000
FXUS62 KMFL 072320
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
720 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT
WIND FLOW LESS THAN 5 KT AFT 01Z THIS EVENING WITH ALL CONVECTION
REMAINING OVER INTERIOR S FLA. WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ON FRIDAY
AND A SEA BREEZE IS UNLIKELY ON THE E CST WITH SCT CONVECTION
DEVELOPING AFT 15Z INTERIOR SECTIONS THEN MOVING TOWARDS THE E
CST. HOWEVER, NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AND HAVE ONLY
PLACED VCTS IN THE E CST TERMINALS.
30/KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM EDT THU AUG 7 2008/
..EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD SEE NEAR RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY FOLLOWED
BY WETTER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...
DISCUSSION...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT KEEPING THE STEERING
FLOW LIGHT OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. BOTH THE EAST
AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WERE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SEA
BREEZES. THE SEA BREEZES SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AS THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. SO
HAVE KEPT THE SCATTERED POPS FOR THE INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE GOING ISOLATED FOR THE EVENING HOURS. FOR THE METRO
AREAS...HAVE KEPT ISOLATED POPS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS THIS
WEEKEND...AS THE UNUSUALLY DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE WEAK TROPICAL
WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER
THE CWA THIS WEEKEND FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...THE DRIER AIR ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND THE DRIER AIR OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL BE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SO POPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 30 TO 4O
PERCENT RANGE...WHILE THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 40 TO 50 PERCENT
RANGE.
WITH THE SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AND THE LOWER POPS ON FRIDAY...THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD GET CLOSE
TO THE RECORD HIGHS WHICH ARE:
FORECAST HIGH RECORD HIGHS
MIA 94 95 - 1956
FLL 93 97 - 1956
PBI 94 96 - 1970
MBF 92 93 - 1983
SO WILL MENTION NEAR RECORD HIGHS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR FRIDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS EARLY
TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE STALLING OUT. THEREFORE...THE
STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS EACH DAY.
THE DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BREAK DOWN LATE NEXT
WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE BACK NORTH
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO
SHIFT BACK TO A SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS BELOW 10 KNOTS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE SEAS BELOW 2 FEET THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO
BOATING SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE CRITICAL VALUE OF 35
PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THEY COULD
FALL DOWN INTO THE 40S THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SO AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE ANY PROBLEMS
WITH THE FIRE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 94 74 93 / 20 40 20 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 93 76 92 / 20 40 20 50
MIAMI 79 94 77 93 / 20 40 20 50
NAPLES 77 90 77 89 / 20 30 20 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
