000
FXUS62 KTBW 200759
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
259 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SAT)...ANOTHER COLD START THIS MORNING WITH DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AREA. TEMPS TO
WARM TODAY BUT REMAIN ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OFF THE GULF. VORT MAX MOVING THRU THE
DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT TO PUSH SFC DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS WARMER TEMPS BUT STILL 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL. FRONT TO PASS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS FRI MORNING INTO
SOUTHERN AREAS FRI AFTERNOON UPPER TROF NOT AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS
ONE SO SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
REMAIN N OVER THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS TEMPS REMAIN
COOL FRI-SAT.
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY)...THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH
A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW U.S. AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRACKS
EASTWARD DURING THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING OFFSHORE BUT CONTINUING TO RIDGE BACK TO THE GULF.
FOR MON AND TUE...A DEEPENING TROUGH MOVES ALONG THE CANADIAN/U.S.
BORDER INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS IT`S SURFACE REFLECTION TRAILS
A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF. ON TUE THE LOW IS OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH THE FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE EAST GULF AND FL.
BY WED...THE LOW IS OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH THE FRONT WELL EAST OF THE
STATE. AN UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE GULF COAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
THE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY WITH NE AND EAST FLOW MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MON. THEN THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TUE AND TUE EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WED AS THE FRONT
EXITS AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE GULF WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION (20/06Z - 21/06Z)...VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS THIS MORNING BACK
TO WEST AND NW TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OUT OVER THE GULF. SKC
PREVAILS ALTHOUGH THERE MAY SOME AFTERNOON CU/STRATOCU.
&&
.MARINE...WEAK RIDGE AXIS TO STRETCH OVER THE E GULF TODAY FOR
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND SMALL SEAS. COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
GULF OVERNIGHT THEN THRU THE E GULF FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION ON BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS QUICKLY
INCREASING SEAS INTO HEADLINES CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
REMAINS N OF THE AREA BUT TIGHT GRADIENT TO KEEP NE WINDS AND SEAS
ELEVATED FRI NT-SAT THEN E SUNDAY. GRADIENT FINALLY RELAXES LATE
SUN INTO MON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIRMASS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. WESTERLY
FLOW TO KEEP MIN RHS JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS ALONG COASTAL ZONES
BUT INTERIOR AREAS TO SEE LONG DURATIONS OF BELOW 35 PERCENT RHS
AND HAVE ISSUED RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE INTERIOR AREAS. ON
FRIDAY POST FRONTAL LEVY COUNTY TO HAVE LOW RH FOR AROUND 4 HOURS
SO HAVE ISSUED FIRE WX WATCH. DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 68 51 68 45 / 0 0 5 5
FMY 71 50 74 48 / 0 0 5 5
GIF 68 48 68 45 / 0 0 5 5
SRQ 68 49 69 45 / 0 0 5 5
BKV 68 40 66 35 / 0 0 5 0
SPG 67 55 67 51 / 0 0 5 5
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DE SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-POLK-SUMTER.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR CITRUS-HERNANDO-
LEVY-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LEVY.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/MARINE....25/DAVIS
LONG TERM/AVIATION...09/RUDE
