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Area Forecast Discussion

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FXUS63 KAPX 221409
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1009 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

NOT MANY UPDATES AT ALL TODAY...TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK AND
THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO CHANCE OF RAIN...REFER TO 12Z APX SOUNDING
AND THE 0.17" PWAT. THIS DRY AIR AND DECENT MIXING AHEAD OF
APPROACHING SFC HIGH PRESSURE...WILL RESULT IN EVEN LOWER SFC DEW
POINTS....WHICH MAY TAP THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR INLAND SPOTS. THIS
WILL WIND UP CRASHING AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES INTO THE 10-20 PERCENT
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN (EXCEPT AWAY FROM DOWNWIND
LOCALES OF THE LAKES). WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NW
WITH NO REAL GUSTINESS. TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL IN THE 50S...WITH
ONLY DOWNSLOPING AREAS OF NE LOWER IN THE LOWER 60S. 

&&

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...SUNNY BUT COOLER TODAY/MORE FROSTY CONDITIONS TONIGHT...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MARGINALLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS 
AFTERNOON (PRIMARILY LOW MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY).  MORE FROST/ 
FREEZE ISSUES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. 

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: MIDNIGHT SURFACE/COMPOSITE ANALYSIS SHOWS 
A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN 
WISCONSIN...WEAK SECONDARY TROUGH ALONG THE NORTH CHANNEL NORTHWEST 
INTO LAKE SUPERIOR.  COOLER/DRIER AIR SPILLING INTO NORTHERN 
MICHIGAN BEHIND THIS FRONT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM 
NORTHWEST ONTARIO HELPING CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA WITH A BAND OF 
MID CLOUDS AND SOME RADAR RETURNS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT 
ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN.  

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TODAY 
INTO TONIGHT...WITH MICHIGAN JUST ON THE WEST EDGE OF A DEEP LAYER 
THERMAL TROUGH CENTERED OVER QUEBEC.  WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO 
KICK IN LATE TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER 
FLOW BY SATURDAY MORNING.
 
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...LOW 
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING AND MORE FROST POTENTIAL. 

TODAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS DEALING WITH MARGINALLY ELEVATED 
FIRE DANGER...AS WINDS MAY BE ON THE GUSTY SIDE FOR THE FIRST PART 
OF THE DAY THOUGH THE GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS 
AFTERNOON WHILE DEW POINTS AT THAT TIME DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS 
INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE 5-10 DEGREES 
COOLER THAN THURSDAY AFTERNOON (MOSTLY 50S BUT SOME UPPER 40S NEAR 
LAKE SUPERIOR)...BUT THANKS TO THE EXPECTED TANKING OF DEW POINTS 
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 20 PERCENT POSSIBLE OVER 
NORTHEAST LOWER.   

TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL 
ALLOW WARM ADVECTION TO KICK IN OVERNIGHT.  LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE 
AND AN AXIS OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES ADVECT ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO/ 
LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...SO MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS NORTH 
OF THE UPPER PENINSULA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE EXCEPT 
FOR SOME LATE CLOUDS INTO EASTERN UPPER...CLEAR SKIES AND (MOSTLY) 
CALM WINDS EXPECTED (THOUGH THE SURFACE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PICK UP 
TOWARD DAYBREAK).  THIS BRINGS LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING 
INTO FOCUS...AND WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING IN THE 50S WON'T HAVE 
FAR TO GO FOR FROST/FREEZE ISSUES WITH LOWS LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE 
20S ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHERN LOWER.  SO ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF 
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS PERSIST INTO 
SATURDAY...WITH AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER LATER INTO SUNDAY 
NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS QUITE UNLIKELY.

REALLY A PRETTY CLASSIC WEATHER PATTERN FOR LATE MAY AS WE HEAD INTO 
THE WEEKEND...AS STRONGER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AND ITS RESULTANT 
BRIEF BLASTS OF COLDER AIR DEPARTS AND GIVES WAY TO BROADENING 
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW LATER SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF RATHER ROBUST UPPER 
TROUGHING EMERGING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IN SUCH A 
PATTERN...WE OFTEN FIND OURSELVES WITH SOME QUICK-CHANGING WEATHER 
CONDITIONS...AND THIS TIME WILL BE NO DIFFERENT AS WE TRANSITION 
FROM A CHILLY START TO SATURDAY INTO A WARMER BUT DRY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENTUALLY MILD AND HUMID CONDITIONS TOWARD THE EARLY WORK WEEK. 
THANKFULLY FOR A PARCHED NORTHERN MICHIGAN LANDSCAPE OF LATE...THE 
UPCOMING PATTERN DOES OFFER SOME DECENT RAIN CHANCES...THOUGH OF 
COURSE EXACT TIMING OF THOSE REMAINS A CHALLENGE.

FIRST THINGS FIRST...SATURDAY LOOKING RATHER QUIET FROM A SENSIBLE 
WEATHER PERSPECTIVE AS LOW LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD FIRM 
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A GOOD DEAL MORE CLOUD 
COVER AS MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ALL 
WHILE A TONGUE OF DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WRAPPING TO OUR NORTH 
PROBABLY SETS OFF A SMATTERING OF SHOWERS (THUNDER?) UP INTO 
SOUTHERN ONTARIO...MAYBE JUST MAYBE CLIPPING AREAS NEAR THE SOO WITH 
A SPRINKLE (DOUBT IT THOUGH). INSTEAD...WE SHOULD FIND OURSELVES IN 
A MODERATELY MIXED ENVIRONMENT...WITH ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR ALOFT 
AND ONGOING DRY SOILS PROMOTING ANOTHER DAY OF LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS 
NEARING CRITICAL LEVELS. THROW IN A WARMER THERMAL REGIME WITH A 
HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO SNEAK INTO WARMER-THAN-EXPECTED 
TERRITORY (THANKS DRY SOIL) WITH MIXING AND SOME WIND GUSTS 
APPROACHING 20-25 KNOTS...AND THERE COULD ACTUALLY BE A PERIOD OF 
NEAR-RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST LOWER WHERE 
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID THE TEMP RESPONSE. BASED ON RECENT HISTORY 
OF DRYNESS AND SOME FIRES...WILL ADD A MENTION OF ELEVATED FIRE 
DANGER SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO THE USUAL PRODUCTS. 

STARTING TO SEE AN UPWARD TICK IN PRECIP POTENTIAL AMONG GUIDANCE 
HEADING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS MORE ROBUST RETURN FLOW ALOFT GETS 
UNDERWAY...BUT HAVE TO SAY AT THE MOMENT I REMAIN UNIMPRESSED GIVEN 
OUR DRY AIR ISSUES AND RECENT HISTORY. WITH THAT SAID...THERE IS 
SORT OF AN INTERESTING COLD SIDE FRONTOLYSIS/WARM SIDE FRONTOGENESIS 
COUPLET THAT IS PEGGED ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME WHICH OF 
COURSE WOULD REALLY PUT THE "SQUEEZE PLAY" ON THE ATMOSPHERE AND 
PERHAPS REALLY TRY ITS BEST TO WRING OUT A LITTLE BIT OF RAINFALL. 
NOT READY TO BITE JUST YET...BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY.

MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RAMP UP INTO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY 
NIGHT AS BOTH A SURFACE AND ELEVATED WARM FRONT ARE DYNAMICALLY 
LIFTED NORTHWARD RATHER RAPIDLY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING 
STRONGER SHORTWAVE. THIS BASIC IDEA HAS BEEN WELL MODELED FOR 
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN DECENT RAIN 
CHANCES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AIDING THAT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE THE GULF 
TAP WITH PWAT VALUES SURGING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND PEGGED STRONG 
LOW LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHWARD RETREATING ELEVATED 
WARM FRONT. THUNDER THREAT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE SIMPLY GIVEN THE 
MAGNITUDE OF THETA-E ADVECTION...THOUGH LAPSE RATES COULD BE
BETTER. 

&&

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

FINALLY LOOKING MORE LIKE LATE MAY SHOULD WITH OVERALL MILDER AND 
MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS STICKING AROUND THROUGH MIDWEEK... 
COURTESY OF BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW HANGING TIGHT INTO AT LEAST 
WEDNESDAY. LOTS OF QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN 
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PROBABLY THE BEST POTENTIAL ON 
MONDAY AS WE SEE A WARM FRONT STILL DRAPED SOMEWHERE NEARBY (LIKELY 
STALLED NEAR THE STRAITS PER CLIMO). GIVEN THE EXPECTED WARMTH AND 
HUMIDITY...CAN'T RULE OUT SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON 
SHOWERS/STORMS...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THAT IS QUITE LOW GIVEN THE 
LACK OF ANY MAJOR TRIGGER. PERHAPS THE NEXT BEST SHOT WILL COME 
LATER TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT... 
BUT AT THE MOMENT...OVERALL SUPPORT NOT LOOKING TOO GREAT. STILL... 
WORTH AT LEAST A SMALL CHANCE MENTION...WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY ABOVE 
NORMAL FOR A STRETCH AS DAILY HIGHS PUSH INTO THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT 
LOWS HANG IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CLEAR SKIES/VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR MAY BECOME AN ISSUE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 359 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

TODAY/TONIGHT: WEAKENING GRADIENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES EXPECTED TO 
RESULT IN LAKE BREEZE COMPONENTS DOMINATING NEARSHORE WINDS TODAY.  
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST...HEADLINE 
CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. 
 
OUTLOOK:  GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY ON LAKE MICHIGAN 
AND INTO THE ST. MARY'S RIVER...POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SMD
NEAR TERM...JPB
SHORT TERM...LAWRENCE
LONG TERM...LAWRENCE
MARINE...JPB