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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 252022
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 
320 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA 
BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH 700 MB DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENESIS 
RESPONSE. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA FROM NORTH 
TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALREADY SEEING SUNSHINE 
IN THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AS DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE 
REGION. 

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING NORTH OF LAKE 
SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...KEEPING THE DRIER FLOW OF AIR INTO THE 
REGION. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED. COOL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO 
THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY INTO THE 
MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WELL INLAND. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP COOLER 40S 
NEAR THE LAKE.

.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - HIGH.

WEAK PUSH OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MID LEVEL 
MOISTURE MAY BRING SCT TO BRIEFLY BKN CLOUDS TO ERN CWA SUN NGT AS 
LOBE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ROTATES AROUND ERN CONUS UPPER LOW.  ANY 
PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE TO REMAIN TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...HIGH 
PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT 
AND MONDAY AS LARGE UPPER LOW OVER GTLAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS 
BEGINS TO SHRINK AND SPIN OUT INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC.  LIGHTER 
WINDS AND NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WL RESULT IN WINDS 
REMAINING MOSTLY ONSHORE DURING THE DAYTIME NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.  
MODIS IMAGERY FROM FRIDAY REVEALED LAKE SEA SURFACE TEMP IN THE LOW 
40S.  LAKESHORE AREAS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S 
ON MONDAY BUT GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON TUESDAY DUE TO LIGHTER SFC 
WINDS...BEGINNING THE DAY NORTHWEST BEFORE VEERING ONSHORE. SUNSHINE 
AND WARMING LOW LEVEL TEMPS WILL ALLOW INLAND LOCATIONS TO REACH THE 
60S BOTH DAYS...PERHAPS NEARING 70 IN THE WEST ON TUESDAY.  

KEEPING AN EYE ON APPROACHING WEAK TROF IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  THIS 
TROF WILL AFFECT NORTHWEST WI ON TUESDAY AND SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS WL 
LIKELY SPREAD INTO SRN WI LATER IN THE DAY FROM THIS FEATURE.  
QUESTIONABLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING SO WL CONTINUE DRY 
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE - MEDIUM.

LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE ECMWF SHOW CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN CARRYING 
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROF ACROSS WI TUE AND WED.  ALL MEDIUM RANGE 
GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME FORM OF NORTHWEST FLOW SHORT WAVE MOVING 
ACROSS WI DURING THIS PERIOD.  WHILE GFS MUCH WEAKER WITH THIS 
FEATURE AND GEM KEEPS UPPER CIRCULATION SLIDING SOUTH INTO IA...ONLY 
ECMWF SHOWS THIS SYSTEM STRENGTHENING OVER THE LAKE MI AREA TUE NGT 
INTO WED.  NOT READY TO BUY INTO THIS SCENARIO AS ECMWF ALSO SHOWS 
UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE KICKER ALREADY MOVING ACROSS SRN CAN NORTH OF 
THE PLAINS ON WED.  ALSO...GEM...GFS AND DGEX SHOWING MORE 
PROGRESSIVE...WEAKER SITUATION.  WL PROBABLY KEEP VERY SMALL CHANCES 
FOR -SHRA IN PARTS OF THE AREA FOR TUE NGT/WED TO ACKNOWLEDGE WEAK 
TROF PASSAGE.  SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES TO BOTTLE UP DEEPER MOISTURE 
WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONUS.  

THIS WEAK TROF DOES EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH SRN STREAM SYSTEM TO 
RESULT IN AMPLIFYING LONG WAVE TROF OVER ERN CONUS ON THU AND FRI.  
HOWEVER DESCREPANCY REMAINS AS SLOW GFS SHOWS DEEPENING UPPER LOW 
OVER ERN GTLAKES AND NORTHEAST CONUS DURING THIS PERIOD WHILE ECMWF 
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND TAKES SOUTHEAST CONUS LOW INTO WRN ATLANTIC BY 
FRI.  THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS HAVE A DIRECT AFFECT ON EXPECTED 
TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS.  MORE 
AMPLIFIED GFS SOLUTION KEEPS DEEPER RIDGING AND COLDER NORTHWEST 
FLOW LINGERING LONGER ACROSS WRN GTLAKES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  MORE 
PROGRESSIVE ECMWF SHOWS UPSTREAM RIDGING BREAKING DOWN FASTER...WITH 
MILDER MORE ZONAL FLOW SETTLING INTO WI ON SAT...WHILE GFS REMAINS 
COOLER.  DGEX AND WPC LEANING TOWARD MODEL BLEND.  EITHER 
WAY...WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.  APPROACHING 
UPSTREAM TROF AND INCREASING MOISTURE MAY EVENTUALLY RETURN THUNDER 
TO THE AREA AROUND MONDAY...MAY 4TH. CPC 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE 
OUTLOOK HAS GREATER LIKLIHOOD FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SPREADING INTO 
WI FOR THE PERIOD MAY 2-8. 

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF KENOSHA BY LATE 
AFTERNOON...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE 
REGION. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL SUNSET...WITH VFR 
CATEGORY CEILINGS.

NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...AS 
HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHEAST WINDS AT 1500 
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL MAY LINGER AROUND 30 KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT NOT 
ENOUGH OF A WIND SPEED DIFFERENCE FROM THE SURFACE TO REQUIRE LOW 
LEVEL WIND SHEAR MENTION IN TAFS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY 
AT THE EASTERN SITES AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES 
EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOME MIXING NEAR THE SHORELINE RESULTING 
IN NORTHEAST GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE AT MARINE OBSERVATION 
SITES. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING SUBSIDES. 

THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET FOR MOST 
OF TONIGHT. WAVES SHOULD SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT...PERHAPS A COUPLE 
HOURS EARLIER THAN THE 12Z EXPIRATION TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT 
ADVISORY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE NEED FOR AN EARLIER ENDING 
TIME.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...  

WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LMZ643>646 UNTIL 12Z/26. 
 
$$ 
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY/AVIATION/MARINE...WOOD
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MBK