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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KAPX 030744
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: SHOWERS AND STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN.
 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND OBSERVATIONS:

EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS...RIDGING ALOFT AND WARM TEMPERATURES COVERED 
MOST OF THE COUNTRY...WITH TROUGHING PUNCHING IN ACROSS THE PACIFIC 
NW. WITHIN THE RIDGING...AND OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WAS A 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WHILE AN EARLIER MCV FROM AFTERNOON STORMS IN 
EASTERN WISCONSIN...RAN THROUGH THE STRAITS. THIS MCV SPREAD SOME 
SPRINKLES IN SRN SECTIONS OF EASTERN UPPER...BUT THE MAIN ACTION WAS 
WITHOUT A DOUBT THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SECTIONS OF NC/NE 
LOWER MICHIGAN FROM YESTERDAY. THE MCV IS LOSING IT'S STRENGTH AND 
ALSO RUNNING INTO SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENT FOR 
CONTINUED RAINS. ATTENTION TURNS TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM IN 
WISCONSIN...WHERE LOW TO MID LEVEL WAA ON NOSE OF WEAKISH LLJ...HAS 
EXPANDED RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS. RAINFALL 
RATES IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS RANGED FROM 0.5" TO 1.0". QUESTION IS 
HOW WELL WILL THESE RAINS HOLD TOGETHER AS THEY CONTINUE TO TRACK 
EASTWARD INTO NW LOWER THROUGH DAYBREAK? THE FOLLOWING QUESTION WILL 
BE HOW MUCH COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY CAN WE GENERATE FOR ADDITIONAL 
HEAVY RAINS TODAY?...AND HOW WILL THAT PRECIPITATION EVOLUTION 
TRANSLATE INTO TONIGHT? WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FLOODING 
FOR PORTIONS OF OTSEGO AND MONTMORENCY COUNTIES...AS WELL AS THE I-
75 CORRIDOR IN OGEMAW...GLADWIN AND ARENAC COUNTIES...WHERE SOME OF 
THE HEAVIEST RAINS FELL.
 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER:

THE MCV HAS TRACKED THROUGH EASTERN UPPER AND PROVIDED SOME LIGHT 
RAIN/SPRINKLES...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE FROM WISCONSIN HAS A WELL 
IDENTIFIED VORT MAX SPINNING ITS WAY TOWARD NW LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS 
FEATURE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA 
THROUGH DAYBREAK...WITH EXACT EVOLUTION OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH 
LATE MORNING UNKNOWN. MOST ALL OF NRN LOWER HOWEVER WILL BE SEEING 
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...AIDED BY WHATEVER DAYTIME 
HEATING WE CAN GET...PLUS THE FORCING FROM THE WAVE. STILL LOOKING 
LIKE THE AFTERNOON HOURS...LESS ACTIVITY FOR EASTERN UPPER. NOT AS 
MUCH INSTABILITY AS YESTERDAY (500-800J/KG OF MLCAPE)...SO STORMS 
SHOULD BE MORE GARDEN VARIETY...BUT STILL POSING THE THREAT FOR 
HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING ISSUES. THIS THREAT CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT...BUT 
WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY. THE SHORTWAVE REMAINS OVER NRN MICHIGAN WITH 
TOO DIFFICULT OF A TASK TO DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST FORCING WILL 
RESIDE. THE THING OF IMPORTANCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME AREAS 
GETTING CONTINUAL HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...AND RESULTING 
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS THREAT IS RATHER LOCALIZED AND WITH 
LOSS OF THE BETTER INSTABILITY...NO WATCH PRODUCTS FOR FLOODING WILL 
BE ISSUED. MORE THAN LIKELY TONIGHT...DO EXPECT A DROP IN SHOWER 
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...AS MORE DATA THAN NOT SUGGESTS A WEAKENING 
UPPER TROUGH. BEST ACTION IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF M-32 THROUGH 
THE NIGHT.  
 
HIGHS RANGING IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...PESKY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE...

THE TOUGH FORECAST CONTINUES DUE TO THE SHORT WAVE RIDDEN RIDGE. 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH 
MINNESOTA AND THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN BY MOST MODELS TO STALL OUT 
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE LIFTING OUT TO 
THE NORTH. THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO INTRODUCE POPS FOR FRIDAY...WITH 
LOW END CHANCES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY AS WELL...AT LEAST ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE 
SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW DUE TO LIMITED AMOUNTS OF 
INSTABILITY THOUGH AS WELL AS LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. HOWEVER...HEAVY 
RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE DUE TO PW/S OF AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND THE 
LIGHT WIND FLOW. TRICKY TEMPERATURES TOO DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OVER THE 
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. WILL HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO 
LOWER 80S THEN RUN WITH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THEN COOLING OFF NEXT WEEK...

EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
WILL STRENGTHEN SUNDAY YIELDING VERY WARM AND PRECIPITATION FREE 
CONDITIONS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN BRING CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT ON INTO LABOR DAY 
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN SHOWN TO BUILD IN TUESDAY ENDING THE 
SHOWER THREAT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL BRING MORE CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL 
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY THEN FALL OFF TO NEAR AVERAGE OR 
SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

...SOUPY CONDITIONS PERSIST...

WARM/HUMID AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MVFR AND
POSSIBLE IFR FOG AT THE TERMINAL SITES AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN/EASTERN 
WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD INTO NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT AND HANG OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED
BATCH OF SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO NRN LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE OVERNIGHT AND PERCOLATE ACROSS NRN LOWER MICHIGAN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH BULK OF PRECIP WILL
TEND TO CONTRACT INLAND. THUS...ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP
TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES LATER OVERNIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING
(APN). 

SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING AND LIKELY SET THE STAGE
FOR MORE SOUPY CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...UNDER 10 KNOTS ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 225 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT INTO NRN MICHIGAN TODAY...BRINGING MORE 
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. STORMS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY 
WITH NO EXPECTED ISSUES FOR WAVES/WINDS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED 
HOWEVER. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW LONG THIS LOW PRESSURE 
LINGERS...BECAUSE IT SURE DOESN'T WANT TO LEAVE. SHOWERS COULD BE 
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS OVER THIS TIME HOWEVER...ARE 
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT. 

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...SMD
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SMD