERE REMAIN 
MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS SPECIFICALLY AROUND MIDWEEK FOR A HIGH 
IMPACT WEATHER EVENT. GUIDANCE TRENDS HAD BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE 
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE INITIAL SFC LOW/UPPER WAVE 
WEAKENING AND MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. BUT...TODAYS 
12Z GUIDANCE (GFS AND EURO) ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING SHORT 
WAVE ENERGY DEEP INTO THE SOUTHERN STATES AND GULF COAST THEN 
LIFTING THIS WAVE (AND A QUICKLY DEEPENING SFC LOW) UP THROUGH THE 
OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. OF COURSE...MODEL SOLUTIONS 
VARY WITH THE EURO TAKING A BIT MORE EASTWARD TRACK THROUGH LAKE 
ERIE...GFS RUNS THIS SYSTEM UP THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. YET ONE MORE 
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR THE CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY TIME FRAME. 
 
MONDAY...PROBABLY THE "QUIETEST DAY" OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK. 
MAY STILL BE SOME LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SNOWFALL EXITING THROUGH 
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BUT 
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND 
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...WHICH SHOULD FINALLY PUSH TEMPS TO 
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS. 

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND 
DEEPENS THROUGH THE PLAINS/MIDWEST WITH ATTENDING SFC LOW SLIDING 
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DEEP WARM AIR/MOISTURE TRANSPORT 
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AIDED BY EXIT REGION 
UPPER JET FORCING THAT NOSES UP INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY 
TUESDAY...SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE PUSH OF PRECIPITATION. FORECAST 
SOUNDINGS MONDAY NIGHT SUGGEST RAIN FOR NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND A 
RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN WHERE UP TO AN 
INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. BUT...WITH SFC TEMPS DIPPING BACK DOWN TO 
AT OR BELOW FREEZING MONDAY EVENING...AM INCREASINGLY CONCERNED WE 
END UP WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN AND UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE 
ACCUMULATION. NOT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT SOME TYPE OF ADVISORY 
HEADLINE MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. SFC TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY REBOUND 
TO ABOVE FREEZING BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN/FOG THROUGH THAT PERIOD. ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD 
BLEED BACK INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY TO SEE SOME SORT OF CHANGEOVER 
DURING THE DAY. BUT AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY STILL 
SURROUNDS THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH EXACTLY WHAT THIS PRIMARY 
SYSTEM WILL DO...BUT ONE THING IS BECOMING CLEAR...THERE SEEMS TO BE 
NO GREAT LAKES BOMB THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ALSO BEGINNING TO 
BE MORE CONFIDENT THAT THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW 
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF CHRISTMAS EVE FROM WEST TO EAST. ONCE 
TEMPERATURES DO FALL BELOW ZERO AND THE GROUND COOLS ENOUGH FOR THE 
SNOW TO ACTUALLY STICK INTO CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON THE WRAP AROUND 
MOISTURE IS ALMOST NON EXISTENT AS IT RAPIDLY EXITS EAST WITH THE 
DEPARTING SYSTEM. ALL-IN-ALL THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME 
PICTURESQUE DENDRITIC FLAKES FALLING CHRISTMAS DAY.

THE SECONDARY STORM SYSTEM LATER IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND 
STILL IS VERY UNCERTAIN TO WHERE IT WILL TRACK...OR IF IT WILL EVEN 
COME TO REALIZATION. WITH TOO MANY POSSIBILITIES TO BEGIN TO EVEN 
MENTION...FROM RAIN TO A BIG SNOW MAKER. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF 
UNTIL GREATER CONFIDENCE IS ACHIEVED. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 
THROUGHOUT CHRISTMAS DAY...STARTING IN THE LOW TO MID 30S IN THE 
MORNING AND DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THE EVENING HOURS. 
THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NEAR 
FREEZING...SATURDAY IN THE MID 20S...AND THEN SUNDAY ONLY IN THE 
UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. LOW TEMPERATURES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY 
MORNINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S...WITH SUNDAY MORNING 
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

MAINLY VFR...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING...AND APN BECOMING
MVFR ON MONDAY. LLWS LATE TONIGHT TVC/MBL.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS IN PLACE...BEHIND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
DOWN THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THE LOW LEVELS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
MOIST...AND THERE ARE SOME TATTERS OF MVFR CIGS IN PARTS OF
NORTHERN MI. THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RISK THIS EVENING. ON
MONDAY...AS SE WINDS OFF OF LAKE HURON GET A LITTLE STRONGER...A
STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY INTRUDE ON APN.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE S TO SE...MAINLY 10KT OR LESS. LLWS
LATE TONIGHT MBL/TVC...AS DUE SOUTH WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK
INCREASE TO AROUND 30KT.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR LMZ341-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JAZ
NEAR TERM...SULLIVAN
SHORT TERM...ADAM
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...JAZ