000
FXUS61 KAKQ 200932
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
432 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVC WARM ADV CLOUD COVER IS COMPLETELY COVERING THIS CWA THIS
MORNING...AND CERTAINLY AIDING IN MODERATING LOW TEMPS. TEMPS THUS
FAR THIS MORNING...ABOUT 10 DEG WARMER THAN EXPECTED. MDL RUNS
FROM LAST NIGHT ACTUALLY PICKED UP ON THIS BETTER THAN CURRENT
RUN...AND BASED ON SAT TRENDS CLD CVR DOESN`T LOOK TO MV OFFSHORE
UNTIL LATE THIS MORNING...SO WOULD NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO PLUMMET IN
THE INTERIM.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 8-10 DEG WARMER THAN WED AS
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. HIGHS UPR 40S TO MID
50S. MDLS HV SPED UP TIMING OF THIS FRONT...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE REALLY COLD AIR WILL COME LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPR TROF.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A RETURN OF THE COLD AIR COMES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOWS DROP TO
MID 20S TO AROUND 30 TONIGHT. BEEFED UP CLD COVR OVR SRN COUNTIES
TONIGHT...AS MDL SOUNDINGS...PARTICULARLY THE GFS SHOW A DEEP
SATURATED LAYER AROUND 8000 FT. PROVIDED ENUF LIFT AS DEPICTED BY
THE GFS...THERE IS A CHC THAT FLURRIES MAY DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES. (INCLUDING MECKLENBURG AND NC.)
HV ADDED MENTION OF THIS TO FORECAST.
BY LATER FRI MORNING...COLUMN PRETTY MUCH DRIES UP...AND WITH IT THE
CHC`S FOR FLURRIES. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ERN SHORE WITH THE
SLIGHT CHC FOR -SHSN POSSIBLE AS THE STRENGTHENING UPR TROF SHIFTS
EAST. ALSO...CONSIDERING THE VERY COLD AIR RUNNING DOWN OVER THE BAY
FRI AFTN AND THRU THE OVERNIGHT...THE FORMATION OF BAY EFFECT
-SHSN CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HV MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHC OF -SHSN
FOR THIS AREA ATTM. FRI NIGHT ON TRACK TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF
THE SEASON THUS FAR WITH LOWS EXPECTED IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S.
SAT/SUN LOOK QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVR THE REGION FROM THE
W. HIGHS IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS...WITH LOWS 20-34 SAT NIGHT...AND UPR
20S-30S SUN NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS MENTIONED...THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD SAT NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL
ONLY BE IN THE MID 20S TO LWR 30S (MID 30S AT THE COAST). HIGH
TEMPS REMAIN WELL BLO NORMAL SUN...45 TO 50. THE HIGH WILL THEN
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER
SW FLOW...WITH HIGHS IN THE LWR 50S TO UPR 50S ON MON.
THE FRONT MOVES THRU LATE MON THRU TUE. GFS KEEPS AN AREA OF LOW
PRES WELL TO OUR N OVER SERN ONTARIO/UPSTATE NY...WHILE THE ECMWF
PROGS A TRACK MUCH FARTHER TO THE S...RIGHT OVER ERN PORTIONS OF
OUR FA. WITH SUCH DISAGREEMENT WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS FOR NOW. WILL STICK WITH A CHANCE OF LIQUID PRECIP WITH
FROPA (EXCEPT FAR NW PORTIONS WHERE TEMPS MAY BE COOL ENUF FOR -SN
OR A MIX BRIEFLY MON NIGHT. THE SFC FRONT WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE BY
TUE NIGHT...BUT AN UPR LVL TROF WILL LINGER OVER ERN US THRU WED
AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN COLD...HIGHS MID TO UPR 40S...LOWS UPR 20S
TO UPR 30S RIGHT AT THE COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AREA OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LOWERING LAYER OF
WAA CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. CIGS HAVE DROPPED
FROM AROUND 8-9 KFT TO AROUND 6 KFT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...
STILL WELL ABOVE THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. EXPECT THESE HIGH-BASED
STRATO-CU TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED LATER TODAY WITH THE
DOWNSLOPING (WESTERLY) LLVL FLOW AND WITH THE RELATIVELY WARM/DRY
SECTOR MOVING IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT IN THE MORNING AND WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTN.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL US THU
AND FRI. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE MS RIVER
THRU FRI WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE NW AND BRISK AT TIMES
THROUGH FRI. SOME BAY EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRI...
THOUGH NO MVFR/IFR IMPACT EXPECTED TO TAF SITES. VFR WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SWELLS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE CSTL WATERS...NOW BELOW 5
FT. THEREFORE PREVIOUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED. G
MEANWHILE...PRE-FRONTAL WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BTWN
15-20 KT THIS AFTN OVER CHES BAY...THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE SCA
HEADLINE FOR THAT REGION BEGINNING AT 18Z OR 1 PM EST. SCA
CONDITIONS (BOTH WINDS AND WAVES) WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRI WITH THE COLD AIR/NW SURGE FOLLOWING THE
FRONT...WITH CONTINUED CONFIDENCE THAT GALE FORCE CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN BY LATE FRI AFTN OVER THE CSTL WATERS. HIGH PRES AND MORE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN SUN INTO EARLY MON.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 PM EST SATURDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BKH
MARINE...BKH
