000
FXUS62 KFFC 101859
AFDFFC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
259 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2008
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT-TERM MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE FIRST 36 HOURS...ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW AND
THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WILL BE IMPACTING THE RESULTANT WEATHER OVER
THE REGION. UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING IN OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WITH
THE UPPER LOW STILL IN PLACE...ALBEIT WEAKENING...THE RIDGE`S
POSITION IS PROVIDING ENOUGH CONFLUENT FLOW OVER NEW ENGLAND TO
ALLOW THE SURFACE RIDGE TO SLIDE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS BEGINNING
TONIGHT. BETWEEN THE EASTERLY FLOW PROVIDED BY THE CAD HIGH AND
THE MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE FROM THE UPPER LOW...HAVE CONTINUED
LOW POPS (SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE) IN SOUTHEAST ZONES...AND
HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER THAT WE HAVE SEEN THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN HIGHER THAN WE
SHOULD SEE THIS TIME OF YEAR...THOUGH HIGHS SHOULDN`T BE
ABNORMALLY LOW.
AS THE UPPER LOW IS DRAWN BACK EAST INLAND OVER THE RIDGE...THOUGH
STILL WEAKENING...PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE AREA SOMEWHAT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GFS IS DEALING WITH SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
BUT WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...THE MECHANISMS ARE THERE FOR A GOOD
RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE OTHER THING TO CONSIDER IS THE
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF QPF AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE RESULT IN
A SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE (WEAKENING) UPPER LOW. END RESULT...
MAY BE A BIT BREEZY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY UP IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
OTHER CONCERN IS TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. NAM PUSHES THE PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...CLEARING NORTHEAST GEORGIA OUT MUCH MORE
THAN THE GFS. WITH MUCH MORE RAIN...THE GFS HAS MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES (BY >10 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS) THAN THE NAM. ON
THE FLIP SIDE...WITH THE DRIER DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR SKIES...THE NAM
IS FAR COOLER SUNDAY NIGHT THAN THE GFS. HAVE TAKEN A COMPROMISE
FOR SUNDAY HIGHS AS THE SOURCE OF SURFACE CAA WILL BE MODIFIED
SOMEWHAT AND FLOW WILL BE OFF THE ATLANTIC...SO EVEN WITH THE
PRECIP (ACCORDING TO THE GFS) WE MIGHT NOT GET THAT COOL. BUT WILL
DEFINITELY HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE NEXT RUN HAS AND ADJUST IF NECESSARY.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH HAS SHIFTED FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY...CONTINUING TO
MODIFY...AS STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD BE SHUNTED TO THE NORTH AND BY MIDWEEK...WE
ONLY GET THE WEAK STRETCHED-OUT SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FRONT. A BIT
OF A PATTERN CHANGE SETTING UP BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A VERY
LARGE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
COUNTRY...IF NOT MORE...PUSHING THE RIDGE INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES TO REACH AT LEAST INTO NORTH
GEORGIA AS MOISTURE IS SPUN AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH
AND INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE TROUGH. DEFINITELY SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXTENDED SOLUTIONS WITH THIS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN SO DO
NOT HAVE PARTICULARLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SOLUTION. WE CAN
EXPECT A BIT OF A WARM-UP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MID-WEEK...
AND THEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AGAIN AS THE LARGE TROUGH BUILDS IN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BECAUSE OF THE EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...IN ADDITION TO THE
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES...NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE SHORT-TERM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 62 74 60 73 60 / 10 20 30 40 10
ATLANTA 64 76 63 74 61 / 5 10 30 30 10
BLAIRSVILLE 56 77 56 72 53 / 5 5 20 20 10
CARTERSVILLE 61 78 61 75 60 / 5 5 20 30 10
COLUMBUS 66 79 66 78 66 / 5 10 20 30 10
GAINESVILLE 60 75 61 72 58 / 5 10 30 30 10
MACON 65 76 66 77 64 / 10 20 30 40 10
ROME 61 81 61 77 62 / 0 5 10 20 10
PEACHTREE CITY 61 78 61 74 63 / 5 10 30 30 10
VIDALIA 66 77 66 78 62 / 20 30 40 50 10
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
TDP
