000
FXUS61 KBOX 200157
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 PM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT THEN A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY SOME LIGHT
SPOTTY RAIN SUMDAY. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD
OF RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
JUST A FEW CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
INTERIOR...OTHERWISE MOCLEAR SKIES. LOWERED MINS A FEW DEGREES AS
DRY AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPS
ALREADY DOWN TO LOWER 40S IN SOME OF THE COLDER SPOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENG DURING SAT LIKELY
REACHING N ZONES LATE IN THE DAY. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY WITH DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEST WINDS BEHIND THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ARE EXPECTED SAT SO ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS AND COASTAL PLAIN. COOLER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY OVER NW HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THERE IS SOME 850 MB
COOLING IN THE AFTERNOON. ALSO COOLER ALONG THE S COAST WHERE THERE
WILL BE A SW COMPONENT TO THE WIND.
EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE MAINLY DRY WITH CLOUDS BUILDING IN. THERE
ARE LOW POPS INDICATED IN THE GFS AND TO AN EXTENT THE SREF. WHILE WE
EXPECT SATURDAY NIGHT TO BE MOSTLY DRY...HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GFS/SREF SOLUTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE WEATHER THEME
REMAINING - COOLER TEMPS SUNDAY ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN /POTENTIALLY HEAVY/ EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DRY WEATHER WITH AT LEAST SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. 12Z ECMWF HAS TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND ALSO SLOWER WITH PRECIP POSSIBLY PERSISTING INTO WED.
12Z GEFS/GFF AND GGEM ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT 12Z UKMET SUPPORTS
SLOWER 12Z ECMWF. AS FOR THE DAILY DETAILS...
SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTING TO GET HUNG UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST. MODEST LOW LEVEL SOUTHWEST JET OF 30 KT DEVELOPS JUST SOUTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY LATER SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME OVER
RUNNING PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND LATE IN THE DAY. NOT EXPECTING HEAVY RAIN BUT PRECIP COVERAGE
MAY BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO BE A NUSIANCE FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITES.
MON AND TUE...
SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK TO THE MID ATLC COAST BY
TUE AND INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK.
DESPITE THE SOUTHERN STORM TRACK MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW ACROSS ME
AND THE MARITIMES YIELDS A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SOUTHEAST
CANADA WHICH SUPPORTS MODEST ATLC INFLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
ALTHOUGH AMPLITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT COMPARE WITH LAST WEEKS
STORM AS 12Z GEFS ONLY OFFERING 850 AND 925 WIND ANOMALIES AND PWATS
INTO THE REGION OF ONLY +1 TO +2 SD. LAST WEEK WIND ANOMALIES WERE
+5 SD OVER A LARGE AREA! IN ADDITION...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS STORM WHICH WILL LIMIT DURATION OF
EVENT. NEVERTHELESS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
OF ABOUT 1 INCH REGIONWIDE WITH POTENTIAL FOR 2 INCHES ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA. LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE NERFC SUGGEST 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WILL INDUCE RENEWED MINOR RIVER/STREAM FLOODING.
WED/THU/FRI...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE THE NEW 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH MID LEVEL LOW
DEPARTING THE REGION. 12Z GEFS/GFS AND GGEM IS FASTER BUT 12Z UKMET
SUPPORTS THE SLOWER 12Z ECMWF. FOR NOW WE FOLLOWED THE FASTER
GUIDANCE BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO HANG ONTO PRECIP INTO WED.
OTHERWISE DRY AND AT LEAST SEASONABLE TEMPS SHOULD RETURN LATER WED
OR THU. THEN POSSIBLY A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS.
BOSTON/LOGAN...SEA BREEZE HAS ENDED WITH WINDS NOW FROM THE SSW AND
CONTINUING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SAT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUNDAY...LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS IN RAIN
MAY DEVELOP FOR A TIME GENERALLY.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP IN LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST. A PERIOD
OF STRONG NE WINDS OF G35 KT POSSIBLE BOS/HYA/FMH AND ACK.
WED...
LOW CONFIDENCE THAT IFR/MVFR MAY IMPROVE TO VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE ABOUT 10-15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SUN...
WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE.
MON AND TUE...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MON AND ESP MON NIGHT
INTO TUE. LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF NE GALES ALONG WITH LARGE
SEAS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS OF EASTERN MA. POOR VSBY IN
PERIODS OF RAIN.
WED...
NE GALES MAY LINGER INTO EARLY WED AS GALE CENTER TRACKS NEAR
40N/70W THEN ACROSS GEORGES BANK. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE LATER WED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AREA FLOOD WARNING CANCELLED FOR ESSEX...BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH
COUNTIES FOR THE IPSWICH RIVER AND TAUNTON RIVERS.
A FEW OF THE MAIN STEM RIVERS IN NE MA WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD THROUGH
AT LEAST SAT. THE CHARLES RIVER AT DOVER AND CONCORD RIVER AT
LOWELL WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PLEASE SEE FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE SPECIFIC
INFORMATION ABOUT THE STATUS OF INDIVIDUAL RIVERS.
&&
.CLIMATE...
NEW RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON FOR BDL-73 AND PVD-69. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR 3/19 ARE ONLY 49! DESPITE UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPS
AGAIN TOMORROW NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT PERFORMANCE AS RECORD MAXES SAT
ARE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SET BACK IN 1945.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NOCERA/RLG
NEAR TERM...KJC/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...NOCERA/RLG
MARINE...NOCERA/RLG
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...
