000
FXUS63 KMKX 050743
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
243 AM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008
.SHORT TERM...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN OVER WESTERN STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL CRASH INTO THE WESTERN RIDGE
AND FLATTEN IT...EVENTUALLY TURNING THE FLOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
WESTERLY ACROSS WISCONSIN.
TODAY-
ONE MORE DAY OF DECENT SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING KEEPING THIS
QUIET. THERMAL RIDGE EDGES A BIT CLOSER WITH 925 MB TEMPS
APPROACHING 20 C...SO SHOULD BE AROUND 80 MOST SPOTS AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN.
TONIGHT-
LOW LEVEL JET FROM KANSAS INTO UPPER MICHIGAN. GIVEN ANTICYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW...EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST. LOW DEWPOINTS AND
LIGHT WINDS SUGGEST IT RADIATES A FEW DEGREES MORE THAN MOS
GUIDANCE HAS.
SUNDAY-
FIRST SHORT WAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH WISCONSIN...WITH LOW LEVEL
JET SHIFTING A BIT MORE TO THE EAST AND EXTENDING FROM IOWA INTO
WISCONSIN. MOST OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF AREA UNTIL
AFTER DARK...BUT DO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE WEST OF MADISON.
GFS HAS LIS GOING TO -10 IN NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...AND SPC HAS DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK INTO WESTERN PART OF
CWA. THIS LOOKS OK.
MONDAY-
ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND INTO WISCONSIN AND IOWA MONDAY
NIGHT. LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS SHOWN MOVING INTO AREA...WITH LARGE
AREA OF -6 TO -10 LIS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
30 KNOT 850 MB JET AIMS RIGHT AT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...SO EXPECT AN
ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH ONE OR MORE MCS CRUISING OVER OR
NEARBY SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. NEW SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS SLIGHT RISK
OVER EXTREME WEST AND UPSTREAM.
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY-
STRONGEST TROUGH IN THE SERIES MOVES ACROSS MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN...PUSHING COLD FRONT THROUGH DURING THE PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT WEAK ALONG FRONT...BUT CONTINUED
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND INCREASING 500 MB FLOW TO 50 KNOTS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROUGH COULD RESULT IN THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER
FOR AREA. HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY AS OF LATE...BUT WIDESPREAD
FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUE TO MAKE ANY HEAVY RAIN THREAT
TROUBLESOME SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WET PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY-
LOOKS COOLER AND DRIER IN WAKE OF FRONT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG UNTIL 14Z
ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME PATCHY IFR IN LOW LYING AREAS UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE. SOME SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED AROUND 4 THSD
FT LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. INVERSION AROUND 5 THSD FT WITH
DRY AIR ABOVE...SO LITTLE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.MARINE...LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SOME LIGHT FOG/HAZE MAINLY THIS MORNING.
ONSHORE WINDS SHOULD TURN SOUTHEAST WITH DEVELOPING LAKE BREEZE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT/LONG TERM...CRAVEN/02
AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ/06
