000
FXUS62 KFFC 200955 AAA
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
545 AM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE STILL THE DOMINANT WEATHER INFLUENCE...KEEPING
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES OVER US THIS MORNING. WEAK SHORTWAVE
CROSSING NORTH GA THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD DO LITTLE MORE THAN
INCREASE MID/HIGH CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY BECOMING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY. MODELS POINTING TOWARD SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW INTO GEORGIA ON
SUNDAY BENEATH A NICELY DIFFLUENT H2 JET PATTERN. A 50 KT LLJ
ALSO BRINGS STRONG WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT THROUGH
GEORGIA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 21Z SUN AND 03Z MON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH STILL SEEM LIKELY FROM THIS QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM. INSTABILITY LACKING...THOUGH THE CONSIDERABLE DYNAMICS
SHOULD HELP OVERCOME THE 100-200 J/KG CAPES TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDER. THE COLD UPPER LOW MOVING OVER TOP NORTH GEORGIA ON
MONDAY WILL LEAD TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY NORTH. H8 TEMPS AND THERMAL PROFILES
STILL VERY CLOSE TO BEING SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...
THOUGH LATEST MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP MENTION OF RAIN ONLY FOR MONDAY.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE MAY LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY IN
THE NORTH...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST WILL QUICKLY BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR INTO
OUR REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS POISED
TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP AS
INDICATED BY BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS...THOUGH BY THIS POINT THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS START TO DIVERGE WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THAT NEXT
APPROACHING TROUGH.
RRH
&&
.AVIATION...
ONLY CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS WIND DIRECTION AFFECTING EAST-WEST
RUNWAY OPERATION DECISIONS. CURRENTLY...SFC LOW AND FRONT WELL WEST
OF THE AREA...LOCATED OVER ARKANSAS UP TO THE OH VALLEY. FRONT
SLOWLY PUSHING EAST AND SOUTH AND SHOULD PUSH WINDS TO JUST WEST OF
SOUTH BY THE TIME VERTICAL MIXING KICKS IN. COULD SEE SOME 3 TO 6KT
WINDS JUST EAST OF DUE SOUTH THIS MORNING BEFORE 15Z...BUT SHOULD
NOT PERSIST. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS TO 18KTS AT KATL THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUDS PROGGED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TOP OF THE INVERSION AROUND 6-7
KFT MAINLY AFTER 18Z. STUCK WITH SCT BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND
CURRENT PATTERN EVEN THOUGH NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW RH HIGHER THAN
90PCT FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. CU WILL DIMINISH AROUND
SUNSET WITH HIGH CLOUDS BECOMING INCREASINGLY THICK. MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 15Z SUNDAY WITH SUSTAINED SE WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS.
SNELSON
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 76 50 64 42 53 / 5 10 80 60 30
ATLANTA 73 51 63 38 50 / 5 20 80 40 30
BLAIRSVILLE 68 45 61 39 47 / 5 10 80 70 30
CARTERSVILLE 73 46 63 38 48 / 5 20 80 50 30
COLUMBUS 74 50 63 42 53 / 10 30 80 30 20
GAINESVILLE 73 50 61 41 48 / 5 10 80 60 30
MACON 76 48 66 44 57 / 5 20 80 40 30
ROME 74 48 63 39 50 / 5 20 80 50 30
PEACHTREE CITY 73 44 64 39 50 / 5 20 80 40 30
VIDALIA 77 52 68 48 62 / 0 10 80 50 20
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
