000
FXUS64 KEPZ 201043
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
335 AM MST THU NOV 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH FEW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT MOVING WEST ACROSS
THE BORDERLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL USHER IN A BRIEF COOL
SPELL AS TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH NEAR NORMAL AND BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL UPPER LOW OFF THE BAJA WILL
TURN WINDS SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING IN A FEW HIGHER
CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO WARM TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL.
LONGER RANGE FORECASTS ARE STARTING TO SHOW A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR
THANKSGIVING AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES TO WESTERN ARIZONA.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE NOW FLATTENED OUT INTO ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TROUGH/UPPER FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
BROUGHT A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
THE GFS SHOWS THESE CLOUDS INTO NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. MAIN SHORT
WAVE AND PACIFIC FRONT TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF US TONIGHT. BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON THIS MORNING`S IR IMAGERY...CURVING
NORTHWEST FROM ABOUT LUBBOCK TO JUST WEST OF TUCUMCARI. PRETTY
CHILLY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOW THIS...SO
TRENDED FORECAST TEMPS COOLER TODAY AND TOMORROW. BOTH NAM/GFS BRING
EAST WINDS AND SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION INTO THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT.
SMALL WAVE ON PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER FRONT...WILL FORM AND TO
JUST OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA SATURDAY. GFS STILL SHOWS SOUTHERN BRANCH
OF JET ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW AND OVER THE AREA SUNDAY. DYNAMICS
AND LIFT DON`T LOOK QUITE AS GOOD AS PREVIOUS RUNS SO JUST KEPT GRID
POPS IN TOKEN CATEGORY. THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AS SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES INTO AREA MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. BY TUESDAY RIDGE AXIS IS
OVER THE AREA AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BRINGS HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE WELL
OUT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW. TUESDAY THE SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES
WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE INITIAL HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE IN THROUGH
THE AREA. UPPER LOW REACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST WEDNESDAY AND
WESTERN ARIZONA ON THANKSGIVING...GIVING US A CHANCE OF RAIN. GFS
HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT LAST COUPLE RUNS ON THIS FEATURE...GIVEN
HOW FAR OUT IT IS YET. ECMWF A BIT FASTER...BRINGING TROPICAL TAP
OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING ON THANKSGIVING.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID 20/12Z-21/12Z...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS 15-25 KTS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH 12Z. GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KTS
ALONG WEST SLOPES OF TERRAIN FROM ABOUT 04Z THROUGH 12Z. EXPECT LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE AND POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ASSOCD WITH THESE
WINDS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
DURING THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTY EAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND DUE TO
THIS HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST BRING MOIST SOUTHWEST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. VENTILATION GENERALLY FAIR TO POOR TODAY AND
POOR FRIDAY...MAINLY DUE TO LOW MIXING HEIGHTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO 66 35 59 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA TX 64 31 53 29 61 / 0 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 66 32 58 30 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 63 29 55 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 49 25 43 19 48 / 0 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 31 57 28 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 60 30 51 24 60 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEMING 66 31 59 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 32 60 29 64 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
17 HEFNER
