Get Forecast For:
Lawrenceville Weather

Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KAPX 290125
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
925 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

STRONG SFC AND UPPER LVL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY SINCE THE WEEKEND...WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO 
BREAKDOWN AND EXIT EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW 
A STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OVER THE NRN PLAINS TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON 
BAY ON WEDNESDAY. A BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL PUSH 
INTO THE WRN LAKES OVERNIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY EXITING EAST INTO LAKE 
HURON WEDNESDAY EVENING. 850/700MB QVECTORS SHOW THE BEST 
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO INFLUENCE THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN 
09Z WED AND 15Z WED...WITH THE BEST CONCENTRATED FOCUS BTWN 15Z WED 
AND 00Z THURSDAY FOR THE ERN LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MSTR PROGS 
SHOW PLENTY OF MSTR TO AID IN INSTABILITY AND PCPN CHANCES ACROSS 
NRN MI WEDNESDAY...AS SFC AND MID LVL DEW PT VALUES INCREASE 
SIGNIFICANTLY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. 850MB DEW PTS 
INCREASE FROM 11C TO 16C WHILE SFC DEW PTS INCREASE FROM THE UPPER 
50S TONIGHT TO THE MID 60S BY 12Z WED.  

CURRENT RADAR AND SAT DATA SHOWING BASICALLY JUST PARTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE CONVECTION FIRES 
IN IOWA AND ERN MINN. IOWA STORMS ARE BEING TRIGGERED IN A THETA 
RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN PLAINS SFC BOUNDARY AND AIDED AND UPPER 
JET DYNAMICS. 850/300MB THICKNESS WOULD SUGGEST IOWA PCPN WILL 
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. 

OVERALL WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY DRY CONDS ACROSS NRN MI INTO THE 
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE MENTIONING A SMALL CHANCE OF 
CONVECTION OVER THE WRN LAKES AROUND 09Z TO 12Z AS CONVERGENCE IN 
ADVANCE OF NRN PLAINS SYSTEM INCREASES. 

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

IMPACT WEATHER: POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM NEAR DAYBREAK. NO SEVERE.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

AFTERNOON ANALYSIS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS SLIDING EAST WHILE THE 
EARLIER SHORTWAVE/MCV CONTINUES TO MARCH INTO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT 
LAKES. THIS WAVE IS OUTRUNNING THE BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY 
STILL ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS A 
RESULT...THE EARLIER CONVECTION HAS PRETTY MUCH VANISHED. WE ARE 
STILL DEALING WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/CLOUD BLOWOFF...BUT THIS 
HASN'T STOPPED TEMPERATURES FROM SOARING INTO THE HOT LOWER 90S FOR 
MOST OF THE REGION. LAKE BREEZES HAVE STARTED PRESSING INLAND WITH 
FAIRLY SPORADIC CUMULUS GETTING SET TO CONSOLIDATE THEMSELVES INTO 
THE CONVERGING LAKE BREEZES...INTERIOR LOCALES/AWAY FROM THE GREAT 
LAKES. OUT WEST...COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED OUT FROM MINNESOTA TO 
WESTERN IOWA AND NEBRASKA. NOTHING HAS FIRED YET ON THE FRONT NORTH 
OF IOWA...WHERE SUBSIDING AIR RESIDES FROM THE DEPARTING MCV/WAVE. 
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THOUGH...SUBSIDENCE WAS NON-EXISTENT. 
ACTUALLY...LATEST SATELLITE SHOWING SOME WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA 
FEEDING THIS AREA WITH A LITTLE BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE.  
HENCE...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER HAVE BEEN 
ABLE TO REDEVELOP. 

TEMPERATURES WERE TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST FOLKS...BUT 
HAVE NOW COOLED OFF A LITTLE NEAR THE LAKESHORES DUE TO LAKE 
BREEZES. 

