000
FXUS61 KBOX 200819
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
319 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE MONDAY...THEN A STORM SYSTEM COULD AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
TODAY AND THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK AND MOISTURE
STARVED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING
THE DAY TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS A
FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME TO TIME. FOR MAXES...WENT A FEW DEGREES COLDER
THAN MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE UNUSUALLY COLD AIRMASS OVERHEAD...ALONG
WITH A DECENT CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
TODAY. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH
GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE DELIVERY OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR. EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS AND VERY COLD
TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS ACROSS A LOT OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
TEMPS BAY BUST A BIT HIGH OR LOW IN SOME LOCALES DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER. FOR NOW...PLAYED SKY COVER CONSERVATIVELY ATTM...WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW MINS TO GET DOWN CLOSE TO MAVMOS NUMBERS.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL AID IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
DURING THE DAY. THE LOW WILL REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP IT/S
PRECIP SHIELD OUT TO SEA...ALTHOUGH NANTUCKET COULD BE GRAZED BY A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES. TEMPS REMAIN A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S. SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS WITH
1000-500MB THICKNESSES IN THE 510-515DM RANGE. COULD EVEN BE A BIT
COLDER.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OFFSHORE COASTAL STORM WILL BE A MISS FOR SNE BUT WILL SERVE TO
BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND
SAT. MOST OF THE PRECIP FROM THE STORM WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CLIPPING CAPE/ISLANDS
FRI NIGHT WITH OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY DEVELOPING JUST TO
THE EAST AS VERY COLD AIR MOVES IN OVER WARMER WATER. LOW LEVEL
TRAJECTORY IS NW WHICH WILL KEEP OCEAN EFFECT EAST OF CAPE. THERE
MAY ALSO BE SOME FLURRIES FRI NIGHT IN THE INTERIOR AS UPPER TROF
MOVES ACROSS REGION. MOISTURE IS LACKING BUT 500 MB TEMPS COOLING
TO -40C.
THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR SAT AS 850
MB TEMPS DROP TO -16C. 2M TEMPS SUPPORT MAXES ONLY IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S SAT WHICH IS 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...SO WE
UNDERCUT MOS TEMPS. A DRY DAY EXPECTED WITH PT-MOSUNNY SKIES BUT A
GUSTY NW WIND WILL ADD TO THE CHILL. WIND CHILLS MAY BE DOWN IN THE
SINGLE NUMBERS EARLY SAT MORNING...RECOVERING INTO THE TEENS AND LOW
20S DURING THE DAY. A VERY COLD DAY FOR LATE NOV.
THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. UNDER MOCLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S.
HIGH PRES OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY BUT AIRMASS STILL RATHER COLD WITH 850
MB TEMPS STARTING OUT AROUND -14C AND SLOWLY INCREASING TO -10C.
MAXES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 30S ACROSS SNE WHICH WILL BE ABOUT
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LOOKING AHEAD TO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A POTENT
UPPER TROF/UPPER LOW DIGGING SE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT THERE
ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE EVOLUTION OF
A POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST SOMETIME TUE/WED.
OVERRUNNING AHEAD OF PRIMARY LOW WILL BRING CHC RA/SNOW SHOWERS
MON/MON EVENING...THEN A PERIOD OF HEAVIER PRECIP POSSIBLE BEYOND
MON NIGHT DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE COASTAL LOW.
GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS MAINLY RAIN FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH
SOME SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR. UKMET IS COLDER WITH SNOW
POSSIBLE TO THE COAST. THIS IS STILL TOO FAR OUT WITH CONSIDERABLE
MODEL SPREAD SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS VERY LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY...VFR...CIGS OCNLY BKN060-100.
TONIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...VFR.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
THROUGH SUN...MAINLY VFR...WITH OCNL MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE HYA-ACK FRI
NIGHT. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 30KT POSSIBLE LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
MON...VFR...BUT POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR IN DEVELOPING RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS LATE.
&&
.MARINE...
KEPT THE SCA GOING FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FOR THE OUTER WATERS
AS BUOYS STILL REPORTING 5-10 FT SEAS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF 25 KT GUSTS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE AS TONIGHT PROGRESSES. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
WELL SOUTH OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE
ADDITIONAL SCA ISSUANCES LATER IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
NW WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FRI NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COASTAL
STORM...WITH GALES POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. SCA WESTERLY WINDS
MAY LINGER INTO SUN...THEN DIMINISHING SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO OUR REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS
MONDAY AHEAD OF NEXT STORM MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ250-254-
255.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/EKSTER
NEAR TERM...EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...KJC
AVIATION...KJC/EKSTER
MARINE...KJC/EKSTER
