000
FXUS61 KOKX 072226
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
626 PM EDT SUN SEP 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN
OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ON TUESDAY...MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEN FOLLOW WITH AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA
LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HAVE LET THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 6 PM AFTER A PHONE CALL
TO JONES BEACH ADVISED THAT BREAKERS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 3 TO 4 FT.
SEAS AT MONTAUK POINT HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED TO 4 TO 6 FT. WILL UPDATE
THE HWO AND ZFP JUST TO DROP THE HEADLINE AS REMAINDER OF
GRIDS/FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MON AFT. IN
ADDITION...A WEAK SHORT WAVE BYPASSING THE AREA TO THE NW THIS
EVENING MAY BRING IN A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS...RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN NYC...AROUND 60 AT THE COAST...TO THE 50S IN
THE OUTLYING SUBURBS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE ON MON WITH A RETURN FLOW FROM THE
SW BY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH 85H TEMPS AROUND 12C. THIS
RESULTS IN DAYTIME HIGHS AROUND 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES SENDS A STRONG COLD
EASTWARD MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE SW U.S.
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN LATE MON IN A DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW...WITH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWERING AND THICKENING DURING THE DAY TUE.
WARM HEIGHTS ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER WARM
DAY ON TUE...AROUND 80 AGAIN. SHOULD THERE BE MORE SUN...READINGS
COULD GET UP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S. FOR THE TIME BEING...TOOK
A BLEND OF THE MAV/MET MOS. THE GUIDANCE HAS A RANGE OF ALMOST 10
DEGREES...WITH THE MAVS ON THE WARM END.
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON TUE WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. MODERATE INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH 40 TO 50 KT OF
0-6KM SHEAR RAISES POTENTIAL FOR SQUALL LINE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER INITIALLY DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SLIDES EAST BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS IS WHERE UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE. FIRST...THE MODELS
DIFFER WITH THE TIMING...STRENGTH AND WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THEN...WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF
HURRICANE IKE AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDES.
FOR NOW...SETTLED ON SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH NO
BIG CHANGES FROM DAY FIVE ON.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS. WEAK TROUGH OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN WINDS
JUMPING AROUND FROM WEST TO NW. FEEL MOST TERMINALS REMAIN WEST/NW
(280-300) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS OF 9-12 KTS DIMINISH AS
THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS GRADIENT WEAKENS AND DIURNAL MIXING
CEASES. WINDS LIGHTEN FROM THE WEST TOWARD EVENING. LITTLE CLOUD
COVER TO SPEAK OF...WITH MAYBE SOME AC TOWARD EVENING AS UPSTREAM
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH APPROACH. SKIES CLEAR
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS.
MAINLY CLEAR MONDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT WEST/NW WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS. COASTAL TERMINALS SUCH AS KJFK/KISP/KBDR AND KGON SHOULD BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR MONDAY AFTN AND NIGHT. SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD
PRODUCE SUB VFR CONDITIONS TUE AFTERNOON INTO TUE NIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
WED AND THU. SUB VFR POSSIBLE LATER FRIDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...
MODERATE SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH A
MODERATE RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES.
AS FOR ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS...SLOW IMPROVEMENT FROM
WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT. WILL ALLOW SCA FOR SEAS TO EXPIRE
FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT (00Z WESTERN ZONE...06Z CENTRAL ZONE AND
10Z EASTERN ZONE) AS WAVE WATCH DEPICTS. IN FACT WAVE WATCH IS
VERIFYING QUITE WELL AS COMPARED TO CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY MONDAY...AND PASSES TO THE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT. THEN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TUESDAY AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT. BORDERLINE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL LATER TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING IN SOUTH/SW FLOW. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THIS RATHER STRONG FRONT...AND SCA WINDS
ANTICIPATED FOR A SHORT TIME BEHIND THE FRONT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER WED AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAINFALL IS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH
ABOUT 0.5 INCHES EXPECTED BASIN WIDE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ353.
&&
$$
