000
FXUS62 KMFL 172010
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
410 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2008
...DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE...
...RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE EAST COAST AGAIN ON SUNDAY...
.DISCUSSION...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE DENSE SMOKE POTENTIAL
AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. RADARS SHOW 2 FIRES CONTINUING...ONE
OVER SW LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE OTHER OVER THE EVERGLADES. KAMX
REALLY SHOWS THE FIRE WELL WITH THE HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES MOVING
OVER KROME AVE. MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMIAMI TRAIL. KTMB VIS HAS BEEN
FALLING ALL AFTERNOON AND IS NOW DOWN TO 2SM. NO LUCK WITH CALLS
TO SEE WHAT THE VISIBILITY IS RIGHT NOW ALONG KROME AVE...BUT IT
LIKELY IS LESS THAN A MILE AND COULD EVEN BE DOWN TO A QUARTER OF
A MILE IN DENSE SMOKE. THE PATTERN TONIGHT FAVORS SMOKE CONTINUING
ACROSS BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...AND BECOMING DENSE ESPECIALLY
OVER INLAND AREAS AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE FT. LAUDERDALE
AND MIAMI METRO AREAS. AS SUCH...PUT UP A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. DECIDED TO START IT RIGHT NOW AS VISIBILITY IS
UNKNOWN ALONG KROME...BUT KAMX REFLECTIVITY DATA AND KTMB OB
SUGGESTS THAT DENSE SMOKE IS POSSIBLY OCCURRING THERE RIGHT NOW
EVEN DESPITE THE DAYTIME MIXING. THEREFORE...MADE THE DENSE SMOKE
ADVISORY EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH 10 AM EDT
SUNDAY. FURTHER NORTH...THE FIRE CONTINUES ON THE SW SIDE OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. KPBI RADAR SHOWS THE SMOKE PLUME MOVING ALMOST DUE
EAST WITH PATCHY SMOKE LIKELY AFFECTING WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE ACROSS THE LAKE AREA
OVERNIGHT...AND SO DENSE SMOKE IN PATCHES IS POSSIBLE ALONG ANY
PORTION OF THE LAKESHORE ACROSS GLADES...HENDRY...AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...TO GET THE WORD OUT ISSUED THE
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY BUT NOT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 11 PM EDT TONIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEATHER...DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE
SOARED INTO THE 90S EAST COAST WITH MIA BREAKING THE RECORD MAX
TEMP FOR THIS DATE...REACHING 94 DEGREES (PREVIOUS RECORD WAS 93
IN 1985).
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO CENTRAL FL WILL STALL THERE BUT
WILL GET A PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY...WHAT IS LEFT
OF IT...AS A SHORTWAVE KICKS OUT FROM TX. IN THE MEANTIME...DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HOT TEMPS EAST COAST. A FEW RECORD
HIGHS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN IS ON MONDAY...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW RATHER DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...SO AM NOT
VERY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT THE HIGHER GFS/NAM POPS. THUS...AM SLIGHTLY
LOWER FOR MONDAY. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN...SO NO BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS SEEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
IT SURE HAS BEEN DRY RECENTLY. HERE ARE THE RAIN STATS SINCE APRIL
10TH AT SELECTED SITES:
PBI...35" FLL...14" MIA....35" APF....07"
&&
.AVIATION...PATCHY SMOKE WITH VISIBILITIES OF A
QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE EARLY MORNING NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.
&&
.MARINE...NO HEADLINES NEEDED AS WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT LESS THAN
15 KT WITH SEAS OF LESS THAN 4 FT THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RH`S HAVE DROPPED BELOW 35 PERCENT AT A FEW EAST
COAST SITES...WITH THE LOWEST RIGHT NOW AT FT. LAUDERDALE WHERE
IT IS 94/58...WITH AN RH OF 30 PERCENT. ALL OTHER SITES ARE ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS IN PLACE FOR TOMORROW. I
USED THE NAM12 DEWPOINTS...EVEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY LOWER AS VERY
STRONG HEATING SHOULD AGAIN LOWER DEWPOINTS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
THAN GFS/NAMMOS. THIS PUTS RH`S IN THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE EASTERN
AREAS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH WINDS HIGHER BY A FEW MPH. SO ALTHOUGH
RED FLAG CRITERIA IS NOT FORECASTED RIGHT NOW...IT LOOKS VERY
CLOSE SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
PREVAIL THIS UPCOMING WEEK...SO NO WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
IS IN SIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 94 72 92 / 10 10 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 74 95 75 94 / - - 10 20
MIAMI 76 95 75 94 / - - 10 20
NAPLES 74 86 75 86 / - 10 10 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ071-FLZ072-
FLZ073-FLZ074.
DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...57/DG
AVIATION...04/AT
