000
FXUS63 KPAH 200557 AAB
AFDPAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1156 PM CST WED NOV 19 2008
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
19Z COLD FRONT POSITION IS FROM NRN IL-NRN MO. IT WILL CONTINUE
ITS SE TRACK W/ALL MODELS TIMING IT THRU PAH FA W/WIND SHIFT
AROUND/AFT MIDNIGHT. COLD AIR ADVECTION LAGS 3-6 HOURS BEHIND THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY...WITH START OF DAY THURSDAY 1000-500 MB
THICKNESSES DROPPING APPROXIMATELY 100 METERS BY THE END OF THE
DAY...AND ANOTHER 100+ METERS OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT. THEREFORE WE
WILL DEFINITELY GO TOWARD COLDER NAM MET MOS WITH REGARD TO TEMPS
THU-FRI. ALONG W/DRAGGING DOWN SOME CAA CLOUDS WE`LL ALSO GET A
STIFF GRADIENT WITH 20-30 KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE...SOME OF WHICH
MAY YIELD TO THE SURFACE DURING THE LATE AM-MID PM HOURS. SO IT`LL
FEEL EVEN COLDER THAN THE 40S FORECAST HIGHS.
THE MAIN MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE NEXT FROPA...PROGGED
SUN NIGHT-MONDAY. WE ELIMINATED THE SUN POP WITH NOW EVEN THE 12Z
GFS RUN FOLLOWING UP ITS 06Z RUN AND THE DGEX RUN OF SAME THAT
KEEPS THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THRU 00Z MON.
THIS YIELDS A SUN NIGHT-MON FRONTAL ASSOCIATED CHC -SHRA JUST A
TAD SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF...WHICH APPEARS TO BE PASSING THE
COLLABORATIVE MUSTARD AS WELL.
AFTER THAT FROPA...ANOTHER COOLDOWN...ALBEIT PERHAPS NOT AS
STRONGLY AS PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED. THE RESULT IS A MID GROUND
COMPROMISE BETWEEN WARMER MEX MOS AND HPC 12Z SUGGESTED
FIGURES...WHICH BLENDS REASONABLY WELL INTO THE COLLAB PIC.
&&
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO 6 TO 12 KTS BY 12Z...THEN
INCREASE AFTER 12Z TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 20
KTS...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR CLOUDS WILL REACH
KEVV...KCGI...AND KPAH AROUND 13Z...AND KOWB AROUND 14Z...BECOMING
VFR THEN SCATTERED AFTER 19Z. AFTER 00Z...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10
KTS OR LESS. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY EXPECTED.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
