000
FXUS62 KMFL 201733
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
WIND DIRECTION ALONG THE E CST WITH SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING WIND
BRIEFLY VEERING TO THE NE BTWN 20Z AND 23Z BUT NOT AT KPBI.
LOOKING AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT APPEARS THAT NW FLOW IS STRONGER
THAN MODELS EARLIER INDICATED AND HAVE INDICATED ONLY A BRIEF WIND
SHIFT BECMG NW AFT 23Z AT LESS THAN 5KT. KAPF WILL REMAIN NW
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 5KT AFT 23Z.
30/KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008/
.DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND...
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CWA IN A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL ALSO MOVE
SOUTHEAST...AND PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY.
A STRENGTHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND, AND ALLOW
FOR BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WORKING INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON
SUNDAY...AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS DEEPEN TO 700 MB. SO WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON
SUNDAY...WHILE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A SECOND
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE CWA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE GOING COOLER AND DRIER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN FROM THE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND. THE SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS
TODAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS OR GREATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...THE GULF STREAM SEAS TO SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND BE BELOW 7 FEET BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE
ATLANTIC SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE
INCREASING TO 6 TO 8 FEET NEAR-SHORE AND UP TO 11 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GULF SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW
6 FEET TODAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
INCREASE TO 6 FEET BY SATURDAY.
SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS THIS MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE LATEST NAM12 AND WRF MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE DRIER AIR
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL WORK DOWN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA TO FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER
MOST OF THE CWA TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT 4 HOURS OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE ONLY AREAS THAT WILL NOT SEE THE 4 HOUR DURATION OF BELOW 35
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY AND
THE SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...DUE TO THE WINDS BEING NORTHWEST
OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY AND NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WATERS WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP THE DEW POINTS UP A
LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN OVER REST OF THE CWA.
SO WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 49 74 57 / - - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 54 76 59 / - - - -
MIAMI 74 54 76 59 / - - - -
NAPLES 71 52 74 53 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-
FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
