000
FXUS63 KDTX 191038
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
638 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010
.AVIATION...
THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL AGAIN ALLOW WINDS TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT
RANGE UNDER THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS SE MI BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z...BRINGING AN ABRUPT WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND AN OVC DECK AROUND 6K FT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010
SHORT TERM...TODAY
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN IS IN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF WARM WEATHER AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING WARM 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF +4 TO
+6 CELSIUS WITH HIGHS AGAIN FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8 TO 10 C/KM IN THE
LOWEST 825 MB WINDS WILL AGAIN BE GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA IN THIS DEEP
MIXING LAYER WITH WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA...THE WEATHER
WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS THE FRONT REACHES NORTHERN
MICHIGAN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM...
A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT BOUNCING BACK EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
ELONGATED UPPER WAVE TRACKING THROUGH ONTARIO AT THE PRESENT TIME.
SECONDARY TROUGH/UPPER WAVE FOLLOWING IN BEHIND WILL REALLY GIVE THE
COLD FRONT A PUSH SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN LATE
TONIGHT/SATURDAY...AS SFC/925/850 MB FRONTAL ZONES SEEN SLIDING
SOUTH OF THE STATE....BUT MID LEVEL FGEN LINGERS. 00Z NAM/GFS
THERMAL PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW (EXCEPT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH)...BUT
QPF WILL BE LIGHT (TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS)...AS THE CWA STRUGGLES
TO GET INTO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE FORCING. SO...WITH MARGINAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAIRLY LIGHT SNOWFALL RATES...ANY ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE A STRUGGLE WITH IMPACTS ON THE ROADS MINIMAL DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS WITH THE SOUTHERN WAVE CUTTING OFF OVER THE
WESTERN GULF COAST STATES...WITH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ON THE DOWNWIND
CONFLUENT SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON SUNDAY...AND IT LOOKS
LIKE WE COULD END UP BEING DRY (WHICH THE 12Z EUROPEAN LATCHED ONTO
AND THE 00Z RUN CONTINUES). THE AIRMASS ALSO MODIFIES DURING THE
DAY...AS WE ARE CAUGHT IN BETWEEN A COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND THE WESTERN GULF COAST SYSTEM. THUS...IF
THE SOUTHERN WAVE IS BOOTED OFF/PULLED TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY
NIGHT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...AS 850 MB
TEMPS RISE BETWEEN 1-4 C AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL HAVE TO COME DOWN
FROM THE HIGHS IN THE MID 40S.
MONDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL BE AND WHETHER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE
DEFORMATION ZONE...WHICH REMAINS POSSIBLE...PER 00Z CANADIAN.
WITH THE POOR HANDLING/TRACK RECORD WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM BY
THE MODELS...WILL PLAY THE MIDDLE GROUND AND CALL FOR MID 40S FOR
HIGHS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN (PER INHERITED FORECAST).
RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT A
GOOD REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WITH SUNSHINE...AND WILL UP
MAXES TO AROUND 50 DEGREES....WHICH MAY BE VERY CONSERVATIVE (10
DEGREES) IF THE EUROPEAN ENDS UP BEING RIGHT...AS 850 MB TEMPS SEEN
CLIMBING TO 6 C.
MARINE...
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER LAKE HURON LATE TODAY...THEN OVER LAKE
ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THEN STALLS SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN STATE LINE. LOW PRESSURE LIFTING
UP THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AND DRAW COLDER AIR DOWN INTO THE REGION FROM CANADA. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW...AND STRENGTHEN WINDS ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO REACH SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS ALONG THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 30 KNOTS OVER
THE LAKE HURON OPEN WATERS.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....KURIMSKI
SHORT TERM...KURIMSKI
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
