000
FXUS65 KVEF 172211
AFDVEF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
310 PM PDT WED MAR 17 2010
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TONIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
PEAK ON THURSDAY THEN BE COOLER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE IS
SHIFTING EAST OVER THE FOUR CORNER STATES THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SO FAR...TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING ZERO TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY. THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NO IMPACT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE
AND DYNAMICS.
THE SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST FOR US IS PRESENTLY OFF THE NORTHWEST
COAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLIDING THIS WAVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WILL
BE RE-ENERGIZED BY THIS WAVE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS BREAKING OUT ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
CENTRAL NEVADA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES CLARK
COUNTY THURSDAY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL MOVE MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN LINCOLN...NORTHEAST CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY...AND DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY
THROUGH SATURDAY. TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...RIDGING SHOULD BE
ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN STATES BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR CONTINUED
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS. MODELS HAVE COME
MUCH CLOSER TO AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL START KNOCKING
DOWN THE RIDGE MONDAY AS IT COMES INTO THE NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A SPLIT FLOW WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE RATHER WEAK AND
NOT HAVING MUCH INFLUENCE ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER OUR CWA AS IT
PASSES THROUGH...ALTHOUGH THE EURO AND GFS DO SHOW SOME MINOR QPF
AMOUNTS TUESDAY. IT IS THE NORTHERN BRANCH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG
SOUTH OVERHEAD TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY. BETTER QPF
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST WITH THIS BRANCH AND I HAVE INCREASED THE POPS
IN THE NORTH PART OF THE CWA WITH THE HIGHEST IN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ASIDE FROM THIS BELIEVE THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL BE WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH. POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL LIKELY GET INTO THE WINDY CATEGORY LATE TUESDAY BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A GOOD TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WIND ADVISORIES OR GREATER
MAY BE NEED FOR TUESDAY. WITH THE COLD AIR AND NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND
THE FRONT EXPECT THE TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. NOT MUCH EXPECTED IN
THE WAY OF CLOUDS OR WINDS BEFORE THEN. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THURSDAY EVENING THE WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND GUST TO 25 KNOTS. FOR THE 00Z TAF THE SYSTEM IS NOT
MUCH OF A FACTOR.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH CLOUDS AT MOST THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
BRING WITH IT PRIMARILY A WIND SHIFT. WINDS WILL GET GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY GUST TO 30 TO 40 KNOTS IN THE MORE
WIND PRONE AREAS NORTH OF AN INTERSTATE 15 LINE.
&&
.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
PIERCE/JACQUES
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS
