000
FXUS65 KREV 220413 AAA
AFDREV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
913 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS EVENING. WINDS
ARE BEGINNING TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40
MPH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE TAHOE REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT THROUGH
5AM WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE LARGE PLUME OF BLOWING DUST IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA FROM THE
CARSON SINK WAS IMPRESSIVE, WITH DUST REACHING ALL THE WAY TO ELKO
AND EVEN EASTERN IDAHO. AT ELKO THIS EVENING, VISIBILITIES TO LESS
THAN 2 MILES WERE REPORTED THERE. IN OUR FORECAST AREA, WE DIDN'T
GET ANY REPORTS OF BLOWING DUST, ALTHOUGH THE MAIN AREA AFFECTED
WAS IN RURAL EASTERN CHURCHILL-PERSHING COUNTIES EAST OF FALLON-
LOVELOCK. HOON
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80.
SHORT TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAS PROVIDED GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WITH UP
TO 50-60 MPH ACROSS WIND PRONE AREAS SUCH AS GALENA AND WASHOE VALLEY.
AREAS OF BLOWING DUST ARE APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 2 MILES REPORTED AT LOVELOCK DERBY FIELD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEVADA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BEHIND A POTENT COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW
LEVELS WILL QUICKLY FALL BEHIND THE FRONT AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT NORTH OF EAGLE LAKE AND INTO THE
SURPRISE VALLEY BUT NO ACCUMULATION OR TRAVEL IMPACTS EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PRODUCE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA AND LOW TO MID 50S FOR SIERRA VALLEYS. COOL
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
REMAINS STATIONARY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH
OF I80 ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR SIERRA
VALLEYS. BY THURSDAY, AN UPPER DISTURBANCE (VORTICITY LOBE) WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE STALLED LOW AND WILL BRING BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF A PORTOLA TO GERLACH LINE. FUENTES
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
ONLY VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR INITIAL
POSITION OF TROUGHING THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL OSCILLATE TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
DRY. THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ENTERS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIERRA INTO MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN INCREASES FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DEVIATE FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS CONTINUES TROUGHING WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS BRIEF RIDGING FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD.
CONTINUE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH REMAINING BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF SOLUTIONS. CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR MONDAY, BUT MAY NEED
TO REMOVE SINCE THE LATEST GFS RUN HAS BEGUN TO TREND DRYER LIKE THE
ECWMF.
TEMPERATURES START A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FRIDAY BEFORE
WARMING TO AVERAGES OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE FORECAST
FOR MEMORIAL DAY WILL REMAIN PLEASANT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S IN WESTERN NEVADA AND MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR LOCATIONS
IN THE SIERRA. BOYD
AVIATION...
GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL PUSH THROUGH KRNO/KTVL/KTRK BETWEEN 09-12Z AND AFT 21Z
AT KMMH. BLOWING DUST MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF VIS BELOW 2SM NEAR
KLOL THROUGH 04Z. PERIODS OF LLWS FOR KTRK/KTVL DUE TO THE
CHANNELING EFFECTS OF THE TERRAIN BETWEEN 04Z-12Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT
NORTHWEST AND DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FUENTES
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
NVZ002.
CA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR LAKE TAHOE IN
CAZ072.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
