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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 240842
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
342 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. 

WE SHOULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 
ROLL ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD.  DEEP MOISTURE IS PUSHING 
NORTH OUT OF MISSOURI INTO IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE 
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES HAVE REACHED SOUTHERN IOWA AND 
THESE HIGH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF WISCONSIN 
BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS FLUX IN MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR WILL 
RESULT IN THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS 
OVERSPREADING THE AREA THIS MORNING. CAPE VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD 
ARE QUITE LOW...SO THUNDER SHOULDN/T DOMINATE. NEARLY ALL THE MODELS 
KEEP THE BETTER PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST 
AREA...WITH THE EAST STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...AT 
LEAST THROUGH TODAY.  WE COULD SEE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP THIS 
AFTERNOON AFTER THE WARM AND MOIST AIR ADVECTION SURGE LIFTS NORTH. 
ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO COMES IN TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL 
JET FOLLOWED BY A DECENT MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ARRIVING AFTER 
MIDNIGHT.   

WE COULD SEE SOME FOG ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF 
PORT WASHINGTON LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FLOW 
WILL BE OFF THE LAKE AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE 
MOVING. 

MEMORIAL DAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA TONIGHT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MN MONDAY 
MORNING AND UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS 
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES WITH A COUPLED 
UPPER JET STRUCTURE. ANY ONGOING PRECIP WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH 
AND CYCLOGENESIS IN SOUTHERN WI AT 7 AM MONDAY MORNING WILL QUICKLY 
LIFT NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE MORNING. 

THE STRONG SURFACE LOW WITH THE GFS AND NAM MODELS WILL SHIFT FROM 
NW WI TO NORTH CENTRAL WI BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND 
CANADIAN MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW 
WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTH 
ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND THUS WIND SPEEDS. REGARDLESS... EXPECT GUSTY 
SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST WIND 
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER 
WINDS. 

THERE SHOULD BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS A DRY AIR WRAPS INTO SOUTHERN 
WI MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS AND THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE 
TEMPERATURES UP TO AROUND 80 INLAND AND INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE 
LAKESHORE AREAS. YESTERDAY THE MODELS WERE SHOWING HIGHER 
INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... BUT TODAY THE MODELS 
HAVE A VERY WARM LAYER ALOFT THAT PREVENTS THAT INSTABILITY. 

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY EVENING AS A SURFACE 
TROUGH DROPS THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. SPC KEPT MOST OF WI IN THAT 
MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL STALL OVER SOUTHERN WI FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER 
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON 
AND LEAD TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE 
THROUGH SOUTHERN WI. CONDITIONS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SMALL 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON SO STAY TUNED. SPC 
HAS SOUTHEAST WI IN THE MARGINAL AREA FOR SEVERE ON DAY 3.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM. 

THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD SHAPE UP TO BE FAIRLY QUIET. THERE MAY BE A 
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNTIL THE SURFACE TROUGH 
EXITS THE REGION. OTHERWISE... THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF UPPER 
AND SURFACE RIDGING TO ENJOY. TEMPS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL 
NORMAL IN THE 70S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE 
COUNTRY AND SEND ENERGY UP THROUGH WI ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH/ 
BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE WEEK ALL THE WAY THROUGH 
SATURDAY NIGHT. 

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

WE SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. A SURGE OF 
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD RESULT IN A ROUND OF 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING AFTER 12-15Z THIS 
MORNING.  THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 
FEW MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE STORMS TONIGHT. 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. CIGS AND VSBYS MAY 
DROP TO MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AS THE LOWER LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE. 
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS HOWEVER. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS 
THAT MOST PLACES MAY STAY VFR...BUT IT IS NEAR THE THRESHOLD. LOW 
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET 
STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WOULD BE 
PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z MONDAY.  

&&

.MARINE...

LOOK FOR EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO 
TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH 
TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.  FOG WILL LIKELY BE INCREASING 
TONIGHT AS MOISTURE SURGES NORTH INTO THE REGION AND COMBINES WITH 
THE COLD LAKE WATERS. 

WE SHOULD SEE GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY 
NIGHT THAT WILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HAVE DECIDED TO 
GO AHEAD AND HOIST AND ADVISORY FOR THAT PERIOD. WINDS MAY GUST TO 
NEAR 30KTS...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO SHORE.  FOG MAY CONTINUE TO BE A 
THREAT...ESPECIALLY OUT TOWARD OPEN WATER. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR 
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC