000
FXUS65 KSLC 080306
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
905 PM MDT SUN SEP 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A PREDOMINANT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RESIDES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PUSH A VERY SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHWEST WYOMING AND NORTHEAST UT LATE TONIGHT.
A WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
ALLOW FOR WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY...HIGH BASED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTH INTO THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
FOR HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT MONDAY. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO SPREAD INLAND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WITH
RESPECT TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE EC HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST 3-4
RUNS...DROPPING A CLOSED LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WOULD LIKELY
EXTEND THE PRECIP THREAT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY.
GOING FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...AND NO UPDATES ANTICIPATED.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT KSLC TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A WEAK TROUGH OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL TURN
THE FLOW OVER UTAH TO SOUTHERLY FOR THE BEGINNING PART OF THE WEEK.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY TAPPED SOME MOISTURE OVER ARIZONA
AND BROUGHT IT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON. A
DEEPER SOURCE OF MOISTURE WILL BE TAPPED MONDAY AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...MAINLY MOUNTAINS
MONDAY...AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE DISTRICT FROM TUESDAY FORWARD. BY MID WEEK A SYSTEM WILL
DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE
ENHANCING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN UTAH.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SEAMAN/STRUTHWOLF
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
