000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171943
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
343 PM EDT WED MAR 17 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO
THE MID ATLANTIC. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TDAS SPLENDID WX IS ONLY THE BEGINNING OF A STRETCH OF VRY NICE ERY
SPRING WX HEADED OUR WAY INTO THE WKND. SUBSTANTIAL WRMUP THIS
AFTN...AFT RDGS BOTTOMED OUT IN THE L/M30S IN MANY PLCS LAST
NGT...TEMPS HV REBOUNDED INTO THE M/U60S (AWAY FM THE WTR). SOME
HI CLDNS BEGINNING TO SPRD NNE TWD THE VA/NC BRDR ATTM...XPCTD TO
CONT THE TREND OVRNGT...REACHING AT LEAST CNTRL AREAS OF THE FA.
LO PRES JUMPS FM THE NE GOM TO OFF THE GA/SC CST OVRNGT. PCPN FM
THAT SYS WL STAY SSE OF THE MDATLC RGN...THOUGH AS STATED B4...HLVL
CLDNS WL CVR AT LEAST SRN HALF OF THE FA DURG THE OVRNGT HRS. LO
TEMPS TNGT ARND 30 ACRS INTR LWR MD ERN SHR...30S TO ARND 40 ELSW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LO PRES TRACKS SLOLY NE INVOF GULF STREAM THU INTO THU NGT...B4 MVG
OUT TO SEA ON FRI. OTRW...SFC HI PRES TO RMN NR THE FA. STILL
XPCTG BKN CLDNS AS FAR N AS SRN VA/NE NC THROUGH THU NGT (RA TO RMN
SSE OF FA)....B4 CLRG TREND TAKES OVR ERY FRI. FRI/SAT WL BE WRM
(FOR MID/LT MAR...AND ESP INLAND) - NRML HI TEMPS U50S/ARND 60
DEGS F - AS SFC HI PRES SLIDES FM OVR THE FA...TO OFFSHR...WHICH
(EVENTUALLY) RESULTS IN A RETURN FLO FM THE SSW. HI TEMPS THU/FRI
FM ARND 60 NR THE CST...TO U60S/L-M70S FARTHER INLAND. WDSRPD HI
TEMPS INTO THE 70S XCPTD ON SAT (THOUGH 60S AT THE CST). NGTTM
RDGS FALLING INTO THE U30S/L40S BOTH THU NGT/FRI NGT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDING BACK AND ALLOWING FOR
NEAR/JUST ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH UPR RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC. TO THE WEST...STRONG S/W TROUGH WL BE DIVING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT/ERY SUNDAY...TAKING ON A
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PUSHES A SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TN
VLY/GULF COAST REGION ON SUNDAY. HV TRENDED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
SOLUTION...WHICH IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS
(WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE MORE AMPLIFIED SETUP).
ACCORDINGLY...HV LOWERED CLOUD COVER A BIT EARLY SUNDAY AND
CONTINUED TO SHUNT CHCS ON PCPN BACK SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING. HV KEPT
POPS AT SLIGHT OR LESS BEFORE MID AFTN...WHICH BETTER CHCS COMING
LATE AFTN OR DURING THE EVENING W/ THE FRONT. GIVEN SLOWER FRONTAL
PASSAGE TIMING...NOT EXPECTING CONVECTIVE CHCS TO BE TOO HIGH SO HV
PULLED THUNDER WORDING FOR NOW. OTW...BKN-SCT LINE OF SHRAS COMES
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES CONTINUING
INTO MONDAY MRNG OVER THE EASTERN CWA. MORE SUN SHOULD ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN
THE 70S.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH PRES/UPR RIDGING THEN QUICKLY BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH DOWNSLOPE (W) FLOW ALOFT
ALLOWING FOR MAINLY DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD AND TEMPERATURES
RECOVERING TO NEAR/JUST ABV NORMAL BY MIDWEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...RECOVERING INTO
THE M/U60S TO NR 70 (AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER) BY WED. SEASONABLE
EARLY MORNING LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S TO NR 40.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR UFN AS HIGH PRS BLDS INTO THE RGN. HIGH LVL CLDNS FROM SRN
SYSTM STARTING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA ATTM...BUT ALL
SITES REMAIN VFR INTO THURSDAY.
THE NEXT WX SYSTEM MAY BRING PCPN AND MVFR/IFR CONDS LATE SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDS WX WISE OVER THE WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE DOMINATES WX ACROSS THE REGION. LGT FLOW CONTINUES TNGT...
BECOMING NNE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE VEERING TO THE S BY
LTR FRI/SAT AS THE HIGH PRES MOVES OFFSHORE. LOW PRES DRIFTING AWAY
FROM RGN PROGGED BY BOTH THE SWAN & WAVEWATCH TO KEEP LONG PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL UP THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO. SCA FOR HAZ SEAS WL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THU AFTN...AND MAY NEED TO EXTEND OUT A BIT
FARTHER FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES.
OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LTR
SUN/MONDAY...WITH PREFRONTAL S FLOW TURNING WNW BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
MONDAY/TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
POSITIVE ANOMALIES NOW DOWN TO ABT 0.5 FT OR LESS ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH THE HIGHEST OF THESE VERY MINOR DEPARTURES IN NORTHERN
CENTRAL BAY ZONES. THIS SHOULDN'T RESULT IN ANY FLOODING
ISSUES...BUT WILL NOTE THESE MINOR ANOMALIES IN UPDATED CWF THIS
AFTERNOON OVER BAY ZONES.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 4 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...MAM
AVIATION...ALS
MARINE...MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MAM
