000
FXUS63 KSGF 201140
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS DECK WERE MAKING THEIR WAY
SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE DAY. WE MAY EVEN SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SO
WILL NEED TO GIVE A LITTLE EXTRA ATTENTION TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE
GRIDS TODAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
PLAINS. I HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE MODELS ARE DRYING OUT CLOUD
COVER A LITTLE TOO FAST...WHICH WILL IMPACT MIN TEMP FORECAST. FOR
NOW WILL SKEW TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE MET MOS WITH UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S...BUT COULD SEE THESE BEING RAISED A LITTLE IF CLOUDS
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI ON FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. SOUTH
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. STILL PLAN TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON MOVING ANOTHER FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF GULF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE OZARKS...WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN LIQUID FORM. THEREAFTER WE SHOULD
SEE A WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TOWARD
THANKSGIVING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z KJLN/KSGF TAFS...THE STRATUS DECK HAS SPREAD SOUTH
ACROSS THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH LOW END MVFR
CONDITION OCCURRING AT THE KJLN SITE AND HIGH END IFR CONDITIONS
OCCURRING AT THE KSGF SITE. THIS STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY PREVAIL
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE KSGF SITE INTO THE MID
MORNING...THEN CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE
KJLN STIES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE KJLN
TAF. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN THE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
WISE
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
