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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KAPX 241749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
149 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AS SOMEWHAT 
MORE HUMID AIR RIDES NORTH INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THOSE WILL 
BRIEFLY DEPART TONIGHT...ONLY TO RETURN LATE AND INTO SATURDAY AS A 
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH THE REGION. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS 
FEATURE...BUT WINDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. 
SUNDAY LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL BUT NICE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN 
CONTROL...BEFORE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE REGION PROVIDES 
SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE WARM ADVECTION IS GOING TO GET A CLOSE TO REACHING THE HIGHS
DEPSITE THE CLOUD COVER. THERE ARE SOME THIN SPOTS IN THE
OVERCAST, WHICH MAY YIELD SOME BREAKS, BUT THINK THAT THE BULK OF
THE CLEARING WON'T HAPPEN UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. THEN AFTER
THAT THE CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN FOR SATURDAY MORNING. 

UPDATE ISSUED AT 958 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS THE
CLOUD COVER LOOKS PRETTY STUBBORN. ALTHOUGH, THERE ARE SOME THIN
SPOTS TO THE WEST IN WISCONSIN. WILL LEAVE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR NOW, BUT WILL SEE HOW MUCH THE CLOUDS MIX OUT TODAY. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG THIS MORNING THEN CLOUDY...

IMPACTS: MINIMAL/NONE. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY HIGHER 
TERRAIN.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA 
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ILL-DEFINED SFC TROUGH (SEEN BETTER 
ON AREA VAD WINDS AT 850MB) WAS OVER THE REGION. THERE WAS A 
WEAKENING MID LEVEL JET PUNCHING IN OVER THE AREA WITH TWO DISTINCT 
VORTICITY MAXIMA/SHORTWAVES IN THIS TROUGH. ONE WAS MARCHING SLOWLY 
ACROSS ONTARIO...AND THE OTHER DIVING INTO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN. 
GENERALLY WEAK -DIVQ/FORCING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CORRIDOR OF 
MOISTURE BEING SHEARED OUT...WHILE ALSO RUNNING INTO THE ANTECEDENT 
VERY DRY AIR MASS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE LIGHT RADAR RETURNS 
PRODUCING LITTLE NO RAINFALL ON THE GROUND. AREA SFC OBS SHOW THIS 
WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHERE THE RADAR RETURNS RESIDE. 
BACK BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS FAIRLY DEEP SEEN 
BY MUCH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS. THIS MOISTURE WAS THINNING FURTHER 
WEST INTO WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN MN. AS THE BETTER MOISTURE 
ALOFT HAS BEEN EXITING EAST...COOLING OF THE BL WITH WEAK BL WINDS 
(10KTS OR SO) HAS BEEN RESULTING IN THE EXPANSION OF THIS STRATUS. 
FINALLY THERE HAS BEEN SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE REPORTED WITH THIS LOW 
CLOUD. 

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

THE SFC AND UPPER TROUGHS WILL CROSS NRN MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MID 
MORNING HOURS...SPREADING A VEIL OF LOW CLOUDS AND SPOTTY DRIZZLE 
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DRIZZLE WILL BE MORE PREVALENT ON THE HIGHER 
TERRAIN. QUESTIONS ABOUND AS TO THE SKY COVERAGE AND RESULTANT 
TEMPERATURE TREND FOR THE DAY. FCST BFR SOUNDINGS (AND THE EXPANSION 
OF LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN GENERALLY WEAK BL FLOW AND MINIMAL MIXING) 
SUPPORT THE IDEA OF CONTINUED CLOUDY/STRATUS STUCK UNDERNEATH AN 
INVERSION AROUND 900MB. THE THINNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (BETTER LOW 
LEVEL DRYING) DOES MAKE IT INTO NW LOWER/WESTERN EASTERN UPPER BY 
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...FOR SOME POTENTIAL CLEARING...BUT NE LOWER 
AND WEAK UP SLOPE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD KEEP SKIES CLOUDY 
THROUGH MOST ALL OF THE DAY. THIS WOULD TEND TO LEAD TO COOLER 
TEMPERATURES THAN FORECAST...BUT UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES RIGHT NOW/AT 
NIGHT ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER HALF OF THE 40S. REGARDLESS...WITH 
THE EXPECTATION OF VERY SMALL DIURNAL INFLUENCES ON TEMPS...DID HAVE 
TO LOWER HIGHS INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S. MAYBE SOME REMAIN IN 
THE UPPER 40S OF NE LOWER AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARMEST TEMPS 
EXPECTED WILL BE WHERE SOME CLEARING IS MORE POSSIBLE...ACROSS THE 
WESTERN CWA. 

