000
FXUS66 KMFR 172156
AFDMFR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
256 PM PDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO
BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF COASTAL STRATUS. LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED
ONSHORE BUT THE MARINE LAYER IS VERY SHALLOW. I HAVE SCALED BACK
THE ARRIVAL OF FOG AND STRATUS UNTIL AFTER 06Z/11 PM TONIGHT.
THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY IS CONSISTENT WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN STORE FOR THE COAST AND COOLER READINGS BUT
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL INLAND. A MORE ABRUPT CHANGE TUESDAY.
ON TUESDAY A COLD FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO SOUTHWEST OREGON AND
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE WHOLE REGION. THIS USHERS
IN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY PERIOD WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES OUR REGION WITH
BELOW NORMAL 500MB HEIGHTS. I HAVE MAINTAINED WEDNESDAY POPS AT 10
PERCENT OR LESS BUT THESE MAY BE RAISED IF THE ECMWF AND FUTURE
GFS MODEL RUNS FOLLOW THE LEAD OF THE 12Z GFS WHICH DEPICTS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH COULD PROVIDE LIGHT RAIN
TO SOUTHWEST OREGON.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OUR AREA LIES BETWIXT A DEEP TROUGH ROUGHLY
ALONG 115W AND A STRONG RIDGE ABOUT 140W. THE RESULT KEEPS US IN
NORTHERLY FLOW WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. MO
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AREAS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
DW
