000
FXUS64 KLUB 172027
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2008
.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AFTN HEATING HAS RESULTED IN
DECENT INSTABILITY WITH PERSISTENT SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWFA.
SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW...HOWEVER A RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH
BENEATH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
RATHER QUICKLY TWD SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE... SKIES WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SOUTH THEN EVENTUALLY EAST
OVERNIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY...INCREASING HEIGHTS AND WESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL RESULT
IN WARMER TEMPS...WITH AFTN HIGHS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 80S ON THE
CAPROCK WITH LWR 90S OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND READING NEAR
100 POSSIBLE. THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WE EXPECT A PATTERN
SHIFT WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
U.S.. IN RESPONSE TO THIS UPPER THROUGH...THE DRY LINE SHOULD
BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE THURSDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WE
GO INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO
SEE THEM GO HIGHER IF SUBSEQUENT MODELS RUNS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE PATTERN SHIFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 50 87 52 94 58 / 20 0 0 0 0
TULIA 51 89 54 94 57 / 20 0 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 51 88 54 95 61 / 20 0 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 51 88 55 95 60 / 20 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 52 89 57 95 64 / 20 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 51 87 57 95 62 / 20 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 52 88 57 96 59 / 20 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 55 92 59 97 66 / 10 0 0 0 0
SPUR 52 90 58 97 63 / 10 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 55 92 61 100 67 / 10 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21/04
