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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 300851
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
351 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. 

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY WILL TRACK MAINLY 
SOUTH OF WI TODAY WITH ONLY AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS. 
LGT SWLY WINDS AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED BUT THE CLOUDS 
WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME. STILL EXPECT LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS. 

FOR TNT...A 110 KT NLY JET WILL DIVE SWD OVER THE UPPER MS RIVER 
VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED DIGGING UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SWD 
ACROSS ERN WI LATE TNT INTO FRI AM. THE COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR 
BEFOREHAND DURING THIS EVENING AS THE SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NRN 
GREAT LAKES. LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL 
LIKELY GENERATE AT LEAST SCT SHOWERS. THEN MAINLY AFTER 09Z AN AREA 
OF LGT RAIN AND SNOW IS POSSIBLE AND WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS ERN WI 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON 
WHETHER THE PCPN WILL OCCUR SINCE THE AREA IS ON THE WRN FRINGES OF 
LIFT AND MODEL QPF. THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP 
ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...THUS WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH ARE 
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE. 

FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

THE HIGHEST WINDS WILL SLAM INTO SOUTHEAST WI RIGHT AROUND 12Z/ 7AM 
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS WHEN THE COMPACT UPPER LOW DROPS OVER THE 
REGION AND AN AREA OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS AND STRONG UPWARD 
MOTION SLIDE DOWN THE SHORELINE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. ANY SHOWERS WILL 
BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW BETWEEN 7 AND 10 AM FRIDAY MORNING GIVEN THE 
TEMPERATURE PROFILE COMPLETELY BELOW FREEZING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF 
THE SURFACE. ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATION WOULD BE ON GRASSY AREAS.

WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST WHILE SURFACE WINDS 
WILL GRADUALLY TURN FROM NNW TO NORTH FRIDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL 
MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH IN THE LAKESHORE 
COUNTIES AND 35 MPH INLAND THROUGH MIDDAY. A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE 
EAST HALF OF THE MKX FORECAST AREA WILL STILL NEED TO BE CONSIDERED. 
THE CRITERIA IS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GUSTS TO 45 MPH AND 
HIGHER. AT THIS TIME... THE FORECAST JUST BARELY MEETS THIS CRITERIA 
FOR A FEW LOCATIONS SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEADLINE SINCE IT/S 
MARGINAL. 
 
SYNOPTIC PRECIP WILL END BY 10 AM... BUT LAKE EFFECT RAIN/SNOW 
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SATURDAY 
AS 1000-850MB WINDS TURN NORTHEAST.

I NUDGED THE HIGH TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 FOR 
FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS IN THE MORNING AND 
20S IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE 
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT STRATOCU WITH THE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES 
SEEM PROBABLE. FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE DRY AND LESS WINDY BUT COLD... 
WITH TEMPS QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 30S.  

.LONG TERM...

SATURDAY WILL REMAIN COOL BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AS THE SURFACE HIGH 
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVE OVERHEAD. IT WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP ON 
SUNDAY WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. 

THE ECWMF BRINGS PRECIP INTO SOUTHERN WI EARLIER THAN THE GFS GIVEN 
DIFFERENT STRENGTHS OF AN UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE US/CANADIAN 
BORDER MONDAY AND TUESDAY. KEPT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING THIS 
PERIOD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING A 
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN WI WED INTO THU. 

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY BUT AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP THIS
EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND SCT SHOWERS. AN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW MAY THEN MOVE SOUTH ACROSS ERN WI AROUND
DAYBREAK ON FRI. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED WITH VSBYS OF 2-5SM WITHIN
ANY LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 1 AM 
SATURDAY. NORTHERLY GALES WILL DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD AS LOW 
PRESSURE INTENSIFIES OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND IN THE WAKE OF 
A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE 
NEEDED AFTER THE EXPIRATION OF THE GALE WARNING DUE TO LINGERING 
HIGH WINDS AND WAVES. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR 
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...GEHRING
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MRC