000
FXUS62 KMLB 060817
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
315 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2009
.DISCUSSION...
...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
HIGHS TODAY NEAR RECORD LEVELS...
...MARINE CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...
TODAY/TONIGHT...
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING
BUT SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AS DAYTIME HEATING SETS IN. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH AND
OFFSHORE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY DEEPENS
AND MOVES SLOWLY TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA TODAY UP TO 10-15 MPH TRANSPORTING IN WARMER
MOIST AIR. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID
80S. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTH/NORTHEAST TRACK AND PUSH
A COLD FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY NIGHT...APPROACHING
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HOWEVER FRONT WILL STILL BE WELL ENOUGH WEST
OF THE AREA TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE TONIGHT
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5-10 MPH
WHICH WILL KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL ALSO BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT WITH TEMPS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOW/MID
60S.
WED...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD TWD THE TWD OHIO
VALLEY AND SE STATES WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 170 KT JET STREAK WHICH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE SE STATES AND TWD THE MID ATLC BY EVENING. SFC LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE THROUGH THE ERN GRT LAKES WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND FIELDS PROGD STILL WITH 40 KTS AT H9 AND 50
KTS AT H8 BY 18Z. MAIN INGREDIENT THAT WILL BE LACKING WILL BE
PRE-EXISTING DEEP MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. AIR MASS WILL BE INITIALLY DRY...ESPEC ABOVE H7 WITH MEAN LYR
RH PROGD OF ONLY 15-20 PCT IN THE H7-H3 LYR AT 12Z WED MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL FL. 12Z PWATS PROGD BARELY OVER AN INCH AND AFTERNOON
CAPE IN THE 100-300 J/KG RANGE PER THE 00Z NAM. SPC DAY 2 OTLK
INCLUDES AREA IN A SEE TEXT...BUT MENTIONS THAT MUCH OF THE MOIST
CONVECTION MAY BE TO SHALLOW FOR LIGHTNING GENERATION. HAVE SHOWN
MORE OF A RANGE IN THE POP GRADIENT WITH 60 PCT NORTH TO 40 PCT FAR
SOUTH WHERE LINE MAY TEND TO WEAKEN ALONG ITS SRN EXTENT. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS. EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDS
TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH CONVECTION REACHING NRN SECTIONS
BY MID DAY AND CLEARING FAR SRN SECTIONS BY LATE EVENING. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 70S NORTH TO LWR 80S FAR SRN SECTIONS.
WED NIGHT...HAVE INCLUDED A RESIDUAL LOW POP ACROSS SRN SECTIONS FOR
EARLY EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY BEFORE MEAN LAYER DRYING AND SWITCH TO
W/NW WINDS ENSUES OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S NORTH TO LWR 50S SRN SECTIONS.
THU-FRI NGT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN GULF ON THU WILL
TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER FL ON FRIDAY. NW WINDS TO 10 TO 15 MPH THU
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH DRAWS CLOSER.
MAINLY CLEAR FOR LATE WEEK WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.
SAT-TUE...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT GRADUALLY SE OFFSHORE AND ACROSS S FL
OVER THE WEEKEND. GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON SPEED OF NEXT FRONT MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECM OF THE LAST FEW DAYS SO WILL KEEP FCST DRY THROUGH
SUN AFTN WITH SEASONAL TEMPS. WILL INDICATE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
NRN SECTIONS SUN NGT INTO MONDAY AS NEXT FRONT FINALLY MAKES IT
ACROSS THE NRN PENINSULA. GFS/ECM DIVERGE AGAIN BY THE NEW DAY7 WITH
ECM ADVERTISING ANOTHER A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND GFS RETURNING THE NEXT
FRONT BACK NWD. WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE LVLS WILL INCLUDE A SLGT
CHC FOR A SHOWER ON THE UPCOMING NEW DAY7 FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...MAY SEE SOME BRIEF IFR/MVFR THIS MORNING IN ANY PATCHY
FOG THAT FORMS OVER THE AREA...MAINLY FROM 09-13Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND 10-15 KTS AND DECREASE ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 5-10 KTS TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD KEEP FOG FROM
FORMING LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH
AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT. MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. HAVE HOISTED AN SCA FOR OFFSHORE WATERS BEGINNING AT 06Z
TONIGHT FOR SOUTH WINDS AROUND 20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
RESPOND BUT STILL INCREASE UP TO 3-5 FT OFFSHORE. S/SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS ON WED AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
WATERS. EXPECT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OFFSHORE. W/NW WINDS WILL BE
STRONG WED NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE...ESPEC NRN
SECTIONS THU. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NEARBY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RAISE DISPERSION LEVELS
ON WED. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS EXPECTED THU WITH LONG DURATIONS
OF LOW RH POSSIBLE WITH MIN RHS BETWEEN 30-35 PCT FOR PORTIONS OF E
CENTRAL FL.
&&
.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS TUE JAN 6:
DAYTONA BEACH 85 (1936)
ORLANDO 84 (1990)
MELBOURNE 88 (1960)
VERO BEACH 85 (1997)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 82 66 75 47 / 10 10 60 10
MCO 82 62 75 48 / 10 10 50 10
MLB 81 66 80 48 / 10 10 50 10
VRB 82 66 81 51 / 10 10 50 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO
JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA
BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....VOLKMER
