000
FXUS64 KMAF 072344
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
644 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
NWS RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT CONVECTION IS STARTING TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
EARLY THIS EVENING. REMNANT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN IN
THE VICINITY OF THE CWFA TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A FEW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES...SO ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IMPACTING ANY OF
THE AREA TERMINALS CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TEMPO
GROUPS WITHIN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS...EXCEPT FOR KCNM...WHERE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN NEARBY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER E/SE LATER
TONIGHT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 131 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008/
DISCUSSION...
THE MID-LEVEL REMNANT CIRCULATION OF EDOUARD IS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER TROPICAL
MOISTURE /AROUND 1.6 INCHES OR 155 PERCENT OF NORMAL PER KMAF 12Z
SOUNDING/ AND DECENT INSTABILITY /CAPE 1500 TO 2000 J/KG/ NEAR AND
TO THE IMMEDIATE EAST OF THE CIRCULATION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF BIG SPRING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY.
PROGRESSIVE FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND MAIN SLUG OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE TODAY HAS TENDED TO REDUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
OUR AREA SO FAR TODAY...WITH A FEW AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN
BASIN REPORTING AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SHOULD
THIS SYSTEM SLOW DOWN ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL REMAIN
POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-20 THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CLOUDINESS AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE TO NEAR
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND
PROVIDES A FEW TRIPLE DIGIT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN THIS WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY BECOMES
ESTABLISHED ACROSS WEST TEXAS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF AN AMPLIFYING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS FLOW ALOFT WOULD
FAVOR ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STORMS DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
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