000
FXUS61 KOKX 280729
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
329 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY TRACK OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY AND REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NOSED INTO THE REGION AS LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA REMAINS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
WEST MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND WEAKENS. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN
AS CLOSED LOW MOVES INTO THE RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH FROM CENTRAL
CANADA PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE. GFS CONTINUES TO HANDLE THE PATTERN
WELL KEEPING MOISTURE AND RAIN WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AGAIN REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH FILTERED SUN
UNDER HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COMBINATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAYS HIGHS AND LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW
AND WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD THE AREA. SURFACE RIDGE
HOLDS PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THEN IS
WEAKENED AS COASTAL LOW MOVES FARTHER WEST AND FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLIDES EAST. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH LITTLE CAPE FRIDAY
NIGHT HAVE JUST GONE WITH SHOWERS. CAPE INCREASES
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDER SATURDAY. WITH WEAKENING SYSTEM AND SCATTERED NATURE OF
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CHANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER MAV NUMBER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN...ALL GUIDANCE NUMBERS SIMILAR.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS ALL SIMILAR WITH COLD FROPA SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
SHARPENING AND CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK ON
SUN. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MIDWEEK. 12Z GFS/00Z EC KEEP IT FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT IT
WOULD NOT CAUSE ANY UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...BUT THE 06Z
GFS WAS FURTHER WEST. WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH WED...BUT WILL NEED
TO MONITOR TRENDS OF THIS CLOSED OFFSHORE SYSTEM.
CHC SHOWERS/TSTMS SAT NIGHT. COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY SUN MORNING WITH ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CALM TO L/V WINDS IN PLACE THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. AS HIGH PRES
CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA SLIDES EAST...WINDS WILL TAKE ON A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING...THEN SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH HIGH PRES STILL NEAR THE REGION TONIGHT...L/V WINDS EXPECTED
AFTER 00-02Z FRI.
VFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH A BKN DECK AT ABOUT 200-250 KFT. NORTHERN
TERMINALS...SUCH AS KSWF/KHPN...WILL HAVE A MID DECK AT ABOUT 10
KFT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP DRY WX WITH VFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER
THE TERMINALS THROUGH FRI. POSSIBLE SUB-VFR SAT AS HIGH PRES MOVES
OFFSHORE AND A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR LIKELY ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
HIGH PRES OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY...AND EASTERLY
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AROUND 10 KT. COMBINED WITH SE SWELLS...
SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BE BUILDING TO 4 FT LATER TODAY BEFORE
SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT AS WINDS DECREASE TO 5-10 KT.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING NORTHERLY BY SUN. EXPECT GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE WATERS
BEHIND THE FRONT SUN AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON MON
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE NEAR NOVA SCOTIA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SCATTERED RAINFALL
OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY AGAIN SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK. NO HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...AL
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...MPS
HYDROLOGY...MET
