000
FXUS66 KSGX 061403
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
700 AM PDT MON OCT 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SUNNY AND WARM DAYS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.
...DUE TO SOFTWARE UPGRADE ISSUING AFD EARLY. SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS
MORNING. WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AND WARMER DAYS THROUGH WED...
INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BRING WARMING EACH
DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 IN THE
VALLEYS BY MIDWEEK. WARMING WILL REACH THE COASTAL ZONES TOO AS THE
MARINE LAYER SHALLOWS TO LESS THAN 800 FEET.
THE GFS DEVELOPS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE COAST WITH A 550
LOW OVER UTAH...GIVING US 582 N FLOW ALOFT AND 15 MB OFFSHORE
SURFACE FLOW FRI THRU THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD CAUSE A 3-DAY WARM
MODERATE TO STRONG SANTA WIND EVENT WITH ASSOCIATED ELEVATED
WILDFIRE POTENTIAL. UPPER AIR SUPPORT IS NOT INDICATED TO KICK IN
UNTIL SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODEL ARGUES THAT THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE MUCH FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR A SANTA
ANA. IF THE LOW ENDS UP SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...
SUCH AS OVER ARIZONA...A VERY STRONG SANTA ANA COULD RESULT. THIS
DEVELOPING PATTERN WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
&&
.AVIATION...
061400Z...WIDESPREAD VFR TODAY AS WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK AT ORANGE COUNTY BEACHES...SEE LAXSRFSGX.
$$
PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...SCV
