000
FXUS66 KLOX 181742
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1041 AM PDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A DEVELOPING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A WARMING TREND TO
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. A TIGHTENING NORTHERLY PRESSURE DIFFERENCE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MOUNTAINS...SOUTHERN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...ANOTHER DAY OF BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN
THE SAME AREAS, CENTRAL COAST, SRN SBA COUNTY, I5 CORRIDOR, AND
ANTELOPE VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY LEVELS IN ALL THOSE
AREAS. INVERSION REMAINS WEAK AND MARINE LYR CLOUDS WERE SPOTTY AT
BEST. GRADIENTS TRENDING A MB OR SO OFFSHORE SO WITH ALL ELSE BEING
PRETTY MUCH THE SAME MOST INLAND AREAS SHOULD SEE TEMPS A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY.
RIDGE BUILDS IN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, WITH MONDAY BEING THE
WARMEST DAY. MONDAY MORNING A DECENT LITTLE NORTHEAST PUSH SETS UP
MAINLY FOR THE VENTURA/LA MOUNTAINS. BUT THE COMBINATION OF THAT AND
THE RIDGE WILL BE ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPS UP INTO THE 90S FOR THE
WARMER VALLEYS. MARINE LYR SHOULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE SOLID AS THE
INVERSION STRENGTHENS, BUT COVERAGE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO LA
COUNTY COAST.
***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
ALL XTND MDLS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM AND NOTHING HAS
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST THINKING. A LARGE COOL UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PAC NW TUESDAY THEN SETTLE OVER OREGON AND THEN SPIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. TUESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH A GROWING
MARINE LAYER AND COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY
WEDNESDAY THE ONSHORE FLOW AND CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COMBINE TO DRIVE
THE LOW CLOUDS INTO THE VALLEYS. COASTAL CLEARING WILL BE SLOW AND
SOME BEACHES WILL LIKELY STAY CLOUDY. MAX TEMPS WILL DROP TO BELOW
NORMALS ACROSS THE COAST AND VLYS BUT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...18/1800Z.
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE UPSTREAM WILL APPROACH THE
AREA. UPPER LEVEL MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS AND MID LEVEL LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD
TOPS APPROXIMATELY 4KFT THIS MORNING WILL DIFFER BY MINUS 2.5KFT
SUNDAY MORNING. MIXED WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE AND NORTHERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KLAX...SCT 025 LIKELY THROUGH 18/20Z THEN CHANCE CIGS 012 BETWEEN
19/12-19/18Z.
KBUR...CHANCE VSBY 5SM HZ AFTER 09/10Z.
VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY - 80-95%
LIKELY - 60-80%
CHANCE - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY - 20% OR LESS
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MW/RORKE
SYNOPSIS...SWEET
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