000
FXUS61 KBOX 060947
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
447 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM WILL IMPACT INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW AND ICE. MAINLY DRY AND COLDER
WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
MUCH COLDER AIR SHOULD FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
LITERALLY THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM TODAY. SKIES ESSENTIALLY CLEAR
NORTH OF THE MA/CT/RI BORDER...WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE
SOUTH. THINKING THIS IS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CLEARING GETS EARLY THIS
MORNING.
LIGHT WEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY. EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
TODAY...THINKING TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE AS A COLDER
SURFACE LAYER STARTS TO ARRIVE LATER THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY COMPLICATED WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. EXPECTING SNOW TO START...THEN QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS MOST OF OUR
REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH WE WILL TRULY MEET WINTER STORM WARNING
CRITERIA...WHICH IS 6 INCHES OF SNOW OR 1/2 INCH OF ICE IN 12 HRS
ACROSS MA...CT AND RI. DO THINK THE COMBINATION OF MULTIPLE
PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF ICE
WILL PRESENT ENOUGH OF A HAZARD TO WARRANT A WARNING FOR CERTAIN
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS
LOOKING TO BE QUITE MESSY.
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT A WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED LATER TODAY. CRITERIA IS A BIT HIGHER HERE...7 INCHES OF SNOW
IN 12 HRS...AND BASED ON REGIONAL COLLABORATION...WOULD LIKE TO GIVE
NEXT SHIFT A CHANCE TO EVALUATE FURTHER.
USED A BLEND OF THE MOS AND RAW MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES.
WITH SUCH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION...THINKING THERE WILL BE A STRONG
LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG 925 MB WINDS
BETWEEN 60-70 KT FORECAST BY JUST ABOUT ALL MODELS...JUST ABOVE THIS
INVERSION. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. MAY NEED A HIGH
WIND WATCH...MAINLY FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. BUT SINCE THIS IS A
ESSENTIALLY A THIRD PERIOD EVENT...WANTED TO KEEP THINGS AS SIMPLE AS
POSSIBLE FOR THE MOMENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE A SURFACE LOW MOVES QUICKLY UP INTO CANADIAN MARITIMES.
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. PTYPE
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEHIND AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 30S.
SKIES CLEAR GRADUALLY OVERNIGHT ALLOWING LOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SO DESPITE SUN AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 20S...TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL LIKE
THEY ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS. OVERNIGHT...AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA THE CHANCE OF SNOW WILL INCREASE. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
SATURDAY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S TO MID 30S AND LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S.
SUNDAY...COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE TROUGH WITH CLEARING SKIES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY STARTING OUT
THE DAY AND DIMINISH AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TODAY...VFR...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS.
TONIGHT...VFR BEFORE MIDNIGHT...LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. SNOW TO START...THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/IFR IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. RAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
KBOS-KIJD BY LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WINTRY MIX OF
PRECIP. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT MIXED PRECIP TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. SW TO W WIND GUSTS 25-35 KTS.
FRIDAY...VFR. W WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS DURING THE DAY THEN DIMINISH.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW.
&&
.MARINE...
DIMINISHING WINDS TODAY...BUT EXPECT SEAS NEAR 5 FT TO LINGER ACROSS
THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS THROUGH MID MORNING.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS VERY LATE
TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SECONDARY COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKING OVER. WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD OF GALES
FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. GALE
WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND LOCATION IMPROVES.
OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 25 TO 30KTS
GUSTING TO 40 KTS. SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 4 TO 12 FT.
THURSDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30KTS SHIFT TO WESTERLY. GUSTS
DIMINISH FROM 40 KTS IN THE MORNING TO 34 KTS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY OVERNIGHT. SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS GUSTING TO 40 KTS. SEAS
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SLOWLY.
FRIDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS DIMINISH TO 15 TO 25 KTS. GUSTS 20 TO
30 KTS. CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY. SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
REMAINING AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
SATURDAY...WESTERLY WINDS 25 TO 30 KTS SHIFT BRIEFLY TO THE SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WEST. CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY OVERNIGHT. SEAS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ003-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ002.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ007-013>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR MAZ008>012.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR MAZ002>006-026.
NH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ231>234-250-254-255.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ250-
254.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/RLG
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...BELK/RLG
MARINE...BELK/RLG
