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000
FXUS63 KAPX 290352
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1152 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST 
AND THEN NORTH...REACHING NORTHERN QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY. WE WILL 
REMAIN IN THE BACKWASH OF THIS SYSTEM ALL WEEK...KEEPING OUR WEATHER 
ON THE COOL SIDE...AND PROVIDING US WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR 
SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...OUT-AND-IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH A SHOWER OR TWO OVERNIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER 
GREAT LAKES IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND 
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST.  NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO 
THE REGION WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
DIGGING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHWEST ONTARIO AND TOWARD ISLE ROYALE 
WITH A SMALL PATCH OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS WITH IT AND SOME SPOTTY RAIN 
SHOWERS.  THERE IS ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THIS FEATURE AS 
WELL ADVECTING SOUTHWARD.  CLOSER TO HOME...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER 
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER WITH PERSISTENT 
STRATOCUMULUS...SOME OF IT LAKE-AIDED THIS MORNING WITH A FEW 
STREAMERS OF DRIZZLE...AND DIURNALLY-AIDED DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
CLOUDS OVER EASTERN UPPER CONFINED TO EAST OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR 
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF AFTERNOON SUN ACROSS WESTERN CHIPPEWA/MOST OF 
MACKINAC COUNTIES.  

DEEP LAYER NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...SHORT 
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR EXTRAPOLATES INTO 
NORTHWEST LOWER IN THE 02Z-03Z TIME FRAME...WITH ANOTHER MID LEVEL 
WAVE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING 
MOISTURE.      

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE MAIN 
ISSUES GIVEN WEAK FEATURES WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DROPPING 
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...SORT OF A NEBULOUS FORECAST FOR TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK 
FEATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE (PLUS A LITTLE MID LEVEL 
INSTABILITY) COMBINING TO BRING A MOSTLY NUISANCE SHOWER THREAT TO 
NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT.  CLOUD COVER WILL BE IN FLUX HEADING INTO 
THIS EVENING...AS STRATOCUMULUS OVER NORTHERN LOWER GETS PUSHED 
SOUTHEAST BY BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS...AND CLOUD DECK HEADING TOWARD 
LAKE SUPERIOR DRIFTS SOUTH.  VORTICITY CENTER HEADING TOWARD ISLE 
ROYALE WILL LIKELY TRACK TOWARD NORTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN THIS 
EVENING...NOT GOING TO RULE OUT THAT IT STILL WON'T HAVE A FEW RAIN 
DROPS WITH IT AROUND THE GRAND TRAVERSE BAY REGION TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  
OTHERWISE...WEAK TROUGH AT 850/700MB ROTATES IN OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH 
SOME MID LEVEL COOLING/STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES BELOW 700MB.  SO 
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH THESE FEATURES DURING THE 
NIGHT.  DON'T THINK IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT LAKE 
CONTRIBUTION TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXCEPT PERHAPS THROUGH THE 
STRAITS VICINITY.  OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S.  

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

...A STUCK UPPER LEVEL LOW...

OVERVIEW...THE 500 MB LOW THAT HAS BEEN JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY WILL 
CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE AREA, UNTIL CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND. THAT'S 
WHEN THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND LIFT OUT OF CANADA FOR A MORE 
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN AGAIN. THE 500 MB PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS 
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED, WITH A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS. JUST TO THE 
WEST OF THE RIDGE OUT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA IS ANOTHER 500 MB LOW. 
AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE BLOCK WILL LAST A FEW DAYS. SO WITH 
THE IN MIND THE FORECAST LOOKS LIKE THIS...

(7/29)TUESDAY...MOISTURE IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND AT 850 MB WILL 
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE 500 MB LOW AS IS SINKS A BIT SOUTH AND 
WEST TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. NOT TO MENTION WITH THE MOISTURE, 
THAT THERE ARE SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW AS 
WELL. THIS SHOULD KICK OFF SHOWERS AT THE VERY LEAST. ALTHOUGH THE 
GFS BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE IS A FEW HUNDRED J/KG, SO WILL EXPECT THAT 
THUNDER WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS 
AND THE AFTERNOON. 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE BELOW 30 KNOTS, SO WON'T BE 
EXPECTING ANY GOOD ORGANIZATION WITH THESE. 

TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE LAPSE RATES STABILIZE (LIS>0C) 
AFTER 00Z, SO THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS 
IN THE SE COUNTIES IN THE EARLY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAVE THE 
OVERNIGHT DRY AHEAD OF THE NEXT PIECE OF ENERGY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO 
THE REGION. 

(7/30)WEDNESDAY...INHERITED 30 POPS IN E UPPER AND THE SE COUNTIES 
OF N LOWER, BUT WAS A LITTLE CONCERNED WITH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF 
SHOWING THE 500 MB JET MAX NOSING INTO N LOWER BY 00Z. HOWEVER, WITH 
THE 700-500 MB LAYER RH AROUND 20-30% NOSING INTO N LOWER AS WELL, 
WILL LEAVE THE POPS AS IS FOR NOW AS THE WE LOOK AT ANOTHER RUN. 

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL LEAVE THE EVENING DRY AS THE MOISTURE SLOWLY 
INCREASES, BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO MOISTEN "ENOUGH" FOR SHOWERS 
UNTIL AFTER 06Z. THE 500 MB JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE 
REGION SO WILL HAVE THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. 

(7/31)THURSDAY...THE 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, DURING 
THE MORNING SO WILL HAVE THE SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AS THE 
FEATURE MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. 
OVERNIGHT, DRY AIR (700-500 MB LAYER RH DROPS TO LESS THAN 40%), 
MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS, AND ON THE GFS AT 
850 MB AS WELL. SO WILL BEGIN TO DRY THINGS OUT. 

EXTENDED (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...(8/1)FRIDAY...ANOTHER 500 MB 
TROUGH AND A SFC LOW MOVE THROUGH THE REGION, AND KICKS OFF ANOTHER 
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. THEN DRY AIR PUSHES BACK INTO 
THE REGION AND DIMINISHES THE RAIN AGAIN. (8/2)SATURDAY...WITH THE 
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S, MOISTURE INCREASING, 
A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE REGION, AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE A WARM FRONT 
NEARBY, WILL GO WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON. 
WITH THE DIURNAL HEATING GONE, WILL EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AS WELL. (8/3)SUNDAY...MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING 
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS FOR MAINLY 
SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT MIGHT HAVE TO GO WITH THUNDERSTORMS AS THE 
SCENARIO BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. (8/4)MONDAY...MODELS ARE 
HAVING A DISCREPANCY, WITH THE GFS CONTINUING WITH THE RAIN, AND THE 
ECMWF MAINLY DRY. SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS. 

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. ADDED CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...OF COURSE CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
TO MVFR UNDER OR NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT,
EXPECT THE WINDS TO DIMINISH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THEN WITH THE
LACK OF GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KB
SHORT TERM...JPB
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...JSL