000
FXUS65 KGJT 172155
AFDGJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
354 PM MDT WED MAR 17 2010
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
RIDGE AXIS IS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE RIDGE GETS FLATTENED TONIGHT THEN PUSHED
EAST ON THURSDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPS IN FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS TODAY AND BREEZY SW-W FLOW THURSDAY
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
MODELS CONTINUE A TREND OF AN OPEN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY
EVENING...THEN WEAKENS AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF I-70 OVERNIGHT. 100KT
JET NOSE DROPS INTO NE UTAH EARLY FRIDAY PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ACROSS THE NORTH. THE 18Z RUN BRUSHED THE NW CO MTNS WITH THE
-30C COLD CORE WITH 700MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -10C. NORTHEAST FLOW ON
FRIDAY WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS BUT INSTABILITY
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO FRI NITE
ALONG WITH MODERATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES WILL
ALLOW ACCUMULATING SNOW TO CONTINUE OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL MTNS
NEAR THE DIVIDE...DECREASING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN COORDINATION
WITH THE SHORT TERM FCSTR RAISED POPS OVER THE N TO COINCIDE WITH
WINTER HILITES WHICH EXTEND THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER H7 EASTERLY
FLOW IS CAUSING BOTH OF US SOME ANXIETY. BY SATURDAY SHOWERS WILL
HAVE TAPERED OFF TO THE ISOLATED CATEGORY...AND THESE WILL MOSTLY
BE CONFINED TO THE NRN AND CNTRL MTNS. IN THE MEAN TIME A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST OVER THE GRT BASIN.
THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWRD OVER OUR REGION SUNDAY BRINGING DRY MILD
CONDITIONS...BUT THE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE
ENTERING THE NW STATES. MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE
RIDGE GETS FLATTENED AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS. THE EC IS MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION WITH THE NEXT WX SYSTEM. EITHER
WAY BOTH INDICATE DRY MILD CONDITIONS. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
TUESDAY AND HAVE RAISED POPS TO THE SCATTERED CATEGORY OVER THE
MTNS. THIS STORM HANGS AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN BEGINS TO EXIT
THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH LITTLE RECOVERY INDICATED FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE BUILDING
RIDGE WILL BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS TOWARD NORMAL BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE COOLING COMES WITH THE NEXT STORM TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TONIGHT. THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
BREEZY SOUTHWEST PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-
70 CORRIDOR. IN SPITE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER STORM WARNING THURSDAY 6 PM MDT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
6 AM FOR ZONES 4/10/13.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 3/9/12/17/18.
UT...WINTER STORM WARNING THURSDAY 6 PM MDT THROUGH FRIDAY 6 PM FOR
ZONE 23.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM....MC
AVIATION.....MC