CAN SEE SOME CLEARING CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING...WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN UPPER...WHERE WE WILL ALREADY BE SEEING THE 
INFLUX OF HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM FRONT. THIS 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT INCOMING SHORTWAVE...WHICH WILL HAVE 
STRONGER FORCING/DYNAMICS (120KT JET) AND EVEN SOME BETTER WAA. 
FOLLOWING THE WARM FRONT...WILL BE A COLD FRONT MAKING IT INTO NRN 
MICHIGAN BY LATE TONIGHT/DAYBREAK SATURDAY. DESPITE ALL OF THE 
STRONGER WINDS/FORCING...THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH 
UTILIZING ANY RESPECTABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. COULD SEE A SMALL 
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAINS CROSSING THE SAULT (PER ONGOING FORECAST. THIS 
IS WHERE ALL OF THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. LOWS 
TONIGHT IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH INCREASED BL FLOW AND BL 
MIXING. 

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SEASONABLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SET TO RETURN...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 
POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT - MAYBE SOME GALES ON THE 
LAKES AS WELL. A FAIRLY STRONG STORM SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA TOWARD 
MIDWEEK...WITH MAYBE A THUNDER THREAT TUESDAY...AND STRONG WINDS 
POSSIBLE INTO LATE WEEK. REALLY DON'T WANT TO DISCUSS COLD AIR/SNOW 
POSSIBILITIES JUST YET...BUT THERE ARE STRONG SIGNS OF SOME VERY 
CHILLY CONDITIONS ARRIVING TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

PATTERN SUMMARY/EVOLUTION: A LITTLE SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE IN THE 
WEATHER DEPARTMENT THE NEXT 7 DAYS...WHICH OF COURSE IS TYPICAL AS 
WE WRAP UP OCTOBER IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN. ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH (THAT HAS TRENDED MORE CLOSED/STRONGER IN RECENT DAYS) WILL 
BE PASSING THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO ON SATURDAY...DRIVING A COLD 
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. THAT FEATURE LOOKS TO 
BE FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE 
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK...BUT WITH QUITE THE 
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT SETUP 
SHOULD LIFT A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY...AS 
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE OVER THE WESTERN LAKES INTO 
TUESDAY...OF COURSE ULTIMATELY DELIVERING A COLD FRONT TO OUR 
DOORSTEP NO LATER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF BREAKDOWN OF RECENT 
GULF OF ALASKA TROUGHING LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR A COUPLE ADDITIONAL 
REINFORCING UPPER WAVES TO EVENTUALLY CARVE OUT A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER 
TROUGH OVER THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE 
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME VERY CHILLY AIR TO COME SPILLING SOUTH IN OUR 
DIRECTION. 

LET'S TAKE A GANDER AT THE DETAILS:

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TRENDS THE PAST FEW DAYS 
SUPPORT THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING...
USHERING IN A SHALLOW BURST OF COOLER AIR LATER SATURDAY INTO THE 
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY. WHILE THE AIRMASS CHANGE ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY 
ROBUST DOWN LOW...NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY PRECIP WITH 
ALL UPPER SUPPORT LIFTING THROUGH ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND AMBIENT DEEPER 
LAYER DRY CONDITIONS WELL INTACT OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. QUICK 
COOLING BELOW THE REMNANT "WARMER" 850-700MB LEVEL SHOULD AT LEAST 
LEAD TO A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE 
FRONT...WITH MAYBE A TOUCH OF DRIZZLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
PENDING JUST HOW LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN ACHIEVE. SHARP DRYING THROUGH 
THE AFTERNOON SHOULD DELIVER CLEARING CONDITIONS FOR A TIME...BUT 
WITH PROBABLY A TREND TOWARD MORE IN THE WAY OF LAKE-HELPED STRATOCU 
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS H9 TEMPS COOL QUITE NICELY DOWN INTO 
THE 0C TO +4C RANGE. SHARP DRYNESS ABOVE THAT PROVIDES STRONG 
CONFIDENCE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BE PRECIP-FREE...BUT COULD BE A 
SNEAKY CHILLY DAY FOR MANY SPOTS ON SUNDAY IF CLOUDS PROVE STUBBORN. 

SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: A PERIOD OF CHANGEABLE CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL 
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE WE LIFT AN 
ELEVATED WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE SURFACE 
REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE VERY SLOWLY TRANSITING NORTHWARD THROUGH 
NORTHERN MICHIGAN INTO MONDAY ITSELF. A NICE PUSH OF DEEPER LAYER 
WARM ADVECTION ASCENT AND MODEST MOISTURE BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS 
(PWAT VALUES UP OVER AN INCH) SHOULD RESULT IN AN AXIS OF RAIN 
LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA INTO MONDAY MORNING...PERHAPS TRANSITIONING 
TO A PERIOD OF LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE FOR MUCH OF MONDAY AS THE 
MAJORITY OF THE CWA LIKELY LIES NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AND 
WE STRIP OUT A BAND OF MOISTURE IN THE 900-750MB LAYER. A TRICKY 
TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL...WITH THE 
POSSIBILITY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF 
M-72) TO HOLD IN THE 40S OR LOW 50S THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...UNTIL 
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT BOWS NORTHWARD INTO THE EVENING...LIKELY 
SENDING READINGS SOARING FOR AT LEAST NORTHERN LOWER AS WE BREAK 
INTO THE WARM SECTOR.

APPROACH OF AN AXIS OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS TUESDAY SHOULD HELP 
STRENGTHEN A SURFACE WAVE ALONG AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT...WITH SOME 
PROJECTIONS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REALLY GARNER STRENGTH AS IT LIFTS 
TOWARD JAMES BAY...PROPELLING A STRONG COLD FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION 
NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING. THAT SETUP ALONE...WITH HINTS OF A 
VERY STRONG MID LEVEL JET CORE PUNCHING STRAIGHT THROUGH NORTHERN 
MICHIGAN RAISES AN EYEBROW ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBILITIES...
THOUGH AS USUAL THE BIG QUESTION MARK WILL BE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. 
NEVERTHELESS...FROM A SIMPLE PATTERN RECOGNITION STANDPOINT A 
THUNDER MENTION SEEMS WARRANTED ON TUESDAY (COULD BE SOME SUNDAY 
NIGHT AS WELL...BUT A LOWER CHANCE). HIGHS ON TUESDAY COULD 
POTENTIALLY SPIKE INTO THE 70S FOR EASTERN AREAS PROVIDED RAIN CAN 
HOLD OFF LONG ENOUGH...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST...MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE 
SOME 60S...IF NOT FOR JUST A BRIEF TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: BACK TO LATE OCTOBER REALITY! GUIDANCE 
TRENDS AND AGREEMENT ARE QUITE STEADFAST THAT A STRONG PUSH OF 
COLDER AIR WILL WRAP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK AS 
UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES. JUST HOW COLD THAT AIR IS REMAINS TO BE 
SEEN...BUT IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH FROM AN ENSEMBLE STANDPOINT (H8 
TEMPS AVERAGING -2C) TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. 
MUCH OF THAT SHOULD BE OF THE LIQUID VARIETY THROUGH THURSDAY BASED 
ON THERMAL PROGS...BUT WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR AN EVEN COLDER 
SURGE OF AIR ARRIVING JUST AFTER THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD 
SUPPORTING SOMETHING MORE OF A FROZEN VARIETY. WE'LL LEAVE IT AT 
THAT...AS THE DETAILS THAT FAR OUR ARE VERY FUZZY...BUT SOMETHING TO 
WATCH AS WE HEAD TOWARD HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOOKS LIKE THE MOISTURE THAT HAS BEEN PRODUCING IFR CIGS WEST OF
I-75 IS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST OF I-75. THERE ARE SOME THIN SPOTS
IN EASTERN WISCONSIN. THE TREND AND THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST THAT
THE IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN OVER THE TAF SITES UNTIL THIS EVENING.
THEN THE THIN SPOTS IN WISCONSIN WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION.
HOWEVER, THE THIN SPOTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST, AND
MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN TO PRODUCE MORE IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH, THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON. 

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONCERNS RISING...

A DECAYING SFC TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH 
WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/PATCHY DRIZZLE. A 
COLD FRONT SLIPS DOWN THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY...WHICH WILL BRING A LIKELY PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY 
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS. THESE ADVISORY WINDS MAY BE 
PRESENT IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ACROSS 
COASTAL CONVERGENCE REGIONS ALONG NW LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT. 
THE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT 
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITHIN COLD ADVECTION/SLIGHTLY 
DEEPER OVERLAKE INSTABILITY AND A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. 

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JL
SYNOPSIS...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
AVIATION...JL
MARINE...SMD