000
FXUS62 KTBW 201616
AFDTBW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1116 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008
.FIRE WEATHER...RH TRENDS COMBINED WITH FORECAST NORTHERLY WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MEAN A GOOD SHOT AT CHARLOTTE AND LEE COUNTIES
MAKING RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HAVE EXPANDED THE WARNING TO INCLUDE
THESE COUNTIES. MANATEE AND SARASOTA COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSE...BUT
WINDS SHOULD BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY...ALLOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST AIRMASS TO SHIFT IN OFF THE GULF.
ALSO DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WARNING TILL 6 PM...AS SOME SITES COULD
STILL BE DOWN BETWEEN 5 AND 6.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008/
DISCUSSION...AFTER A VERY CHILLY START TO THE MORNING WITH SOME NEW
RECORD LOWS BEING OBSERVED (SEE PNSTBW FOR COMPLETE DETAILS ON THE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THIS MORNING) TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND ~50 TO THE LOWER
50S CENTRAL AND SOUTH UNDER SUNNY SKIES. THE FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
NATURE COAST WAS ALLOW TO EXPIRE AT 8 AM EST.
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A VERY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DESPITE AMPLE
SUNSHINE. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST SHORTLY TO REMOVE THE FREEZE WARNING
HEADLINES AND FROST WORDING...OTHERWISE NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINAL SITES
THROUGH FRIDAY.
MARINE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SUPPORT A LIGHT NORTHWEST
TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW AND SLIGHT SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH NO CHANGES EXPECTED
IN THE NEXT FORECAST ISSUANCE LATER THIS MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...VERY DRY AIR COMBINED WITH A WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL SUPPORT
RED FLAG CONDITIONS OVER INTERIOR LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. ACROSS COASTAL COUNTIES DEVELOPING
ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES JUST ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT
WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR...AN IF NEEDED WILL EXPAND CURRENT RED FLAG
TO OTHER COUNTIES IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CHARLOTTE-DE
SOTO-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-LEE-POLK-SUMTER.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR LEVY.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE....57/MCMICHAEL
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...55/SHARP
