000
FXUS61 KBOX 061708
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
108 PM EDT MON OCT 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TODAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER AIR LATE IN
THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO CROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE IS
LACKING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE
STEEPENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DRY UP AS THEY TRACK EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES. HOWEVER MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL VERMONT AND
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. TOTAL TOTALS IN THIS REGION ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE BRIEFLY NEAR 50...WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM
AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
OVERALL HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY MUCH OF THE TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST...IF WINDS DIMINISH ENOUGH. 06/00Z MODELS INDICATE
850 MB TEMPERATURES APPROACHING -1C...MAKING TONIGHT ONE OF THE
COLDEST SO FAR THIS AUTUMN.
MAV AND MET MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK VERY REASONABLE.
HAVE POSTED A FROST WARNING FOR MUCH OF WESTERN MA...NORTHEAST
CT...AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY NH LATE TONIGHT. MOST CONFIDENT
ACROSS WESTERN MA AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH COUNTY...BUT IT IS A VERY
CLOSE THING ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS OF NORTHEAST CT...ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BERKSHIRES.
DID NOT INCLUDE FRANKLIN COUNTY MA AND CHESHIRE COUNTY NH AS THESE
COUNTY HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED A WIDESPREAD FROST. HOWEVER...THESE
TWO COUNTIES MAY REQUIRE A FREEZE WARNING TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS NOT
VERY HIGH YET THAT AT LEAST HALF OF THIS AREA WILL SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES. SO WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
THURSDAY. BEYOND THAT...EACH MODEL SOLUTION SEEMED TO HANDLE UPPER
AIR FEATURES RATHER DIFFERENTLY...THOUGH SOME GENERAL AGREEMENT SEEN
IN SOME OF THE MEMBERS. BIG QUESTION FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL
BE WHETHER AN INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP...THEN LOW PRESSURE RUNS ALONG
IT BRINGING IN PRECIP FOR THE WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEANED
TOWARD THE GFS OP RUN AND ENSEMBLES...THOUGH NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF EASTERN CANADA WORKS
SLOWLY S ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLC COAST. THIS WILL BRING
DRY AND COOL WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF THE COAST...WINDS SHIFT TO W-SW WHICH WILL BRING A MODERATING
TREND. APPEARS THE HIGH SHIFTS E INTO THE WESTERN ATLC...WHICH WILL
HOLD OFF THE PRECIP FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MAY START TO SEE
LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODELS TRYING TO BRING THE FRONT INTO THE
REGION BUT TIMING IS IN QUESTION. SOME MODELS ALSO TRY TO WEAKEN THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST WHILE THE WESTERN ATLC RIDGE HANGS TOUGH.
KEPT IN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR FRIDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
REGION. LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MID ATLC COAST...THEN TRY TO
RIDE UP THE FRONT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. KEPT IN HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY AS THE FRONT WEAKENS TO AN INVERTED TROUGH. WILL
BE RATHER MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. NOT A WHOLE LOT OF
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SOLUTION...HOWEVER.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST CONTINUES. APPEARS THAT A WEAK HIGH
MAY BUILD OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BUT A LOT OF QUESTIONS AS TO
WHETHER THE INVERTED TROUGH REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO
KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS GOING. AT THIS POINT...LOWERED POPS TO SLIGHT
CHANCE WITH PARTLY SUNNY BUT COOL WEATHER. THIS MAY BREAK UP...WITH
DRY COLD FRONT POSSIBLY SWEEPING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE PATCHY IFR IN
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MA...RI AND EXTREME
NORTHEAST CT.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUE THROUGH THU...VFR. PATCHY NIGHTTIME FOG POSSIBLE WITH LOCAL MVFR
VSBYS.
THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR-MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOW
RISK OF IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 25 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS TOWARDS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR NOW AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT
TAKE A CLOSER LOOK.
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TUESDAY...NW WIND WILL GUST TO 20 KT MAINLY ON THE OUTER
WATERS...BUT WILL DIMINISH BY LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN AT
AROUND 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS...BUT WILL SUBSIDE AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
WITH HIGH PRES OVERHEAD.
THURSDAY...WINDS SHIFT TO SW BY EARLY THURSDAY AND WILL
INCREASE...THOUGH WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. SEAS WILL
BUILD UP TO 4 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS.
FRIDAY...SW WINDS WILL APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA MAINLY ON THE
WATERS EAST AND SOUTH OF CAPE COD. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 5 FT ON THE
WATERS S AND E OF NANTUCKET. VSBYS MAY LOWER TO BELOW 3 NM IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
MA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MAZ004-
008>011.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ015.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVT
NEAR TERM...STRAUSS
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
