000
FXUS61 KAKQ 041947
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 4 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL
GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODERATE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH A WEAK TROF/SHRTWV ENERGY WILL
PRODUCE ISLTD TO SCTD SHRAS OR TSRAS ACRS THE REGION TNGT. NO SVR
WX IS EXPECTED...BUT ANY TSRA CUD PRODUCE GUSTY WNDS OR SML
HAIL...ESPLY THIS EVENG. OTHRWISE...PRTLY CLDY WITH MIN TEMPS IN
THE UPR 60S TO LWR 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPR TROF DEVELOPS TO THE W OVR THE OH VLLY FOR SAT INTO MON...HELPING
TO GRADUALLY PUSH THE FRNTL BNDRY INTO AND ACRS THE AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN DEEPER MOIST/ENHANCED LIFT OVR THE ENTIRE REGION
THRU THE PERIOD. THIS IN TURN...SHUD IMPROVE OUR CHCS FOR SCTD
SHRAS AND TSRAS PRODUCING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL FOR THE AREA.
MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 80S TO NR 90 SAT THRU MON...WITH MIN
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE COAST MON NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY WASHES
OUT OVER SRN COUNTIES BY EARLY TUE. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACRS
ALL ZONES EARLY MON NIGHT...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OVER COASTAL
LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT MON WHERE THE TAIL END REMNANTS OF THE
FRONT WILL BE. MILD TEMPS WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S/LWR 70S.
A WEAK TROF THEN MOVES OFF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY TUE.
RETURN/SW FLOW AROUND BERMUDA HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE (ESPECIALLY ACRS SRN SECTIONS)...AS WELL AS
WARMER TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE LWR 90S). HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRAS/TSTMS TUE AFTN/EVNG DURING PEAK HEATING.
EXTENDED MODELS MOVE ANOTHER FRONT THRU THE REGION ON WED. PLENTY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH SW FLOW STRENGTHENING AHEAD
OF FRONT/AROUND THE HIGH OFFSHORE. INCLUDED CHANCE POPS ALL AREAS WED
AS FRONT APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPS A BIT COOLER ON WED WITH ADDITIONAL
CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...GENERALLY NEAR 90. CHANCE OF PRECIP CONTINUES
ACRS SRN SECTIONS THRU THUR AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT AND DISSIPATES
AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. HIGHS SIMILAR ON THUR WITH BOUNDARY
LINGERING...NEAR 90. SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP FOR NEXT FRI WITH TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION POSSIBLE...WITH WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY. SMOKE PLUME MOSTLY BLOWING
OUT OVER THE LOWER CHES BAY WITH SW WINDS. SATELLITE SHOWS
INCREASE IN CU OVER NE NC AND CENTRL VA WHERE FIRST CONVECTION
LIKELY TO FIRE FOR OUR CWA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SLOWLY ADVANCING FRONT TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION
WITH REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS AS A RESULT. BEST CHANCE FOR IFR
CONDITIONS (MAINLY WITH REDUCED VSYBS IN HEAVY SHOWERS) WILL BE
FROM KSBY-KRIC AND POINTS W. VCNTY OF FRONT WILL PSBLY KEEP CHC OF
PRECIP OVER THE AREA LATE INTO NIGHT AND EARLY AM.
ELONGATED WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION FROM THE
WRN GULF WILL MAINTAIN A FAIRLY MOIST COLUMN OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE A MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT WRLY
FLOW FINALLY PUSHES THE SFC FRONT OFF THE COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
CONTINUED SHOWERS/TSTMS CHANCES AND PERIODIC MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS SAT THROUGH MON.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED DURING THE DAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT HAS
WEAKENED...WITH LATEST OBS RUNNING BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY ONSHORE WITH A WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED HEAVY SHRAS/TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE EVENING ACRS
THE BAY/SND/CSTL ZONES...WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHRAS/TSTMS. IN
ADDITION...AREAS OF SMOKE (FROM THE WILDFIRE NEAR SUFFOLK VA) WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM ACRS THE SRN CSTL ZONES REDUCING VISIBILITIES.
WIND PATTERN WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN...OFFSHORE WINDS LATER
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...THEN ONSHORE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTN WITH
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING YET AGAIN.
A COLD FRONT MOVES CLOSER THIS WEEKEND WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT. COULD HAVE BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENING AS THE
FRONT/BOUNDARY STALLS OUT NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS.
MEANWHILE...HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED NEAR BERMUDA THRU NEXT
WEEK...WITH ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST BY LATE WED. THE
NEXT FRONT THEN WASHES OUT OVER THE SRN COASTAL WATERS THUR THRU
FRI.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...JRL
