000
FXUS63 KSGF 201652
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1052 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION...
COOLER AIRMASS AND ASSOCIATED STRATUS DECK WERE MAKING THEIR WAY
SOUTHWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE DAY. WE MAY EVEN SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...SO
WILL NEED TO GIVE A LITTLE EXTRA ATTENTION TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE
GRIDS TODAY.
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE
PLAINS. I HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT THE MODELS ARE DRYING OUT CLOUD
COVER A LITTLE TOO FAST...WHICH WILL IMPACT MIN TEMP FORECAST. FOR
NOW WILL SKEW TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE MET MOS WITH UPPER TEENS
TO LOWER 20S...BUT COULD SEE THESE BEING RAISED A LITTLE IF CLOUDS
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI ON FRIDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY. SOUTH
WINDS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. STILL PLAN TO KEEP PRECIP OUT OF
THE FORECAST WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON MOVING ANOTHER FRONT
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF GULF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE OZARKS...WILL CONTINUE TO
INCLUDE LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN LIQUID FORM. THEREAFTER WE SHOULD
SEE A WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK TOWARD
THANKSGIVING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS TRACKING SOUTH INTO
THE CWA WILL AFFECT BOTH JLN/SGF AT THE ONSET OF THE 18Z TAFS AND
WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DRYING
NOTED FROM MODEL OUTPUT THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CLEAR OUT WITH
DIMINISHING WIND SPEEDS.
LINDENBERG
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
