000
FXUS63 KABR 200922
AFDABR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS
MORNING...BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND FLURRIES WITH IT.
RADARS ACROSS THE REGION CONFIRMING FLURRIES TO SOMETIMES LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHWARD. IN THIS CWA KABR RADAR SHOWS THE
AREA BETWEEN THE JAMES AND MISSOURI RIVERS MAY BE SEEING PERIODIC
BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS RATHER THAN JUST FLURRIES. WILL KEEP
MENTION OF OCNL/SCT FLURRIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
WILL BEGIN TO SEE A DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE TO FLURRIES AND
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WORK
IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. CAA
PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AND WILL SEE EVEN COLDER 850 MB TEMPS
WORKING INTO THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA WILL SEE 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO ABOUT -14 TO
-17 C. WITH THE CLOUDS AND CAA...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY RISE A
FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE STUCK
IN THE 20S TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS STILL A GOOD BET AND HAVE NOT ADJUSTED LOWS THAT MUCH FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS SLOWING DOWN SYSTEM JUST
A TAD...AND ALSO SLOWING DOWN SATURATION JUST A BIT. HAVE
THEREFORE DELAYED EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF HIGHEST POPS SLIGHTLY
AND LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. STILL
ON TRACK TO SEE PERHAPS 2 OR 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN AN AREA FROM
ABOUT MOBRIDGE SOUTHEAST TO HURON. BUFKIT ANALYSIS A BIT DIFFERENT
FROM YESTERDAY IN ABERDEEN AND WATERTOWN IN THAT THERE IS NOT AS
MUCH LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION...BUT IT IS STILL EVIDENT IN
THE PIERRE AND MOBRIDGE AREAS. EXPECT SNOW AMOUNTS TO TAPER OFF
FROM ABERDEEN TO WATERTOWN. ANY SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE LOCATION OF
THIS SNOW BAND COULD MOVE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS CLOSER TO THE JAMES
VALLEY OR FARTHER SOUTHWEST TOWARDS I-90. BUT AS IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW...WILL KEEP HIGHEST TOTALS OF ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES IN AN AREA
AROUND MOBRIDGE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS HURON. INCREASED POPS A BIT
DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS SYSTEM HAS SLOWED DOWN JUST
A TAD. SATURDAY LOOKING QUIET AS SYSTEM WILL HAVE EXITED THE AREA.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS.
.LONG TERM...00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MAIN FCST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED DEALS WITH PCPN POTENTIAL
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH TEMPS.
MODELS ARE CONVERGING A BIT BETTER ON A SOLN FOR THE WEEKEND.
FRIDAY SYSTEM IS FAIRLY QUICK TO EXIT WITH SOME RECOVERY SEEN IN
THE 85H TEMP PATTERN THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. EC ALSO CONCURS WITH GOOD
WAA PATTERN IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT
NON-DIURNAL TEMPS MAY TAKE PLACE...BUT WILL WORRY ABOUT THAT WHEN
THE TIME COMES.
THERE ARE STILL SOME BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC WHEN
IT COMES TO THE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WAVE. THE GFS IS REMAINING
CONSISTENT WITH ITS KEEPING THE 5H LOW FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WHEN
COMPARED TO THE EC. THE EC DROPS THE CLOSED 5H LOW INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY. WITH THE GFS BEING SO
CONSISTENT...AND GETTING A BETTER HANDLE ON THE UPCOMING FRIDAY
SYSTEM WHEN IT WAS IN THE LONG TERM...HAVE OPTED TO LEARN MORE
TOWARD THE GFS SOLN. WITH THE GFS KEEPING THE MAIN FEATURES NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CWA...HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PCPN POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY. DID NOTICE THAT THE GFS IS TRYING TO SHOW SOME WEAK
85H-7H Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SUNDAY NIGHT...COUPLED WITH SOME VERY
WEAK 85H-7H FRONTOGENESIS SETTING UP. BECAUSE OF THIS...EVEN WITH
7H THETA-E DOWNGLIDE IN PLACE...HAVE KEPT AND EXPANDED WESTWARD
JUST A BIT THE 20 POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE 00-12Z MONDAY TIME
FRAME.
MODELS THEN AGREE ON 5H RIDGE PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH 85H TEMPS ABOVE ZERO THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCT VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH
17Z...WITH VSBYS BEING REDUCED TO 6SM OCCASIONALLY IN LIGHT SNOW.
NW WINDS MAY GUST TO 25KTS AT TIMES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
KMBG/KPIR AND KABR TERMINAL LOCATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NW WILL ALLOW VFR CONDS TO MOVE IN BY 00Z
FRIDAY WITH WINDS DIMINSISHING TO LESS THAN 10KTS. VSBYS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE UNRESTRICTED BY 00Z AS COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW
DECREASES WITH HIGH BUILDING IN.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...HINTZ
WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN
