000
FXUS63 KOAX 200903
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
303 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING OUT
OF SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION. ON ITS HEAL IS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROF OF INTEREST APPROACHING THE PAC NW COAST. AT
THE SURFACE COLD HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING OUT OF CANADA WAS BUILDING
SOUTHWARD WITH CAA FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. MAIN CONCERN THIS
FORECAST CYCLE IS POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN CWA ON
FRIDAY. GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM GFS ADVERTISING POTENT SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SUPPORT FROM LATEST CMC AND
UKMET. STILL APPEARS AXIS OF LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM WESTERN ND TO SOUTHEAST SD
ALONG LIFTING SFC WARM FRONT. NOW LATEST GFS SOLUTION THOUGH HAS
PUSHED NW-SE TRACK OF SYSTEM A BIT FARTHER NORTH...AND SUGGESTING NO
SNOWFALL FOR THE NRN CWA. HOWEVER SYSTEM PATH IS STILL TO CLOSE TO
TOTALLY DISCOUNT THAT AND WILL THEREFORE OPT TO KEEP SMALL CHANCES IN
PLACE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. BEST SYSTEM DYNAMICS QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST EARLY SATURDAY WITH INCREASING 500MB HEIGHT ENVELOPING THE
REGION. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SFC HIGH SITUATED OVER OH/TN
VLY WILL ALLOW BACKSIDE WAA FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...RESULTING
IN A GENEROUS WARM UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK.
SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...BUT CEILINGS
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE ABOVE 3000 FEET AFTER 15Z. SOME FLURRIES MAY
OCCUR...WITH CLOUD TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR ICE CRYSTAL
DEVELOPMENT. DID NOT MENTION THIS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW...SINCE THE
VISIBILITY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE RESTRICTED. EXPECT SOME GUSTY WINDS
AS SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR SETTLES IN...BUT WINDS WILL DECREASE
BY EVENING. OTHERWISE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD DOWN FROM
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
DEE/MILLER
