000
FXUS64 KOUN 112001
AFDOUN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
301 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2008
.DISCUSSION...
PRECIP INCREASING OVER HIGH PLAINS AND MOVING/SPREADING NNE AS
TROPICAL MOIST PLUME FROM NORBERT IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW OVER UT. EASTWARD PROGRESS OF RAIN INTO THE CWA LIKELY TO
BE SLOW AS UPPER LOW MOVES LITTLE AND SFC FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL
PLAINS LIFTS NW AWAY FROM THE AREA. WESTERN SYSTEM WILL SPLIT...
WITH NORTHERN PART MOVING OUT INTO N PLAINS AND SUPPORTING A S-WARD
PUSH ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRONT ON MONDAY. BUT A SIZEABLE PART OF
THE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO HANG BACK OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA BEFORE
MOVING OUT INTO CENTRAL PLAINS AND OPENING UP TUE NIGH-WED. BEST
RAIN CHANCES NOW APPEAR TO BE WITH AND AHEAD OF THE LATTER SYSTEM
ACROSS NW/N OK - N/NW OF THE FRONT - MON INTO TUE. BECAUSE OF THE
HANG-BACK PART OF THE SYSTEM THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
FRONTAL LOCATION MON INTO TUE. GIVEN THE VERY COOL/COLD CONDITIONS
NOW BEING OBSERVED ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY... AND MODEL
INDICATIONS OF A CONTINUING SHARP THERMAL GRADIENT WITH THE FRONT AS
IT MOVES INTO THE AREA... THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE BUST POTENTIAL
ON TEMPS. CLOUDS/PRECIP AND COLD AIR MAY KEEP AREAS WELL NW OF
THE FRONT IN THE 40S WHILE AREAS JUST SE OF THE BOUNDARY MAY
REACH THE 80S. INITIAL PLAN WAS TO USE THE NAM12 GRIDS TO DEPICT
THE SHARP WIND SHIFT AND ASSOCIATED THERMAL GRADIENT... BUT OTHER
MODELS ARE NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AND IN FACT THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS
NOW HOLD THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL OK MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE. THUS
HAVE GONE BACK TO MAINLY THE GFS AND ASSOCIATED MOS FOR
WINDS/TEMPS DURING THESE PERIODS.
FORECAST BEYOND MIDWEEK IS ESSENTIALLY A CONTINUATION OF WHAT WE
HAVE HAD GOING. KEPT LOW POPS IN THE E/S INTO WED AS THE REST OF THE
WESTERN SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH... THEN DRY AS LARGE-SCALE RIDGING SETS
UP OVER EITHER THE ROCKIES /ECMWF AND UKMET/ OR A BROAD RIDGE OVER
THE PLAINS /GFS AND DGEX/. ECMWF STILL INDICATES A STRONGER
REINFORCEMENT OF COOL AIR AROUND THU NIGHT-FRI SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY ON FRI.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 80 66 80 / 10 10 10 30
HOBART OK 65 80 67 78 / 20 20 20 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 64 83 66 79 / 0 10 10 10
GAGE OK 64 76 64 66 / 50 50 70 70
PONCA CITY OK 65 82 64 80 / 0 20 20 50
DURANT OK 65 85 64 83 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/24
