000
FXUS66 KSGX 231632
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 AM PDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS
EXTENDING INTO THE INLAND VALLEYS. STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SHOWERS NEXT TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
THE MORNING NKX SOUNDING SHOWS THE MARINE LAYER ALMOST 3000 FT DEEP
WITH SOUTH WINDS BELOW AND WEST WINDS ABV A WEAK INVERSION. SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN ONSHORE WITH +6.8 MB SAN-TPH. AT THIS
TIME...A STRONG COASTAL EDDY REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS AND WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER THE
INLAND EMPIRE.
A LARGE-SCALE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN PLACE AND DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE MINOR DAY-TO-DAY
VARIATIONS...BUT WE CAN EXPECT GENERALLY COOLER CONDITIONS WITH
EXTENSIVE NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE MTNS...AS WELL AS
STRONG ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS FOR GUSTY SW TO W WINDS IN THE
MTNS AND DESERTS. THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT
WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH IN FAVORED LOCATIONS.
FOR LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS
ARE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WHICH SHOWS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING
IN FROM THE NW AND FORMING A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY MON NIGHT. SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF THE LOW MAKE FOR SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS. AT
THIS TIME INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE COULD SEE EVEN LOWER TEMPERATURES
WITH PERIODS OF PRECIP...MAINLY LATE MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE EVENING.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING WED AND
THU.
&&
.AVIATION...
231530Z...COAST/VALLEYS...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL BASIN THIS MORNING WITH BASES GENERALLY
2500-3500FT MSL WITH TOPS UP TO 4500 FEET. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BY
17-18Z. LOW CLOUDS WILL REDEVELOP AND MOVE ASHORE OVER KSAN AND KCRQ
THIS EVENING BETWEEN 01-04Z...AROUND 06-10Z AT KSNA IF AT ALL. IF
CLOUDS GET INTO KONT...IT WILL BE LATE. IN GENERAL...CLOUDS WILL BE
BASED AROUND 2500 FT MSL WITH PATCHY AND LESS EXTENSIVE COVERAGE
TONIGHT. EARLIER CLEARING EXPECTED FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN 15-17Z.
MTS/DESERTS...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED VIS THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
A SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL AND AN INCREASE IN NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CREATE CHOPPY SEAS AROUND SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND LATE TODAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. ISOLATED CONDITIONS MAY BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT.
THE HIGHEST/LOWEST TIDES OF THE MONTH...WITH SWINGS OF 8.9
FEET...WILL COMBINE WITH SURF FOR POTENTIAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
FRIDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. STRONG RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
THE COACHELLA VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN
DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...TS
