000
FXUS64 KMEG 201046
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 AM CST THU NOV 20 2008
.DISCUSSION...10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY BACK THROUGH MIDDLE/WEST TENNESSEE AND THE NORTHERN
HALF OF ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AS OF FORECAST
ISSUANCE ARE PRIMARILY IN THE 30S UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
NEARLY CALM. CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE CLOUD
COVER/TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING BRINGING A
RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AIR BACK TO THE MID SOUTH TODAY. 11-3.9
MICRON SATELLITE TRENDS/METAR OBSERVATIONS AS OF 10Z SHOW THE
LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS LAYER STRETCHING FROM INDIANAPOLIS BACK
THROUGH FARMINGTON AND SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI WHICH HAS BEEN
DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORT TERM
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN 950-900 MB LAYER TRAPPED
BELOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI
STATE TODAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S NORTH OF I-40 AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEPART THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 20S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO MODERATE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LONG RANGE MODELS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. HAVE RAISED POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY AS BOTH 00Z
ECMWF/GFS INDICATE FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 12Z MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
CHANCES COMING TO AND END ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MONDAY
EVENING.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST CORNER OF FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND COLD FRONT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS WELL. SOME SCATTERED
CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE POSSIBLE.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 51 27 44 26 / 0 0 0 0
MKL 47 23 41 19 / 0 0 0 0
JBR 46 24 41 23 / 0 0 0 0
TUP 55 27 45 21 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
