000
FXUS65 KABQ 201005
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
305 AM MST THU NOV 20 2008
.DISCUSSION...
BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS MORNING IS HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
WHAT..IF ANY...PRECIP FORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS BANKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTHWARD TO KCQC...AND EASTWARD TOWARD
PORTALES. HOWEVER...BEST PRESSURE RISES REMAIN FARTHER
NORTHEAST...NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. THUS BEST PUSH ON THE
FRONT IS STILL COMING...AND THAT PUSH LOOKS TO HAVE JUST PASSED
CLAYTON AND RATON. BEHIND THIS REINFORCEMENT...MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE STATE...AND WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE.
LEADING EDGE OF THIS PUSH IS WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS ARE...THEN
DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND IT. PREVIOUS SHIFT INSERTED SOME
TOKEN POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND THOUGH NOT CONVINCED THAT THE
AREA WILL RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION...WILL LEAVE IN FOR NOW.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEAR UPSLOPE REGIONS AS
WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. WILL GO WITH A MIX OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE...FOG...AND LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THESE AREAS. AS SAID
PREVIOUSLY...WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE. AREAS NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER
SUCH AS KCAO AND KCVS MAY BRIEFLY REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL NOT GO WITH A WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER. THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ABQ METRO AREA WILL SEE AN EAST CANYON WIND
MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL TAKE SHAPE QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING...SWITCHING
WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THIS
SHOULD ERODE ANY CLOUD COVER/FOG THAT REDEVELOPS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT...THOUGH NOT AS
STRONG AS TODAYS...IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE MID TO
LATE WEEK...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
34
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS AT AIRPORTS WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN...THOUGH THE EAST SLOPES OF THE JEMEZ MTS MAY SEE
SCT LOW CIGS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF
CENTRAL MT CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER...AND AS FAR SOUTH AS
ROSWELL TODAY. CIGS OF OVC015 WILL BE COMMON OVER THE EAST THROUGH
AT LEAST 19Z IN PLACES LIKE KRTN...KLVS...KCAO...KTCC AND KCVN...
WITH AREAS OF OVC005 AND 3SM VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW...FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOME THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT THROUGH
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP OVER THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT.
NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 22Z. CHJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER FORECAST MODELS STILL INDICATE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT IS A BIT OF SNOW OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THIS IS
FROM MOISTENING AND COOLING OF THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BEHIND A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE BEST SURGE OF CHILLY AIR
WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. HUMIDITY READINGS
WILL RISE ACROSS THE EAST AS A RESULT TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH
A SLIGHT HUMIDITY RISE ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THEREAFTER A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO MOVE
OVER NM DURING THE WEEKEND AND LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND.
THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME COOLING AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
READINGS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE EAST. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM COULD IMPACT NEW MEXICO LATER NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRANSPORT WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION RATES
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS
THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO
TONIGHT...AND STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS OVER THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME GOOD VENTILATION RATES. THE NORTHEAST WILL SEE GOOD RATES ON
FRIDAY AS MODERATE SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP. VENTILATION RATES WILL
LIKELY ONLY BE POOR TO FAIR THOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH LIGHT FLOW EXPECTED ALOFT.
CHJ
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 61 29 56 28 / 0 0 0 0
GALLUP.......................... 63 20 60 17 / 0 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 61 21 58 17 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 71 30 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 52 16 52 16 / 0 0 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 51 19 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
RED RIVER....................... 40 14 45 16 / 0 5 0 0
TAOS............................ 51 17 52 15 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 51 23 51 27 / 0 5 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 53 24 53 27 / 0 0 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 55 23 56 23 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 32 54 32 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 28 56 27 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 56 30 53 33 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 58 28 54 30 / 0 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 62 28 57 26 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 23 55 27 / 0 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 20 55 24 / 5 5 5 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 56 27 53 28 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 47 24 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
RATON........................... 40 19 53 20 / 10 5 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 42 19 53 28 / 10 5 5 0
ROY............................. 41 23 51 30 / 5 5 5 0
CLAYTON......................... 38 25 53 33 / 5 5 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 44 23 57 31 / 5 5 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 44 24 56 30 / 5 5 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 48 24 52 29 / 5 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 41 22 52 30 / 5 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 42 23 53 29 / 5 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 52 26 54 29 / 0 5 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
34/40