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN BY 
DAYBREAK...WITH A WING OF WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SLIDING INTO LAKE 
MICHIGAN. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT WHERE A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AIDED IN 
FIRING OFF A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...THE LLJ TONIGHT WILL 
BE MUCH WEAKER AND VERY DIFFICULT TO SEE WHERE IT WILL SET UP. THE 
KEY IN FIGURING OUT WHERE/IF STORMS DEVELOP MAY LIE IN THAT LATEST 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WEAK VORTICITY/POCKETS OF ENHANCED CLOUDS AND 
RESULTING BETTER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY POKE INTO NRN IL 
THROUGH THE NIGHT...POSSIBLY LIFTING INTO SRN WISCONSIN WITH SOME 
MINOR ADDITIONAL HEIGHT RISES. COULD SEE A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND 
WEAK STORMS THERE...EVENTUALLY DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE GTV 
BAY/MANISTEE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK. WHATEVER DOES FIRE...IT WILL 
UNDERGO THE SAME WEAKENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...DECAYING AS 
THE LLJ MIXES OUT. THIS WHOLE PROCESS IS SLOWER...AND IF I WERE 
FORCED TO BET...BELIEVE CHANCES FOR SEEING RAIN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK 
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA IS MINIMAL. FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION....SEE 
BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NOT MUCH. STILL MONITORING 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: PATTERN SET TO MORPH INTO 
ONE ALL-TO-FAMILIAR TO US NORTHERN MICHIGAN RESIDENTS...WITH CURRENT 
OVERHEAD HEAT DOME SUCCUMBING TO NORTHERN PLAINS WAVE WEDNESDAY... 
ALL-THE-WHILE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING RETROGRADES BACK INTO THE 
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL REESTABLISH COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW 
ALOFT AS TROUGHING ONCE AGAIN BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTHEAST 
NOAM.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGHOUT 
AND ADDRESSING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
 
DETAILS: LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES ON HOW TOMORROW'S SHOWER 
AND STORM EVOLUTION WILL WORK OUT. CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR 
SURE...WITH NICE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE JUST AHEAD OF 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AT LEAST PARTIALLY OFFSET BY 
DELAYED/SHEARING OF MID LEVEL DYNAMICS AND NEARLY NON-EXISTENT UPPER 
LEVEL JET SUPPORT. FRONTAL TIMING IS SLOWER...WHICH DOES AT LEAST 
OFFER SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR SOLAR DRIVEN DESTABILIZATION...ESPECIALLY 
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. SIMPLY FEEL THE NEGATIVES ARE TOO MANY...AND 
STILL EXPECT NOTHING MORE THAN A BROKEN/SCATTERED BAND OF SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO WORK WEST/EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. 
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SOME DECENT RAINS FOR THOSE THAT ARE LUCKY 
ENOUGH TO EXPERIENCE THE STORMS...BUT REALLY FEEL THIS WILL BE FEW 
AND FAR BETWEEN. MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON 
ACROSS THE SUNRISE SIDE...PENDING DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND ITS 
IMPACTS ON DESTABILIZATION. LACK OF MID/UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT COULD 
SIMPLY PREVENT SUCH...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL NEED TO BE 
MONITORED FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH 25-30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR 
TO WORK WITH. LATEST DAY 2 SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK STILL HAS MARGINAL 
RISK FAR REMOVED TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH CONTINUES TO FIT THE OVERALL 
FLAVOR OF THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD BE HISTORY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS DRY 
AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION. TROUGHING AND NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS 
THEREAFTER THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH EMBEDDED WEAK WAVES ROTATING 
THROUGH SUCH. MOISTURE WILL BE SEVERELY LIMITED WITH EACH WAVE...AS 
WILL ANY TYPE OF LOW LEVEL SURFACE CONVERGENCE (ALTHOUGH WILL NEED 
TO MONITOR INTERIOR EASTERN UPPER WITH BACKGROUND WEST WINDS PERHAPS 
ALLOWING A NARROW RIBBON OF ENHANCED CONVERGENCE). IDEA FOR NOW IS 
TO SIMPLY RIDE WITH A DRY FORECAST...WITH ANY RAINFALL BEING LIMITED 
AND MINOR AT BEST. BIGGER STORY NO DOUBT WILL BE TEMPERATURES...WITH 
HIGHS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL BRING THE OCCASIONAL 
COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION 
PRODUCING ON AND OFF CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDER TO THE FORECAST 
AREA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SUNDAY APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE 
FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL REMAIN 
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF SUNDAY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPERATURES 
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S...WHILE LOWS WILL BE IN THE 
MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NRN LAKES TAF SITES THIS
EVENING...THE RESULT OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ON
THE MID ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AS A STORM SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ORGANIZING OVER THE NRN PLAINS PUSHES INTO THE WRN
LAKES. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AROUND 18Z FOR TAF SITES
PLN- TVC- MBL...ENDING FOR TAF SITE APN AFT 21Z WED.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO 
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE LAKES WILL LIKELY 
KEEP ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FROM DEVELOPING. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE 
ALONG THE NW LOWER COASTLINE DUE TO COASTAL CONVERGENCE. THIS COLD 
FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TOWARD DAYBREAK AND 
INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED. BETTER LOW LEVEL 
COOLING DEVELOPS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...TO KNOCK DOWN THE STABILITY 
SOME...BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ADVISORIES. 

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SWR
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...TJL
AVIATION...SWR
MARINE...SMD