000
FXUS64 KLZK 201140
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
540 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD...EXITING THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS NEAR
25 MPH POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER DARK. A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS AS IT PASSES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH A
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AND HELP TO ASSIST A DRY COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTH
THROUGH THE MID SOUTH. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA...HOWEVER WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE EXITING BOUNDARY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA. INCREASED WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH...WITH
GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH. PARTS OF THE NORTH COULD SEE GUSTS NEAR 25
MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
COOL CANADIAN AIR REINSTATES ITSELF OVER THE FA. BY LATE
FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL READINGS
THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
KEPT SLIGHT POPS IN FOR SUNDAY AS GULF MOISTURE FILTERS IN AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM...PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...A TREND THAT CONTINUES FROM THIS
TIME LAST NIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH SUPPORT OF THE OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS...AGREE IN MOVING A MID LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY WITH
THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM BUT DIFFERENCES WOULD NOT EFFECT OUR
SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS PERIOD. WITH MODELS REMAINING IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS
WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF.
MODELS AGREE THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
UPPER MICHIGAN PENINSULA WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ROUGHLY BISECTING
THE STATE FROM WEST TO EAST WHEN THE PERIOD INITIATES. BEST MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY THIS POINT AND WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH MONDAY MORNING AND TAPER THEM OFF TO THE NORTH.
BOUNDARY SHOULD CLEAR THE STATE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES THE BOUNDARY SOUTH.
HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE TUESDAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO THE
EAST OM WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE WEST AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS BUT NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT. NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED MONDAY WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR COMING
IN FOR DAYS SIX AND SEVEN. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE
GENERALLY ACCEPTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 47 23 44 25 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 63 32 51 26 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 46 21 42 23 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 59 30 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 54 29 47 26 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 59 31 49 26 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 59 30 50 25 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 44 20 42 23 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 48 24 45 25 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 56 31 47 27 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 52 26 47 24 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 50 26 46 26 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 53 29 46 27 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...61 / LONG TERM...56
AVIATION...56
