000
FXUS64 KHUN 200745
AFDHUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
245 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010
.DISCUSSION...FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING AS MORE
ACTIVE/WET WX PREPARES TO SWEEP THROUGH THE TN VALLEY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. NICE AND TRANQUIL SPRING-LIKE WX CONDITIONS WHICH
GREETED THE TN VALLEY YESTERDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE SE REGION
THE PAST DAY OR SO WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EWD TOWARD THE SRN ATLANTIC
BASIN TODAY WITH RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING...THEREBY HELPING TO USHER
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...WEAK RIDGING OVER
THE SE REGION WILL ALSO GIVE WAY TO A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS. THIS FEATURE IS XPCTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
AS IT BEGINS TO SWING EWD THROUGH THE TN AND OH VALLEYS ON SUN.
WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE W HEADING
INTO SUN...A COLD FRONT AT THE SFC WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SWEEP THROUGH
THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS BEGINNING IN THE LATE SAT/EARLY SUN TIME
FRAME. THE LATEST MODEL SUITES ARE DEVELOPING SOME KIND OF A WAVE OR
CLOSED LOW ALONG THE SFC FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE
AREA...PRETTY MUCH ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW. THE MODELS
LOOK TO BE A TAD BIT SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
SE REGION...AND LIKEWISE THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP. THIS COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE SFC WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. IN ANY CASE...A
LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS...LOOKS TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
TN VALLEY FROM W TO E STARTING WITH THE EARLY MORNING HRS SUN...AND
THEN CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HRS. THE LACK
OF ANY SFC BASED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE MORE OR LESS ISOLATED/ELEVATED TSTMS. WITH THE UPPER LOW
HOWEVER IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE SFC FRONT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD VERY WELL PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL. SHEAR PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST
SOME GUSTY/STRONG WINDS COULD POSSIBLY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...IF THE
WINDS ARE ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE MORE STABLE SFC LAYER.
HEADING INTO SUN NIGHT AND EARLY MON...WITH THE UPPER LOW ROTATING
EWD THROUGH THE AREA...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/OR MAYBE EVEN SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. NO ACCUMULATION HOWEVER IS XPCTED
GIVEN THE SATURATED/WARM SFC. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE SE
REGION TUE AND WED WITH SPRING-LIKE WX CONDITIONS AGAIN DEVELOPING.
ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY IS THEN XPCTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
THU AND FRI WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE 72 52 60 35 50 / 10 60 90 40 30
SHOALS 72 52 58 36 50 / 10 80 90 40 30
VINEMONT 71 52 59 35 50 / 10 70 90 40 30
FAYETTEVILLE 70 51 58 34 48 / 10 60 90 40 40
ALBERTVILLE 71 53 61 37 50 / 10 50 90 40 30
FORT PAYNE 71 51 61 35 49 / 10 30 90 40 40
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
09
