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Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS63 KMKX 252039
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
339 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM 
THE PUSH OF DRY AIR HAS BEEN AGGRESSIVE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS DOWN 
INTO THE LOW 30S AND IN SOME CASES MID/UPPER 20S IN THE NW CWA. SO 
WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS DRAWING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN CWA LATER 
TONIGHT...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 30S. STILL EXPECT 
SOME MIXING INTO THE EVENING UNTIL GRADIENT EASES ENOUGH TO ALLOW BETTER 
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS TO SET IN. SO SOME AREAS MAY NEED FURTHER TEMP 
REDUCTION THAT DECOUPLE THE EARLIEST. 

.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH 
SURFACE RIDGE WILL START OFF ACROSS THE CWA AT THE OUTSET AND MAKE A SLOW 
TRANSLATION INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. SO MUCH LIGHTER WIND REGIME. TEMPS STILL 
ON THE MILD SIDE BUT MIXING NOT AS DEEP AND ONSHORE COMPONENT EVOLVING....
SO EXPECT TEMPS A SMIDGE COOLER....BUT STILL MANY LOWER 60S. LOW LEVEL JET 
TAKES AIM INTO AREAS WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AS 850 RIDGE AXIS 
SHIFTS A BIT EAST. WILL KEEP SRN WI DRY FOR THE DAY PORTION...BUT SOME 
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. 

SUNDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

BEST FORCING WITH FOCUSED WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES INTO NWRN CWA 
BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z...THEN SPREADS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT 
WITH LOW-LEVEL JET. KEPT LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA WITH THE 
STRONGEST ISENTROPIC ADIABATIC OMEGA AND LOWEST CONDENSATION 
PRESSURE DEFICITS. BACKED OFF TO SHOWERS AND A MENTION OF 
THUNDERSTORMS FOR COLLABORATION BUT WITH ELEVATED CAPE VALUES 
TOPPING OUT BETWEEN 500 AND 700 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-
40KTS...THUNDER A GOOD BET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL.

EARLY LOWS THEN SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WARM 
ADVECTION.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

PCPN TAPERS OFF FOR A TIME MONDAY WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE AND 
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE...THOUGH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG 
SURFACE WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT LINGERS OVER REGION...THEN 
PCPN REDEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES WITH FORCING WITH APPROACHING 500 MB 
TROUGH. IN SPITE OF MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS OF STRUCTURE 
AND TIMING OF SURFACE/MID-LEVEL FEATURES... BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT.

NOT QUITE AS WARM AS EARLIER EXPECTED WITH TRACK OF INITIAL SURFACE 
WAVE KEEPING 925 MB TEMPS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES REDUCING THE IMPACT OF THE ALREADY LIMITED 
CONTRIBUTION OF THE LATE OCTOBER SUN. COLD AIR ADVECTION DELAYED 
UNTIL PASSAGE OF SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SO 
AN EAST TO WEST GRADIENT OF LOW TEMPS. 

TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LINGERS IN THE SOUTHEAST WITH SLIGHT CHANCES TO 
THE WEST TUESDAY MORNING UNTIL COOLER...DRIER AIR WORKS IN. COULD 
SEE SOME AFTERNOON SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WITH INSTABILITY AND 
MID-UPPER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AS 500 MB TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. 
COLDEST 925 MB TEMPS HOLD OFF TOT HE WEST THROUGH THE DAY...SO 
HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID-UPPER 50S. 

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE 
MEDIUM.

DRY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE THEN PCPN CHANCES 
RETURN WITH WAA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NEAR-
ZONAL FLOW...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT 
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH. COLD AIR STREAMS IN BEHIND THIS 
WAVE...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND A GOOD POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-EFFECT 
SHOWERS...WHICH MODELS KEEP WITH BEST CONVERGENCE OVER THE LAKE WITH 
EXPECTED OFFSHORE TURN TO WINDS DUE TO ISALLOBARIC GRADIENT WITH 
DENSITY DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN AIR MASSES OVER COOLER LAND AND WARMER 
LAKE WATER.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR SKC TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WNW 
WINDS WILL EASE THIS EVENING AS PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND 
DECENT MIXING IS REDUCED DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE 
AXIS NUDGES INTO WRN WI BY 12Z SUNDAY AND SHIFTS INTO LWR MI BY 00Z 
MONDAY. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH LLJ/MOIST ADVECTION STILL LOOKS TO BE 
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. 

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL EASE WITH REDUCED MIXING AND RELAXED 
GRADIENT SO WILL LEAVE SMALL CRAFT GOING UNTIL EXPIRATION AT 22Z. 

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
     LMZ643>646.

&&

$$

TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...REM