000
FXUS66 KOTX 151739
AFDOTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA
1039 AM PDT WED OCT 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
THIS FLOW REGIME WILL BRING A MIXTURE OF CLOUDS AND SUN...AND A RISK
FOR MAINLY MOUNTAIN PRECIPITATION. ONE SHARPER SYSTEM COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...ELEVATING THE PRECIPITATION RISK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS
THE REGION. PER SATELLITE...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS MOVING OUT OF
THE INLAND NORTHWEST AT THE TIME AHEAD OF A FAST MOVING AND WEAK
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE THAT IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER. SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS MY CWFA WILL NOT BE AFFECTED MUCH
WITH THE SHORT WAVE...WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION FOR SCATTERED CLOUDS. OTHERWISE A PRETTY NICE DAY
TODAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENT THE PAST FEW RUNS
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION BEGINNING TONIGHT. THEY
HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT MOVING A WARM FRONT UP THE BACKSIDE OF
THE BUILDING RIDGE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
PUSHES .70 TO .80 BY THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE PRESENT IN THE MODELS IT DOES APPEAR AS IF THE
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL VERY NEAR 12Z FOR
THE CASCADES AND PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES ON THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE INDICATING DECENT UP GLIDE ALONG THE 290-295K SURFACE
WITH LIGHT UP SLOPING WINDS AT 85H AND BELOW ...HOWEVER WINDS
ABOVE 85H ARE NOT SHOWING THE BEST VECTOR FOR THE EAST SLOPES AND
IT APPEARS AS IF SOME SHADOWING SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER
EAST SLOPES. INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. /TOBIN
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE UP ACROSS THE PAC NW
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT IT ISN`T VERY DEEP. DECREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIP IN THE MORNING BUT KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF WA STATE AND NORTH IDAHO. FOR THE WEEKEND WE
REMAIN IN GENERAL ZONAL FLOW. A COLD FRONT PASSES LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS HAS BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE THE LAST FEW RUNS. HAVE INCREASED THE CHANCE OF
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHEAST WA AND THE CENTRAL ID PANHANDLE FOR
SATURDAY. AFTER THAT WE GET SOME BROAD RIDGING WITH CLEARING
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS THAT EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVING TEMPS
BELOW FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A DECENT TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP.
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE TIMING...WITH THE BULK
OF THE PRECIP COMING MONDAY NIGHT. KEPT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES FOR MONDAY AND THEN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY DRIES OUT AS A
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE INLAND NORTHWEST. /NISBET
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING NEAR THE
CASCADES AROUND 00Z AND THEN ACROSS EASTERN WA/N IDAHO NEAR 06Z
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES WITH
CLOUDS BASES REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 6K FT AGL. LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS WILL YIELD GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 18Z/16TH. JW
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SPOKANE 55 33 56 41 65 44 / 0 0 10 20 10 20
COEUR D`ALENE 55 30 55 40 65 45 / 0 0 20 20 20 20
PULLMAN 56 35 60 41 69 45 / 0 0 10 10 10 20
LEWISTON 63 38 64 44 73 48 / 0 0 10 0 0 10
COLVILLE 58 28 59 37 62 39 / 0 10 20 20 20 20
SANDPOINT 55 32 53 37 60 41 / 0 10 20 20 20 30
KELLOGG 56 31 52 42 63 45 / 10 10 20 20 20 30
MOSES LAKE 61 36 64 41 68 43 / 0 10 10 10 10 10
WENATCHEE 59 41 62 44 67 45 / 0 10 10 20 10 0
OMAK 58 34 60 40 64 41 / 0 10 20 20 10 10
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&
$$
