000
FXUS65 KSLC 152133
AFDSLC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
333 PM MDT WED OCT 15 2008
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN UTAH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS
BRUSHING BY NORTHERN UTAH AT THIS TIME. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN UTAH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS IN MANY LOCATIONS BY FRIDAY.
SIGNIFICANT MODELS DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EVOLVE BEYOND SATURDAY.
THE 12Z GFS BRINGS A WEAK LOW EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF UTAH SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A DECENT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN UTAH. THE 12Z EC ON THE
OTHER HAND DOES NOT EVEN BRING THIS DISTURBANCE ON SHORE AND KEEPS
THE REGION DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE EC
AND KEPT MARGINAL POPS IN THE FORECAST.
THE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE TROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z
GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW IN EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN
COLORADO...KEEPING THE SYSTEM A BRUSH BY WITH VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THE 12Z EC WAS EVEN MORE
PESSIMISTIC...KEEPING A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH OF
THE CWA. THIS SOLUTION IS EVEN DRIER THAN THE GFS. DID NOT ADJUST
THE CURRENT POPS DOWNWARD...BUT IF THIS CONTINUES POPS ARE
OVERSTATED. NEVERTHELESS...CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION
IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONSISTENCY
HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT POOR.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE AT
THE SLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. NORTHWEST LAKE BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS RETURN AROUND
03-04Z.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
KRUSE/CHENG
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)
