000
FXUS62 KILM 201716
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1215 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON AN ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH INTO THE 40S FRIDAY BUT THE WIND CHILL WILL REMAIN IN THE
30S ALL DAY. A HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS
SATURDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN ONLY REACH INTO THE 40S. A MODERATING
TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 9 AM THURSDAY...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDS THROUGH WRN NC AND
IS ABOUT TO PUSH INTO WRN SC. FROPA IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WRLY FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. COLDEST AIR WILL LAG BEHIND
THE FRONT...SO WHILE COLD ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP DURING LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IT WILL BE WEAK INITIALLY.
CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S. VERY LIMITED CHANGES FOR THE MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3AM THU...
AS UNUSUAL AS TUESDAY (TWO DAYS AGO) WAS WITH ITS BLUSTERY WINDS...
HIGHS IN THE 40S...WINTRY-LOOKING CU AND SC...AND THEN PM
FLURRIES...FRIDAY MAY END UP QUITE SIMILAR. 1035MB HIGH BUILDING IN
BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT AS H8 TEMPS PLUMMET TO -10C BY AFTERNOON AND ALL
BUT THE LOWEST 1.5 KFT BELOW FREEZING. MEANWHILE A 30 S-1 VORT MAX
AND 90KT JET STREAK ACRS AT 500MB. MOISTURE WAS SCANT ON TUESDAY BUT
SHOULD BE EVEN MORE ANEMIC ON FRIDAY...PW FALLS TO 0.15 BY EVENING.
SADLY...NO FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST (FOR NOW). THE ACTUAL CAA SHUTS
DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE PARENT SFC RIDGE BUILDS IN...A FAIRLY
TYPICAL SCENARIO IN AN ARCTIC AIR SCENARIO. THIS ENDS UP LEADING TO
THE COLDEST NIGHT AS RADIATIONAL COOLING OFFSETS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT. WHILE NOT IDEAL RAD CONDITIONS DUE TO A LIGHT N WIND
GUIDANCE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW 20S WILL BE WIDESPREAD
WITH TEENS POSSIBLE INLAND AND CERTAINLY IN OUR CHILLY SECTIONS OF
PENDER AND BRUNSWICK COUNTY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ENTIRE COLUMN BELOW FREEZING EXCEPT FOR THE SFC
LAYER. HIGHS WILL AGAIN REMAIN STUCK IN THE 40S. AS WINDS
DIMINISH...ESP LATE IN THE DAY...SATURDAY WILL NOT HAVE QUITE THE
BITING COLD FEEL AS FRIDAY. WEAK WAA OVER A SFC-BASED INVERSION
SATURDAY NIGHT AND LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR FREEZING SC COAST TO
MID 20S MOST INLAND LOCALES.
RECORD LOWS FOR NOV 22 THAT MAY BE CHALLENGED:
ILM-24-1937
CRE-24-1951
FLO-20-2000
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3AM THU...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. WITH H8 TEMPS BARELY ABOVE ZERO AND SHALLOW
MIXING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S EXPECTED. BY MONDAY THE
HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE AND WEAK WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT BEING DRIVEN BY A POTENT UPPER WAVE CRASHING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. TIMING IS UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO THIS BOUNDARY
LOCALLY...COULD BE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. WITH LACKLUSTER MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT POPS DONT SEEM TO GET MUCH ABOVE SCHC/CHC
THRESHOLDS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S MONDAY WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY WARMER
CONSIDERING THE PRECEDING DAYS BUT THIS IS STILL A CATEGORY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. THE UPPER TROUGH CUTS OFF SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. THIS WILL KEEP COLD
ADVECTION AND PROBABLY DRY DOWNSLOPING FLOW INTO THE CAROLINAS. A
FEW IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME SHORTWAVES WILL BRING BOUTS OF PARTLY CLOUDY
PERIODS. THE LACK OF A GOOD ARCTIC CONNECTION WILL BRING COLD BUT
NOT THE RECENTLY SEEN EXTREME CHILL..HIGHS IN THE MID 50S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW 30S/UPPER 30S SC COAST.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS AT 18Z UNDER CLEAR SKIES. WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT FLO/LBT WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THESE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. BY 23Z WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE ILM/LBT
TERMINALS 02-03Z AND 03Z-05Z AT THE FLO/MYR/CRE TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH...BUT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ONLY
EXPECTING WIND SPEEDS OF 2-5 KNOTS DURING THE WIND SHIFT. BROKEN MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP A FEW HOURS AFTER FROPA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 5-6K AFTER 08Z
AT FLO/LBT AND 12Z-13Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. AFTER 13Z-14Z NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOWER CLOUD DECK
WILL BECOME SCATTERED 15Z-18Z.
OUTLOOK THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 9 AM THURSDAY...WRLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT WILL BECOME NW
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AFTER FROPA. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KT LATER TONIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP. INCREASE IN SPEEDS
WILL PUSH SEAS FROM 1 TO 3 FT TO 2 TO 4 FEET LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM/FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3AM THU...
ARCTIC COLD SURGE GETS UNDERWAY IN EARNEST ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE NOT
IN AGREEMENT AS TO WHETHER OR NOT SCA WINDS WILL ACHIEVED.
INTERESTINGLY THE WRF HAS LOWER SFC WIND SPEEDS COMPARED TO THE GFS
DESPITE HAVING SIMILAR LL JET SPEEDS AT 925MB. WILL BLEND WITH A
SLIGHT EMPHASIS ON THE HIGHER GFS SPEEDS. MOST OF THE SCA WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE CONFINED TO FRYING PAN SHOALS AREA. SINCE THIS IS
STILL 24+ HOURS OFF AND CONFIDENCE IS A LITTLE LOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
HEADLINES FOR NOW. WIND DIRECTION STAYS FAIRLY CONSTANT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PD BUT WITH DECREASING SPEEDS AS THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH NEARS. SEAS WILL SHOW A SLOW DECLINING TREND THEN.
LONG TERM/SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3AM THU... PROBABLY SOME OF THE LIGHTEST WINDS EXPERIENCED
IN A WHILE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL REDUCE THE GRADIENT EARLY IN THE DAY WITH
A DECLINE IN SEAS TO FOLLOW. AS THE HIGH PROGRESSES OFFSHORE
MONDAY FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS WILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE VEERING TO
ONSHORE AND THEN A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR
