000
FXUS61 KOKX 271939
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
339 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY TRACK OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP WHAT IS
LEFT OF FAY AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH. SOME HIGH
CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA...OTHERWISE
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT QUITE REACH LAST NIGHT/S LOWS...BUT
LIGHT WINDS WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING AWAY FROM URBAN CENTERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY ON OVERALL FEATURES.
CLOSED UPPER LOW TO OUR EAST SLOWLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS NEXT SHORTWAVE
TRACKS ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD GREAT LAKES REGION. IN THE
MEANTIME...RIDGE ENSURES DRY WEATHER INTO FRIDAY. SOME MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FAY FINALLY BREAKS THIS RIDGE...AND
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ANTICIPATED. SUNSHINE FILTERED BY
HIGH CLOUDS THURSDAY...THEN OVERCAST CONDITIONS BEGIN TO MAKE THEIR
WAY ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS FOR RAIN...SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS AREA REMAINS CAPPED WITH RIDGE
OVERHEAD...AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES. BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LOCATIONS OBSERVING RAINFALL WILL BE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WEAKENS IN TIME AND BEST SUPPORT
REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST AS NAM SUGGESTS...BUT WILL INCLUDE CHANCE POPS
THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK
FORCING...CLOSER TO GFS OUTPUT.
TEMPS...SIMILAR READINGS FOR THURSDAY. FILTERED SUN COULD RESULT IN
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS THOUGH. COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
UNDER MORE CLOUD COVER. OVERALL READINGS REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT NEAR NORMAL AT NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ALL SIMILAR WITH COLD FROPA SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENING AND CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK ON
SUN. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. 12Z GFS/00Z EC KEEP IT FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT
WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE 06Z
GFS WAS FURTHER WEST. WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH WED...BUT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR TRENDS OF THIS CLOSED OFFSHORE SYSTEM.
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT NIGHT. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SUN MORNING WITH ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SEA BREEZES ENHANCED BY A SYNOPTIC EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHOULD REACH KLGA BY 19Z. WINDS
GENERALLY SE 10 KT OR LESS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING.
THERE WILL PROBABLY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
SHIFTS WINDS MORE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT HOWEVER. BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE TOWARDS THE EAST...AND AGAIN
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY
BKN CIRRUS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP DRY WX WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER
THE TERMINALS THROUGH FRI. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR SAT AS HIGH PRES MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR LIKELY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTH WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT...AND SHIFT WINDS INTO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS THEN TURN MORE TO THE ENE AT AROUND 10 KT ON
THURSDAY...AND PERHAPS CLOSE TO 15 KT AT TIMES. THIS ONSHORE
FLOW...COMBINED WITH A LITTLE SE SWELL...WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 4 FT
ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING A BIT
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO FRIDAY. ONSHORE WINDS OF AROUND 10
KT OR LESS THEN LASTS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SUN. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE WATERS
BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON MON
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ANTICIPATED. THERE COULD BE ABOUT A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SCATTERED. DRY AGAIN SUNDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PW
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/AL
HYDROLOGY...PW
