000
FXUS66 KLOX 042003 RRA
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
110 PM PDT FRI JUL 4 2008
.SHORT TERM...
SMALL TROF MOVING THROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE MOMENT. SW FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROF HAS ENTRAINED SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE WHICH HAS
CAUSED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW HAS LOWERED TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION WHILE SOUTH OFFSHORE TRENDS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH
HAVE INCREASED TEMPS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES.
SOME INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING UP THROUGH IMPERIAL
COUNTY AND INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THINK THIS MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT
TO THE SAN JACINTO MOUNTAINS BUT NOT INTO OUR CWA...AT WORST IT WILL
MAKE IT A LITTLE MORE CLOUDY BUT AN INSIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF THUNDER.
MARINE LAYER HAS BEEN BLOWN OUT BY THE TROF AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
A LITTLE BETTER EDDY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT...BUT THINK THAT
THE MARINE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME REFORMING AND THINK THAT
THE ONLY AREAS THAT WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE WESTERN
SBA COUNTY AND THE LA COUNTY COAST.
SUNDOWNERS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT BUT SBA-SMX GRADS ARE TRENDING ONSHORE
AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT. THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR A
15 TO 25 MPH EVENT WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
SATURDAY WILL VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY EXCEPT THAT IT WILL BE SUNNIER.
HGTS AND BL TEMPS ARE ABOUT THE SAME. CENTRAL COAST PRESSURE GRADS
WILL BE LIKE TODAY WHILE SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL SEE ONSHORE
TRENDS BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN THE
SAME NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND COOL A COUPLE OF DEGREES COASTS
AND VLYS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY HAS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FLATTEN OUT AND THE
RIDGE THAT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER ALL NEXT WEEK BEGINS TO PEAK IN
OUT OVER THE E PAC. BUT OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN HGTS OR
THICKNESS OR PRESSURE GRADS AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE BETWEEN
SAT AND SUN.
.LONG TERM...
HOT IS THE WORD FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. GFS AND EC ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GFS ENSEMBLE RUNS STAY COHERENT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WELL. AFTER THAT MANY DIFFERENCES APPEAR IN
PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE TROF PATTERN TO THE NORTH AND THE PLACEMENT
OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE UPPER HIGH MOVES OVER CALIFORNIA AND
TEMPS WILL RISE EACH DAY. ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE REDUCED AND WHATS
LEFT OF THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE CRUSHED TO UNDER 700 FEET. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO WARM NICELY.
AS THE HIGH IS TRANSITIONING OVER THE STATE THE MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO MONSOON TRANSPORT TO THE L.A.
MOUNTAINS AND THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD STAY CLEAR.
WITH THE MDLS NOT PREFORMING WELL PAST WEDNESDAY DO NOT HAVE A GREAT
DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN THE THURSDAY FRIDAY FORECAST. IN GENERAL IT
LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. HGTS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK
OF MONSOON EVENTS. MENTIONED A FEW BUILD UPS THURSDAY FRIDAY FOR THE
L.A./VTA MTNS AND DESERTS BUT NEED BETTER MDL AGREEMENT TO PUT IN
POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...
04/1830Z.
ALL TAF SITES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT THE
CENTRAL COAST AND KSBA PERHAPS DEALING WITH A LITTLE BIT OF HAZE AND
SMOKE DUE TO NEARBY FIRES. BY LATE THIS EVENING...A SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE COASTAL TAFS ON THE CENTRAL COAST AND
LOS ANGELES COUNTY. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY.
KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES UNTIL LATE THIS EVENING
WHEN THE MARINE CLOUDS RETURN WITH MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A CIG FREE NIGHT.
KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...SWEET
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES
