000
FXUS61 KBOX 220048
AFDBOX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
848 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
BEFORE DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. CRYSTAL
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...BUT
IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES MILDER THAN THE LAST TWO NIGHTS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD FALL WELL DOWN INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER
OUTLYING LOCATIONS...WITH SOME UPPER 40S IN SOUTHWEST NH/NORTHWEST
MA. THE URBAN HEAT ISLAND OF BOSTON SHOULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE LOWER 60S. DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT HIGHER TONIGHT...SO EXPECT SOME
ISOLATED POCKETS OF PATCHY GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT... ALLOWING FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OF
THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL.
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE...SO DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
FROM THE CONSENSUS GIVEN THE QUIET WEATHER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A LARGE AMPLITUDE
RIDGE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST
IS A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS REGION SUN NIGHT AND MON.
12Z GFS REMAINS MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FRONT...BUT EVEN IT KEEPS
BEST LIFT AND DEEPER MOISTURE W OF NEW ENGLAND UNTIL SUN NIGHT. THIS
MEANS WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEEKEND...THOUGH HUMIDITY WILL BE
MORE NOTICEABLE SUN AS SW FLOW NUDGES DEWPOINTS INTO MID 60S. THIS
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED WITH LIGHT S/SW FLOW MAY LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS AROUND CAPE COD AND ISLANDS SUN NIGHT AND
MON MORNING.
WE TEMPERED QUICKER GFS SOLUTION WITH EARLIER RUNS OF SREF/GEFS WHICH
SUGGEST FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND SLOW DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS MAY CAUSE CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP MON
AFTERNOON....ESPECIALLY ACROSS RI AND SE MA WHERE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
IS MAXIMIZED. KEPT CHANCE POPS SUN NIGHT AND MON...THOUGH WE WILL
SHOW IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN ZONES MON AFTERNOON AS FRONT
REACHES S COAST.
BEYOND MON...ANOTHER STRETCH OF DRY AND SEASONABLE LATE SUMMER
WEATHER EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE CRESTS OVER REGION. WE ARE STILL NOT
VERY CONFIDENT WITH IDEA OF HAVING SOME SORT OF TROPICAL LOW WELL
OFF SE COAST BRINGING MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA BY MID OR LATE WEEK...AS
THIS IS NOT SUPPORTED BY GEFS. APPEARS TO BE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
EVENT AT THIS TIME.
STAYED CLOSE TO GMOS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOCAL MVFR/IFR DUE
TO PATCHY VALLEY FOG. ONLY TAF SITE THAT WOULD BE IMPACTED WOULD BE
KBAF.
ONLY SOME PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED FRI WITH AS WINDS BECOME S
UNDER 10 KT. SEA BREEZES LIKELY NEAR COAST AFTER 15Z.
FOR KBOS TERMINAL AREA...ONLY ISSUE IS ONSET OF SEA BREEZE FRI WHICH
SHOULD BE AROUND 15Z. SHOULD BE MORE OF A SE /150/ WIND DUE TO A BIT
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT THAN WHAT WE HAD TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
SAT...VFR.
SUN...VFR.
MON...SCT TSTMS WITH MVFR.
TUE...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANQUIL WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FEET.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SAT AND SUN. GENERALLY LIGHT S/SW WINDS AND
FLAT SEAS. PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG POSSIBLE.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL INCREASE SW WINDS A
BIT WHICH IN TURN WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SEAS...ESPECIALLY ON OUTER
WATERS. HOWEVER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 25KT WITH SEAS
NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT OFFSHORE. THIS IS A LITTLE BELOW WAVEWATCH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER WATERS TUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
DIMINISHING SEAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/JWD
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...BELK/JWD
MARINE...BELK/JWD
